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Old 05-21-2017, 02:31 AM   #181
classhandicapper
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
And if you show a LOSS after the 10 years...what do you do then? Select another one or more "overlaid businesses that you'd like to own"...and then wait another 10 years to try and get even? No Thanks!

I don't understand most horseplayers. They call horseracing "boring" because they have to wait for a few minutes in-between races...but then they sing praises to ANOTHER gambling game...where they have to sit around and "do nothing" for TEN YEARS, before they realize a profit.
Well, in stock market investing and horse racing if you pick bad horses it doesn't matter how long you wait. But to answer your question, ideally over time you should accumulate a portfolio that will contain some winners and losers that net out well. That's the way I have done it. I've held stocks for as long as 30 years, but sometimes I don't.

You'll never hear me whining about the time between races. I have no real need or desire for gambling action. I want the ego gratification that comes from winning.

I know from 40 years of experience what it takes for me to have a good chance of being in the black at the end of the year. It involves waiting until I have a positive or negative insight that is unlikely to be shared by a lot of people. That doesn't happen in a lot of races for me. There are too many smart people out there.

If I played the races like most other people, which is pretty much looking at the same information as everyone else and trying to interpret it better, I'd play way more races, but I'd spend a lot more time and energy and I'd probably either lose or be running in place on all that extra action.

The way I handicap is time consuming. The only way I can up my action is to automate to some extent. That's what I have been in the process of doing for the last 2 years. I create reports with possible plays across multiple tracks. I don't waste time on the rest. It's a matter of refining and testing the algorithms to match my thinking and produce potentially profitable situation.
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:24 PM   #182
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I've broken the 10% mark for the first time after yesterday's results:

Top pick went 7 for 24 and returned $82.50

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (46 Days):

96 for 449 | $898 Wagered | $997 Returned | $1.11 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 9 for 50 and returned $121.70

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (46 Days):

154 for 1071 | $2142 Wagered | $1943.40 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:30 PM   #183
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Those are awesome results.
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:43 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I've broken the 10% mark for the first time after yesterday's results:

Top pick went 7 for 24 and returned $82.50

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (46 Days):

96 for 449 | $898 Wagered | $997 Returned | $1.11 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 9 for 50 and returned $121.70

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (46 Days):

154 for 1071 | $2142 Wagered | $1943.40 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
Congratulations! It will be interesting to see the results of the next block of races, compared to the first (400) block. Many would believe it wise to "quit while ahead" and stop posting before (what some believe will be) the "inevitable decline." That is pure nonsense.

I think most realize that a 400 race sample does not necessarily illustrate a pattern of normally distributed events that will be perfectly replicated in the next 400 (or 4000, or 40,000) races. The point they miss is that--because it does not represent a "normal distribution over a very large sample"--it is equally likely that the next block of races will have even BETTER results than the original sample.

Personally, I hope you keep posting your selections (or the results at least--I don't pay much attention to the selections) and that you experience a long and illustrious pattern of continuous improvement in results. The horse race industry needs more (highly visible) winners and fewer whiners. Again, congratulations on your accomplishment.
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:46 PM   #185
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Congratulations! It will be interesting to see the results of the next block of races, compared to the first (400) block. Many would believe it wise to "quit while ahead" and stop posting before (what some believe will be) the "inevitable decline." That is pure nonsense.

I think most realize that a 400 race sample does not necessarily illustrate a pattern of normally distributed events that will be perfectly replicated in the next 400 (or 4000, or 40,000) races. The point they miss is that--because it does not represent a "normal distribution over a very large sample"--it is equally likely that the next block of races will have even BETTER results than the original sample.

Personally, I hope you keep posting your selections (or the results at least--I don't pay much attention to the selections) and that you experience a long and illustrious pattern of continuous improvement in results. The horse race industry needs more (highly visible) winners and fewer whiners. Again, congratulations on your accomplishment.
Does the fact that I post plays for every track in the country and don't discriminate by track, distance, or surface, play any part in making these current results more "normally distributed" then you may have originally thought?
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Old 05-21-2017, 01:51 PM   #186
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Does the fact that I post plays for every track in the country and don't discriminate by track, distance, or surface, play any part in making these current results more "normally distributed" then you may have originally thought?

