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Old 10-20-2022, 10:01 PM   #46
headhawg
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Hey dorfman. Why don't you become a VIP and enter the contest? The world is full of blowhards like you. Prove something. Otherwise go back into your handicapping dreamland where you are the king.
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Old 10-20-2022, 11:07 PM   #47
Tom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delfman View Post
yeah, I don't know what I'm talking about!

Yup. I typed slowly, so looks like you got it.

$0.008
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Old 10-21-2022, 12:19 AM   #48
steveb
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Originally Posted by delfman View Post
your question does not do you much good without factoring in field size.
A 2-1 horse in a 6 horse field has a MUCH greater chance of winning than a 2-1 horse in a 12 horse field.



why, ignoring the fact that the 2/1(.333) is the implied prob regardless of field size?

how accurate the final odds are, will be a function of who is effectively making the odds(ie how good the players are), and not the size of the field.


obscure places with smaller pools will likely be less efficient but can't see what field size has to do with it.
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Old 10-21-2022, 01:16 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Why would I waste my time like that?

How about we play golf for $500?
Oh, wait. I don't play golf.

How about we break boards for $500?

I can do that.
(Still.)
Waste your time? Wouldn't beating delfman for a thousand bucks be a great marketing point? Get Dave's computer handicapping program and stomp your old pulling-it-out-of-your-ass handicapping.
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Old 10-21-2022, 01:38 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged View Post
Waste your time? Wouldn't beating delfman for a thousand bucks be a great marketing point? Get Dave's computer handicapping program and stomp your old pulling-it-out-of-your-ass handicapping.
A lost would far out weight a win!
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Old 10-21-2022, 03:32 PM   #51
Sea Hero
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Originally Posted by delfman View Post
IE - betting 2-1 shots in a 12 horse field going long on the turf for any condition other than high $ stakes horses is simply stupid.
betting 2-1 shots in a 6 horse field sprinting on the dirt is MUCH smarter IMO.
What are you smoking, dude?

It's the opposite. A 2-1 in a large, chaotic field got that price because it has a lot going for it...as opposed to a 2-1 in an analyzed to death field...who may be bet by people only because they are looking for something to beat the odds-on favorite.
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