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06-14-2019, 01:07 PM
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#46
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,938
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The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.
Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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06-14-2019, 01:09 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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*trier
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06-14-2019, 01:12 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.
Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.
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TX, Tom. Do me a favor, watch the guy on a horse and tell me if my characterization was accurate.
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06-14-2019, 01:52 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
The cure for not being criticized for being a lousy rider is not to ride lousy.
Derby -day, always a good day for me at the Mountain.
Looking forward.
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I turned most of this year's recruiting over to my brother, Gary. He's an ex-trainer and jock's agent new to the office, but as sharp as they come. Gary is making tons of phone calls and busting his hump on the derby.
I just wish there was an intimidating horse to scare Haskell prospects our way.
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06-14-2019, 02:05 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,298
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Imo, the stats often have a way of speaking for themselves.
This is what I have for MNR rider standings 2019 ytd:
Code:
****************************************************************************************
MNR 2019 BY RIDER sorted by wins Run Date: 6/14/2019 10:18:05 AM
****************************************************************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
NAME MOUNTS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
****************************************************************************************
BARBARAN ERIK 134 37 0.2761 1.8021 0.9134 56 0.4179 0.7127
QUINONES LUIS M 131 34 0.2595 1.6937 0.9282 58 0.4427 0.8412
OLIVEROS CHARLE 119 26 0.2185 1.4261 0.7782 48 0.4034 0.858
GONZALEZ ALEX 117 19 0.1624 1.06 0.7385 34 0.2906 0.7744
HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 132 18 0.1364 0.8903 0.7242 34 0.2576 0.572
ORTIZ WILKIN 107 16 0.1495 0.9758 1.0757 33 0.3084 0.7785
YARANGA YURI 106 14 0.1321 0.8622 0.7575 26 0.2453 0.9189
WILLIAMS AJHARI 102 13 0.1275 0.8322 0.4706 27 0.2647 0.5971
SERRANO KEIVAN 95 13 0.1368 0.8929 0.9042 26 0.2737 0.8337
RAMGEET ANDREW R 68 10 0.1471 0.9601 0.4191 24 0.3529 0.7809
BATISTA LUIS A 46 9 0.1957 1.2773 0.8826 19 0.413 0.7848
RIVERA LUIS RAUL 34 8 0.2353 1.5358 0.4529 16 0.4706 0.9706
GONZALEZ KEVIN 90 6 0.0667 0.4353 0.7144 13 0.1444 0.6922
BARRIOS RICARDO 78 6 0.0769 0.5019 0.4449 18 0.2308 0.7564
PAUCAR EDGAR 32 5 0.1563 1.0202 1.9156 13 0.4063 1.5531
HOUGHTON T D 19 4 0.2105 1.3739 2.2211 6 0.3158 1.1316
JURADO EDDIE 58 3 0.0517 0.3374 0.2293 10 0.1724 0.6121
CCAMAQUE MARCO A 28 3 0.1071 0.699 0.2714 7 0.25 0.5321
HOLBROOK LOGAN 50 2 0.04 0.2611 0.244 4 0.08 0.234
DAVILA JOSE M 30 2 0.0667 0.4353 0.6233 5 0.1667 0.6233
BOCACHICA ARNALDO 3 2 0.6667 4.3515 1.1 3 1 1.2333
STANLEY ANGEL ORTEG 7 1 0.1429 0.9327 0.3571 3 0.4286 2.1714
VIGIL NOEL 4 1 0.25 1.6317 1.625 2 0.5 2.2
ALMODOVAR GERALD 4 1 0.25 1.6317 0.3 3 0.75 1.125
PELTROCHE FREDY 3 1 0.3333 2.1754 0.5 2 0.6667 0.8667
HO WESLEY 3 1 0.3333 2.1754 1.3 1 0.3333 0.7667
ROSARIO JR HECTOR L 3 1 0.3333 2.1754 1.6 1 0.3333 0.7
BEATO INOEL 2 1 0.5 3.2635 0.9 1 0.5 0.65
VELEZ JUAN J L 2 1 0.5 3.2635 0.8 0 0 0
GARCIA GEOVANY 1 1 1 6.5269 2.9 1 1 1.9
WHITACRE GRANT 1 1 1 6.5269 1.7 1 1 1.4
SANTIAGO GILBERTO 27 0 0 0 0 2 0.0741 0.1963
SANTIAGO VICTOR 13 0 0 0 0 1 0.0769 0.1231
SANTOS OSMAN 7 0 0 0 0 1 0.1429 0.5714
HYNES TARA 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SIMPSON JASON 5 0 0 0 0 3 0.6 1.5
DIAZ RENZO 4 0 0 0 0 2 0.5 1.45
