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Old 08-23-2022, 08:29 PM   #1
PalaceOfFortLarned
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Travers Field Set

Travers field is set, post positions drawn, and MLs given.

Cyberknife 7-2
Rich Strike 10-1
Ain't Life Grand 20-1
Gilded Age 30-1
Artorius 9-2
Epicenter 7-5
Early Voting 8-1
Zandon 5-1

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123
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Old 08-23-2022, 08:50 PM   #2
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It's a terrific race, but imo the loss of Charge It hurt a bit. He was a wild card in terms of how he would run back off that last race and would have made for a better betting race.
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Old 08-23-2022, 09:02 PM   #3
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It's a terrific race, but imo the loss of Charge It hurt a bit. He was a wild card in terms of how he would run back off that last race and would have made for a better betting race.
You even equivocate when a horse doesn't run!
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Old 08-23-2022, 09:43 PM   #4
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Old 08-23-2022, 09:58 PM   #5
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Artorius is going to find out what real horses are just like the overrated Olympiad did.
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Old 08-23-2022, 10:14 PM   #6
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Old 08-23-2022, 10:19 PM   #7
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Artorius is going to find out what real horses are just like the overrated Olympiad did.
My fellow fairmount/fanduel colleague..there ain't no LIG in this race. artorius is live..
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Old 08-24-2022, 09:15 AM   #8
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Early Voting's flop in the jimmy d sure opened things up.
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Old 08-24-2022, 09:20 AM   #9
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Epicenter 7-5 won so easy last time against a slowish pace that he will be really hard to beat again. Maybe Cyberknife clears and wins? And I don't buy the Zandon excuse that he was too close to the pace. Epicenter is clearly better. GL
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Old 08-24-2022, 10:15 AM   #10
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You even equivocate when a horse doesn't run!
Unlike many horseplayers, I'm not arrogant enough to think I know all the answers. I just have data with probabilities. I would have liked 1-2 others mildly more than him on probability of winning, but I don't really see a bet in there now. I don't know anything about this race that everyone else doesn't already know too. I try to focus on what I know others are doing wrong. Maybe if there's a bias so subtle other people aren't picking up on it I'll find a bet, but don't expect me to tell anyone.
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Old 08-24-2022, 10:22 AM   #11
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Assuming all 8 horses run, where will Rich Strike finish? I will say 7th.
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Old 08-24-2022, 10:50 AM   #12
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Epicenter 7-5 won so easy last time against a slowish pace that he will be really hard to beat again. Maybe Cyberknife clears and wins? And I don't buy the Zandon excuse that he was too close to the pace. Epicenter is clearly better. GL
this race all depends on how good EPICENTER really is and what type of ride he is going to need to get the job done. EARLY VOTING is going to go to the lead and cross over on him, hopefully, he won't be the horse that chases him around the track. in the Jim Dandy, EPICENTER found the rear of the pack pretty easily and took off when Rosario pushed the button.
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Old 08-24-2022, 10:59 AM   #13
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Assuming all 8 horses run, where will Rich Strike finish? I will say 7th.
He's obviously less live than than his win in the Kentucky Derby suggests but IMO more live than those that are totally dismissing the race as a pace related fluke believe. He got a good setup and ride that day, but he also did some running.

IMO, it's less about whether his "A" race fits and more about the probability of him firing another "A" race like THAT and overcoming what is likely to be a moderate to slow pace. The Travers looks similar to the Jim Dandy pace wise where poor Zandon had to prompt. If it's not too slow early, I think Rich Strike could get a piece.
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Old 08-24-2022, 11:59 AM   #14
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Early Voting's flop in the jimmy d sure opened things up.
Perhaps Early Voting is a horse that needs is a target to run at like he got in the Preakness, nevertheless, in this spot he should be able to control the pace again.

He has the added advantage of another furlong, which may allow him to slow the tempo down a bit more (and take some starch out of the others' late moves). Furthermore, he may have been written him off based on his Jim Dandy wilt, which could mean no one will elect to press him early. Only Epicenter and Cyberknife really have the early speed to keep him honest, but they've been making a killing coming well off the pace in their most recent starts.

Early Voting was likely short for the Jim Dandy but he responded when challenged on all sides in upper stretch, only falling back for good once his jockey wrapped up on him inside the 1/16th pole.
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Old 08-24-2022, 07:54 PM   #15
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I sort of like the other Brown horse over Early Voting. He looked like a million bucks Jim Dandy day. A beast. He ran close up, off the layoff finished evenly. He may have been a little short without a race since the Derby. If that horse looks like he did and stalks again. He may just move forward. If that was truly a “prep” and he’s tighter ……. Contender a solid price hopefully. Zandon
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