*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Now for the interesting part I mentioned: At Parx in the 2ND Race @ 8-1 ML is HONOR COMMITMENT.
Sharp trainer Pino caught someone dropping their horse down in an attempt to color up his form. It's very obvious by the last running line--and there was Pino to drop that ticket and assume ownership of a ready-made and bettable horse. He can score both at the purser's office and the window.

-NCG

Nice going, Greg. $12.20 to win.

[green80]

Looks like at TUP dirt sprints, E1 E2 and top ability is the play. On turf routes, the late horse or Turf Blast is the play to go with. Taking that top late horse doesn't win all the time but gave me some nice ones here and there.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, how do BRIS speed ratings compare to Equibase? Someone else asked me, and I wasn't sure.

I've seen comparative studies---between them. There's a couple consistent ticks difference, but sticking to one or the other doesn't seem to matter.

People on this board have totally trashed EQ's Speed and Pace numbers....more because it's fashionable-- or they're an easy target---than having some solid evidence to back this up with.

I wish I knew your first name ...where do you stand on this? What figs do you use Whosonfirst?

[NorCalGreg]

Most of my speed horses scratched or didn't meet the odds req--that last Parx horse actually did but ran 3rd.

HONOR COMITMENT scored nicely off the Pino claim---caught somebody with their hand in the cookie jar. I didn't get a form, anyone know who that trainer was? Platinum PP's only list today's trainer.

Just realized I can get one free at Twin Spires so I'll go take a look--NCG

BTW Joe....I like the sound of that triple action. Lot of possibilities with that move.

[upthecreek]

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm

[Cice]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Most of my speed horses scratched or didn't meet the odds req--that last Parx horse actually did but ran 3rd.

HONOR COMITMENT scored nicely off the Pino claim---caught somebody with their hand in the cookie jar. I didn't get a form, anyone know who that trainer was? Platinum PP's only list today's trainer.

Just realized I can get one free at Twin Spires so I'll go take a look--NCG

BTW Joe....I like the sound of that triple action. Lot of possibilities with that move.

Claimed from R Preciado.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I've seen comparative studies---between them. There's a couple consistent ticks difference, but sticking to one or the other doesn't seem to matter.

People on this board have totally trashed EQ's Speed and Pace numbers....more because it's fashionable-- or they're an easy target---than having some solid evidence to back this up with.

I wish I knew your first name ...where do you stand on this? What figs do you use Whosonfirst?

Greg, sorry I go by my middle name, Trace. I've seen some funky Equi ratings that don't track relative with the old speed ratings, but not often. If I have any doubts, I may do my own true times for total and pace, to see what's going on. I generally do use the Equibase, since I don't have to fool with a variant. And I've uncovered some nice longshots just using Equibase's pace ratings when the overall speed ratings aren't showing me any advantages. But I haven't done enough study on their pace numbers yet.

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

BTW Joe....I like the sound of that triple action. Lot of possibilities with that move.

The trick ,of course, is picking the winner, to try to keep the wager amount down. You could use current odds at 5 MTP, instead of M/L odds, but at small tracks with small pools, the odds go all over the place the last 3 or 4 minutes,and the M/L at those small tracks is a lot less reliable also. Just concentrating on top 4 M/L for the winner is a good way to go. I think the top 4 M/L horses win like 75-80 % of the races.

[NorCalGreg]

Something I noticed AGAIN today---I've been meaning to bring up for months just forget to. It's something that happens all the time...every horseplayer that's been around the game for awhile is aware of this.

If you aren't then it's time you became aware of it. I call it the "Sucker Bet" --you may have another name for it, I don't know if it has an official name but SUCKER BET fits it perfectly.

I'm only going to show one quick example, but if I wanted to---I could get 10 examples in a couple hours....that's how common it is.

This was one at Turf Paradise today in the 3rd race--Diodoro horse named ALWAYS A CHANCE. Went off @ 3-10 odds. This horse was such a completely dominating standout--you have to wonder why he was even allowed in the race in the first place

Every single way of rating a horse--Always a Chance dominated. There was absolutely no way he could lose. These are just the type of horses the public hammers. As I mentioned earlier--he went off at 3-5---classic sucker bet.

Most of these horses will be patched up enough to run second, just on class alone. They RARELY win. This one took 50 days off to be presentable enough to draw a claim---which he did.

All the signals were there...who enters a sound, dominating animal for half his value?

This is hardly a "solid wager" at 2-1 let alone 3-10.

[NorCalGreg]

In trying to figure a way to profit from the "sucker bet" syndrome...this is a possibility:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm

Thanks UTC...that's the rating of the different ratings I saw---they're all in the same ballpark....except the one no one's ever heard of

Thank you Cice---I love that guy Preciado. He's one of about a dozen trainers you could make a living on just learning their every move.

