*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[Bennie]

greg - races with blinkers off are usually the only races my friend will play. It is also where he gets the nickname we call him, "Blinkers". Mine is computer or numbers because I always brought CJ's pace numbers with me to the track.
Anyway, he looks for the equipment change for a horse who has shown early pace but usually fades with the thinking the blinkers off will help the horse relax somewhat and have something left at the end, sometimes sitting midpack and closing. The horse has to show in it's previous races that it can run a number that would be competitive with the field today. Also, less than 10-1 he will only use it in superfectas, which he also only plays cold. he will also use it in whichever position he thinks it will finish. Could be 1st or 4th. He will use it with horses from a common race if there is any. If the horse is 10-1 or higher he will flat bet the horse.
Through the years I have been keeping mental notes and find that when a horse ends up the race favorite it will almost always finish off the board. We also won't play a horse that has been running without, put them on it's last race and is taking them off again. My friend is very select and there have been times where he came to off-track, bought the racing form,found no blinkers off or they didn't meet our few simple rules and turned around and went back home.
I have also found that they seem to run in streaks. You can hit nothing for a couple of weeks and then they don't seem to lose for a couple of days.I also look for a positive trainer change as opposed to a jock change. Just our thing.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Race 6 MVR- I like longshots 4/1/9 with the favors. of your choice. Totally long shots.

MVR 7th race, #8 10-1ML opens at 6/5 favorite, now drifting up to 7/2. hmm. Mo Don't No

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

...

Well, the first timer full sib to big money winner debuting for $16k without the customary string of :46.2 half-miles bad favorite play against part worked out... but the rest...

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

MVR 7th race, #8 10-1ML opens at 6/5 favorite, now drifting up to 7/2. hmm. Mo Don't No

Ahem. 13.80 after DQ. seemed pretty mild from my one quick look. Doing stuff with my 3 y.o. grandson so I didn't get to review the exactas with the two favorites, but would almost bet that they were showing a betdown as well as the opening odds flash.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Ahem. 13.80 after DQ. seemed pretty mild from my one quick look. Doing stuff with my 3 y.o. grandson so I didn't get to review the exactas with the two favorites, but would almost bet that they were showing a betdown as well as the opening odds flash.

racw9 #3-where's the button for exacta pools? 18.40 winner.

[biggestal99]

Need help.

I am playing in an Nhc contest using exchange sp (starting price) on Friday.

I really want to do well. I will be using pace view exclusively to make my wagers

Here are the rules

1. Must make 10--20 dollar real money win wagers (either for or against)

2. Races are woodbine 1-7 and Hawthorne 1-3

So what should be the minimum odds I should look for.

I was thinking 5-1 or so...

But I am flexible, if someone would offer me advice, I will strongly consider it.

Thanks

Allan

[NorCalGreg]

Was going to mention something to you Al---next time you posted. The ABILITY FIG...I've noticed time and again a favorite not near the top on that rating has turned out to be shaky. Check it out, any further discussion we'll have to do it in email or PM.

Good luck buddy

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Was going to ask if PARX had a casino--one visit to the site and 30 seconds later told me all I needed to see---hell yes it's a racino. The racing side of it is a colorless afterthought--the casino part is this gorgeous, breathtakingly designed website.

I had to go off-site to get weather info--anyone with a website can get a free local weather app for their site. I went to their twitter feed first---still says CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WINDS---from yesterday. They haven't bothered to take that down yet--or update.

The weather is fine there, BTW. It's called "bensalem racing" ...at first I thought that might be some weird backwards thing like AK-SAR-BEN but
BENSALEM backwards is MEL-AS-NEB lol. Just being silly now.

On behalf of the Raider Nation:

Good Job Raiders!! Thanks Officials! Thanks Texans!! Thanks Vegas Boy!!

[NorCalGreg]

Since there is absolutely no reason on earth for Parx not to run today:

PARX

2ND CHIPPEWAWHITECHIEF 15-1

7TH INFINITE FIESTA 6-1

MVR

3RD PROPER TOUCH 8-1

That's about it today. I'm working out a method right now--it sorted bombed out on me but I'm still a' tweakin and adjusting--it's pretty solid logically I THINK. The two underlined picks are from my method.

Anyone got anything else--please have at it.--NCG

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Was going to ask if PARX had a casino--one visit to the site and 30 seconds later told me all I needed to see---hell yes it's a racino. The racing side of it is a colorless afterthought--the casino part is this gorgeous, breathtakingly designed website.

I had to go off-site to get weather info--anyone with a website can get a free local weather app for their site. I went to their twitter feed first---still says CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WINDS---from yesterday. They haven't bothered to take that down yet--or update.

The weather is fine there, BTW. It's called "bensalem racing" ...at first I thought that might be some weird backwards thing like AK-SAR-BEN but
BENSALEM backwards is MEL-AS-NEB lol. Just being silly now.