Let me ask you a question: given what you already know (and you indicated in the quote) why would you think that your results wouldn't be consistent going forward?
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:14 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I've broken the 10% mark for the first time after yesterday's results:

Top pick went 7 for 24 and returned $82.50

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (46 Days):

96 for 449 | $898 Wagered | $997 Returned | $1.11 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 9 for 50 and returned $121.70

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (46 Days):

154 for 1071 | $2142 Wagered | $1943.40 returned | $0.91 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
When you bet real money...do you bet only on your top choice...or do you bet on all the "overlays" in the race? The few times that I've seen you bet "live" here, you've been betting on multiple horses in the same race.
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:16 PM   #188
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Let me ask you a question: given what you already know (and you indicated in the quote) why would you think that your results wouldn't be consistent going forward?
I do think they'll be consistent going forward. I've seen myself lose almost 20 in a row more than once during my almost 50 days of posting picks here, and didn't panic, didn't change anything, and it all leveled out during the next swing of plays.

I do very much think, barring any fundamental changes in the way TFUS creates its numbers, that this will continue going forward. Unless enough people figure out how to create a duplicate line and start playing my way.
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:17 PM   #189
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When you bet real money...do you bet only on your top choice...or do you bet on all the "overlays" in the race? The few times that I've seen you bet "live" here, you've been betting on multiple horses in the same race.
I stopped betting on the "others," but continue to post "On" for any overlays, just to make the record keeping easier. I will also bet on an "other" if it's close on my line to the top choice and is at a price that is just too juicy to pass up.
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:21 PM   #190
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I stopped betting on the "others," but continue to post "On" for any overlays, just to make the record keeping easier. I will also bet on an "other" if it's close on my line to the top choice and is at a price that is just too juicy to pass up.
I've always found that I really improve my results if I eliminate the lower odds horses, actual off odds I mean. Have you checked your bets by odds? Are the profits pretty even over various odds or is there a spike somewhere?
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:24 PM   #191
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A lot of my play is similar Pace. I admire the exhausting duty to document plays! I track contenders and keep bet records but to add the public to the to do list is something. I stopped doing conventional oddslines because the stripping down did not address the reality of of contentious races. I keep it simple as kindergarten. A-B-C+. Those are the only contenders. Only bet AB because the rest are weak and not at big mutuels. I don't bet all these mainly fretting over the $6-9 range! But basic picks this is what I have to work from. Here is the latest batch. They are all fairly similar.

Attached Images
File Type: png contenders 1.PNG (35.7 KB, 26 views)
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:26 PM   #192
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I've always found that I really improve my results if I eliminate the lower odds horses, actual off odds I mean. Have you checked your bets by odds? Are the profits pretty even over various odds or is there a spike somewhere?
My record keeping barely goes beyond what I've posted publicly, so I don't have an answer to your question...
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:32 PM   #193
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I realize this is a small sample size but here are the results of 127 races I posted in the selections forum.

The early end of the 30 day challenge. I understand 127 races is a small sample size but here are the results after 10 days.

127 races
27 wins
21% win percetage

$297.20 returned from
$254.00 wagered
+ $43.20
1.17 ROI

I didn't use video trip handicapping, but i did use a formula that weighs heavily on pace and speed.

I don't mean to denegrate anyones form of handicapping, only did this to prove that I could eke out a profit.
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:37 PM   #194
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I realize this is a small sample size but here are the results of 127 races I posted in the selections forum.

The early end of the 30 day challenge. I understand 127 races is a small sample size but here are the results after 10 days.

127 races
27 wins
21% win percetage

$297.20 returned from
$254.00 wagered
+ $43.20
1.17 ROI

I didn't use video trip handicapping, but i did use a formula that weighs heavily on pace and speed.

I don't mean to denegrate anyones form of handicapping, only did this to prove that I could eke out a profit.
That is a very nice "eke".
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Old 05-21-2017, 02:51 PM   #195
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That is a very nice "eke".
Thanks, CJ. I also found it (the formula) works the same for turf, dirt, sprints, routes, quarters, small tracks as well as large, east coast as well as west.

Thanks also to P A for laying down the gauntlet and issuing the challenge.
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