[NorCalGreg]

...and who isn't? He's got 3 going at Belmont tomorrow--I'll take a good long look---suggest you do the same--Oracle had a write-up on him on the main board recently, as well...shouldn't be hard to find

[NorCalGreg]

I realize it's after 4AM here on the "normal side" of the country....usually when I have some peace and quiet finally. Been running around for a couple weeks though, not getting much sleep--so having a hard time focusing on anything right now. At least that's my excuse. I'll explain what I mean in a minute.

Looked over the Belmont card--only saw one real wager I wouldn't hesitate on:

8TH RACE HAVANA MOON 6-1 looks good to me. I've said before many times--I'm really a low-level claiming player--the cheaper the better. Some don't like the games and shenanigans that are played from race to race at that level....heck, that's what makes it fun. The fancy Hi-Falutin' Stakes Races where everyone is trying to win--what fun is that?

Got three longshot STABS as well, at Belmont....none are Gary Sciacca's though. Making win bets on these three, and instead of place bets- putting Platinum 1-2 Power in front in small exacta savers:

1ST CHOSEN ONE ELIJAH 20-1

2ND CORA MOSS 12-1

7TH SARATIAGO 20-1

Here's what I'm talking about....either I'm so tired I don't even realize how the game of horse racing is played anymore--or NY has turned into some weird-a$$ bizarro world.

In the 9th race---it clearly states (I've included the conditions) it states it is a MAIDEN RACE....now here in CALIFORNIA a MAIDEN RACE is for MAIDENS--horses that have never won a race......RIGHT?

Evidently that is not the case in NY. It clearly shows this horse won 3 days ago--wasnt disqualified...yet here he is! Also he's listed @ 20-1 ML His Bris speed for that win was a 96? His connections should be thinking DERBY 2017
I'm getting dizzy. I better go lay down.

Let me post up my GPW horses real quick while I can still type:

2ND A SQUARE TO SPARE 3-1

3RD SCHWEETS 3-1

4TH GRAN IDENTIDAD 5-1

5TH DAZZLING DIXIE 6-1

8TH JE NE SAIS PAS 3-1


You all can figure that maiden race out

have a good day

-NCG

[Cice]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I realize it's after 4AM here on the "normal side" of the country....usually when I have some peace and quiet finally. Been running around for a couple weeks though, not getting much sleep--so having a hard time focusing on anything right now. At least that's my excuse. I'll explain what I mean in a minute.

Looked over the Belmont card--only saw one real wager I wouldn't hesitate on:

8TH RACE HAVANA MOON 6-1 looks good to me. I've said before many times--I'm really a low-level claiming player--the cheaper the better. Some don't like the games and shenanigans that are played from race to race at that level....heck, that's what makes it fun. The fancy Hi-Falutin' Stakes Races where everyone is trying to win--what fun is that?

Got three longshot STABS as well, at Belmont....none are Gary Sciacca's though. Making win bets on these three, and instead of place bets- putting Platinum 1-2 Power in front in small exacta savers:

1ST CHOSEN ONE ELIJAH 20-1

2ND CORA MOSS 12-1

7TH SARATIAGO 20-1

Here's what I'm talking about....either I'm so tired I don't even realize how the game of horse racing is played anymore--or NY has turned into some weird-a$$ bizarro world.

In the 9th race---it clearly states (I've included the conditions) it states it is a MAIDEN RACE....now here in CALIFORNIA a MAIDEN RACE is for MAIDENS--horses that have never won a race......RIGHT?

Evidently that is not the case in NY. It clearly shows this horse won 3 days ago--wasnt disqualified...yet here he is! Also he's listed @ 20-1 ML His Bris speed for that win was a 96? His connections should be thinking DERBY 2017
I'm getting dizzy. I better go lay down.

Let me post up my GPW horses real quick while I can still type:

2ND A SQUARE TO SPARE 3-1

3RD SCHWEETS 3-1

4TH GRAN IDENTIDAD 5-1

5TH DAZZLING DIXIE 6-1

8TH JE NE SAIS PAS 3-1


You all can figure that maiden race out

have a good day

-NCG

I'm guessing, he was entered for both days, won and when they re-did the pps with the odds, they included the win. He will be scratched.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Cice

I'm guessing, he was entered for both days, won and when they re-did the pps with the odds, they included the win. He will be scratched.

The 20-1 M/L would seem to confirm something along those lines (supposing if I went back he might have been a MTO) as the oddsmaker seemingly didn't want a certain scratch messing up the line.