On behalf of the Raider Nation:

Good Job Raiders!! Thanks Officials! Thanks Texans!! Thanks Vegas Boy!!

I guess youre better at picking football winners

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Since there is absolutely no reason on earth for Parx not to run today:

PARX

2ND CHIPPEWAWHITECHIEF 15-1

7TH INFINITE FIESTA 6-1

MVR

3RD PROPER TOUCH 8-1

That's about it today. I'm working out a method right now--it sorted bombed out on me but I'm still a' tweakin and adjusting--it's pretty solid logically I THINK. The two underlined picks are from my method.

Anyone got anything else--please have at it.--NCG

Greg,
The #9-ChippewaWCh looks like he might be able to set the pace in 2nd at Parx, but I'm looking at 5 horses, very tough IMO. I'm thinking that #4, Little Jimmy might be able to get in for a piece, real longshot. Too many contenders all ran their best SR in their last race.

We're in agreement on Infinite Fiesta in Parx 7th. he shows the Good Esp pattern I like and also like the 4-No More Strippers at 5-1 ML. Close to same pattern. yesterday, horses with No MOre in names have been good to me. T

In the 3rdMVR- I like #4-Misterbulltoyou with his +12 Sp Improv Big Win at lower and moving up. Also #1 Devoted Wildcat to get in the picture.
4/7/1.

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Since there is absolutely no reason on earth for Parx not to run today:

[B]PARX

2ND CHIPPEWAWHITECHIEF 15-1

So many of these horses have speed, but no heart. The 2 AE's have scratched in. I'm a sucker for that angle. I'm going with . The horse has speed and a little bit of heart.

In race 7 at Parx, going with

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

I will be using pace view exclusively to make my wagers

good lord. I am gonna wear a shirt with my three favorite websites when I make it to Vegas.

1. Betfair.com

2. Paceview.com

3. Paceadvantage.com

hope that will satisfy all.

Allan

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

...

Anyone got anything else--please have at it.--NCG

Early pick 3/4 sequence at TuP is enchanting.

That third leg, race three. Older fillies and mares, maidens, six and a half, a field of seven and a 3-5 M/L favorite with a 5-2 second choice that cannot run much at all. This is a bad, bad group of maiden mares.

The 3-5 favorite (known heretoforth as 'Fave' as opposed to the mess that is its actual name) looks awfully good on paper just on numbers. She hasn't run a billion times, has been competitive just about every time (7-0-3-2-2), has even been claimed once - I mean, you can understand this one being a 3-5 M/L. And you can also understand it being a single on 90% of all pick four tickets sold.

So that means the race has to be looked at for an opportunity to take a shot at being in the 10% and eliminate the other 9% hopefully in the other 3 legs. The bad news here is that there are not a lot of alluring alternatives to Fave to be found in this bunch.

But, one thing about the race at a glance is that someone is kind of going to need to make a conscious decision to go for the lead and try for it. There is no obvious speed players in here. Fave, though typically settling off the pace and making a late run, is piloted by the immortal and legendary Aki the Jockey and with extreme age comes some downside but you get a little wisdom too at least and would shock me not the least to see Kato leave there intent on making them beat the best horse.

Beyond that you have the rail horse as the most likely, but nothing worse than needing the rail horse to be your speed. Especially after some weather and a bad track. Way too often they just can't help but break just behind the outside horses. And on the subject of the track, there is some nice breeze and sunshine where I am so I assume the same is down there. I'd rather gamble a little on the mid-track crown-region strip of pavement being a good spot and find an outside horse in here if possible.

So, I wind up getting into Classy Schiller. I want to be completely clear, this filly is awful. She is 0 fer 26 and has but five seconds and a third to show for anything.

But (oh boy), she was run hard and often last meet after being claimed, with Ms. Campo I guess thinking she needed to be on turf and might be a good broodmare or something. I don't know. She hadn't been lighting the world on fire before being claimed and things didn't improve a lot. But, by the end of the meet it seems that she was looking for a new home and got one along with a nice summer break.

She has run once since the summer break and didn't do much, but the worktab in preparation for the return looks not like getting ready to win off the shelf but just getting ready to survive a race off the shelf. She survived and comes right back in short order here.

I hope the jock gets her away good from the outside and keeps after this plodding filly to stay close early. They aren't going to be flying, I can't imagine. She can improve off of her last and as bad as she is, she may have never been in a field quite this awful where a little tactic might mitigate an inherent deficiency.

I'm probably blowing some thick smoke, but I can't let these scenarios pass unchallenged and that's the best I can do. As far as actually betting her in the race, I think I need at least 10-1. I want a shot at a big slice of the pick four pool with dreams of 50-1 on my ticket.

[REBel]

Parx, race 9, #8 SHENANGO VALLEY

Three improving speed ratings, 2nd Top Power, top E1 & E2, top jock, back in 17 days,

top speed, top prime, speed blast, early power and 2nd ability. ML 5/1

NEEDS TO HANG ON THIS TIME!!

REBel