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Old 03-26-2015, 01:59 PM   #1
Dark Horse
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Mr Jon White...

Why are the odds for races 5 and 6 adding up to 150% today at Santa Anita?

Your usual 135% is already way too high, but 150%?!

What's next? 200%? Learn some basic math, friend.


(I can't find the original thread that was dedicated to this topic before, but feel free to merge this with that one).
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:25 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
(I can't find the original thread that was dedicated to this topic before, but feel free to merge this with that one).
Is the following thread the one that you had in mind?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Jon+White
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:25 PM   #3
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Good post...XLNT continuing topic...

There's always a "mystery" horse that the players are playing against. It's usually inflated by about 14-15% = another 6/1 shot in the race who isn't running.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:34 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlay
Is the following thread the one that you had in mind?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Jon+White
Yes it is. Thanks. Successful computerized ML's were even discussed there, and we have to put up with this 150% nonsense.
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Old 03-26-2015, 02:37 PM   #5
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Why would anyone care about morning lines?
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Old 03-26-2015, 03:09 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Why would anyone care about morning lines?
People have their reasons, but that's not the point. The point is that they're part of the game, and therefore should be approached with a level of professionalism.
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Old 03-26-2015, 03:26 PM   #7
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Correction. Race 6 adds up to 150%. Race 5 is still much too high, but not that high.
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Old 03-26-2015, 03:38 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Horse
Correction. Race 6 adds up to 150%. Race 5 is still much too high, but not that high.
He revised the ml yesterday after a scratch was put in for the 1 Pulling G's and the horse was "stuck". He usually waits to revise the line until the scratch is actually official but he changed the lines early for some reason on both the 3rd & 6th races today which both had "stuck" horses. So remove the 1 from your calculations and it will be in the normal range for his morning lines.

Last edited by dasch; 03-26-2015 at 03:43 PM.
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Old 03-26-2015, 05:10 PM   #9
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I heard he deflates odds on many runners "in case" there is a scratch. I've spoken about this ad nauseum. Worst in the business.
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:08 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
I heard he deflates odds on many runners "in case" there is a scratch. I've spoken about this ad nauseum. Worst in the business.
When i see a fraudulent morning line, it makes me wonder what other fraud is going on behind the scenes. Certainly doesn't give one confidence that everything there is on the up and up.
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Old 03-26-2015, 07:47 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valento
I heard he deflates odds on many runners "in case" there is a scratch. I've spoken about this ad nauseum. Worst in the business.
I don't doubt you, but that's ridiculous.

He's the only morning line maker that religiously posts a
revised M/L when a prominent horse in the betting scratches.

Talk about redundant......

I'm done talking about Mr. White, though.
He does what he does, and we're not going to change it.
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Old 03-26-2015, 08:42 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
When i see a fraudulent morning line, it makes me wonder what other fraud is going on behind the scenes. Certainly doesn't give one confidence that everything there is on the up and up.
When it comes to the morning line, from my experience, it is not fraud, it's incompetence.
You give people waaaay to much credit for being sharp. Again, from what I saw and dealt with, it is simply people that have no clue what they are actually doing.

So many customers are fearful that management and the people that make the show happen actually have a clue when it comes to something like this. I would bet that there are some. But I would bet the entire bankroll that the idiots out number the sharps. It would be the lock of the century.
Gotta trust me here, you give them waaaay too much credit.

Very nice catch Dark Horse.

Last edited by Ruffian1; 03-26-2015 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 03-26-2015, 09:45 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruffian1
When it comes to the morning line, from my experience, it is not fraud, it's incompetence.
You give people waaaay to much credit for being sharp. Again, from what I saw and dealt with, it is simply people that have no clue what they are actually doing.

So many customers are fearful that management and the people that make the show happen actually have a clue when it comes to something like this. I would bet that there are some. But I would bet the entire bankroll that the idiots out number the sharps. It would be the lock of the century.
Gotta trust me here, you give them waaaay too much credit.

Very nice catch Dark Horse.
I know what you're saying, i just didn't think it took a rocket scientist for an expert morning line maker to make a proper ML.

He's either stupid, or he's making a bad ML on purpose.
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Old 03-26-2015, 10:24 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
I don't doubt you, but that's ridiculous.

He's the only morning line maker that religiously posts a
revised M/L when a prominent horse in the betting scratches.

Talk about redundant......

I'm done talking about Mr. White, though.
He does what he does, and we're not going to change it.
http://jasonbeem.com/2015/03/10/the-...e-4-brad-free/

Scroll up to the 25:45 minute mark
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Last edited by Valento; 03-26-2015 at 10:28 PM.
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Old 03-27-2015, 03:17 PM   #15
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For one of the main tracks in the country Santa Anita can be painfully disrespectful to players. Not just the insistence on Mr. White, who, judging from his own words yesterday, seems to be stuck in the seventies, but even with such basic matters as photo finishes.

In yesterday's R7 a 16/1 horse beat a 3/2 favorite at the wire. It couldn't have been closer. A photo finish, but.... no photo presented after the race, as even a funky track like Turf Paradise will do. So we turn the next day to the Santa Anita website. Two photos for yesterday. But not including the race in question. WTF?! In this case I had the winner and wanted the pic for my records, but what if I had been on the 3/2 horse? Bettors have to take the track at its word, and forget about the photo evidence? Can you really tell who won this race: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-sa-on-3-26-15 If not, give me any main track in the US that will not produce the photo.

Last edited by Dark Horse; 03-27-2015 at 03:26 PM.
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