MORALES KELVIN 4 0 0 0 0 2 0.5 1.025
RIVERA JAVIER 4 0 0 0 0 1 0.25 0.375
ROCHA WLADIMIR 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
THORPE DARIUS 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LARROSA GUSTAVO 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FIGUEROA SERGIO 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHEW GLENMORE W 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAGUNES GABRIEL 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 3.15
SPIETH SCOTT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BERRIOS HECTOR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOLEDO JOAM S 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SALAZAR BECERRA FERN1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
****************************************************************************************
49 Riders from file: StarterHistory Table
****************************************************************************************
This is what I have in the DB if one were unfortunate enough to have bet $2.00 to WIN on every Ricardo Barrios mount:
Code:
query start: 6/14/2019 10:31:19 AM
query end: 6/14/2019 10:31:20 AM
elapsed time: 1 seconds
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide
SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK='MNR'
AND RIDER='BARRIOS RICARDO'
AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2019#
AND [DATE] <= #06-13-2019#
ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 69.40 118.00 65.20
Bet -156.00 -156.00 -156.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -86.60 -38.00 -90.80
Wins 6 18 16
Plays 78 78 78
PCT .0769 .2308 .2051
ROI 0.4449 0.7564 0.4179
Avg Mut 11.57 6.56 4.07
Fyi, the stats in the show column are a bit off because of small field sizes (the algorithm that generates the stats incorrectly assumes that show wagering was offered on every race.)
It might be easy to look at the above table - and decide the next time you look at MNR pps you're going to draw a big X through every one of the horses he's on because he's a 7% rider...
And who's to say you'd be wrong?
But if I look at his trend line in the DB I see this:
Code:
By: Calendar Timeline Analysis (Each Row 7 Days)
>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Mounts Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.0000 7.0000 3.80 30.00 1.1267 3 15 .2000 2.6000
7.0000 14.0000 -1.20 26.00 0.9538 2 13 .1538 2.0000
14.0000 21.0000 -22.00 22.00 0.0000 0 11 .0000 0.0000
21.0000 28.0000 -16.00 16.00 0.0000 0 8 .0000 0.0000
28.0000 35.0000 -9.20 20.00 0.5400 1 10 .1000 1.3000
35.0000 42.0000 -28.00 28.00 0.0000 0 14 .0000 0.0000
42.0000 49.0000 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000 0.0000
49.0000 56.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
56.0000 63.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5 for 28 or 0.1786 over the past 2 weeks.
More often than not stats like that are telling you that a rider (or a trainer) has been on a hot streak but will (shortly) regress to his own mean.
But every once in a while it turns out stats like that really are telling you that a rider (or a trainer) is undergoing a break out.
Imo, stuff like that is a part of why we play this game.
In any event (because I looked at the trend line) the guy will be on my watch list for the next several MNR cards.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 06-14-2019 at 02:12 PM.
Reason: I have this crazy habit of hitting the submit button too soon.
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06-14-2019, 10:27 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Imo, the stats often have a way of speaking for themselves.
In any event (because I looked at the trend line) the guy will be on my watch list for the next several MNR cards.
-jp
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Tx for the info, sir. But I did not opine on air about the guy's proficiency. I merely stated that his seat and motion on a horse are not stylish. And this only AFTER praising him as an aggressive jock who rides hard the entire trip, does not spare the whip, and gives his clients an all-out effort every time.
And if that's not more platitudes than Ricardo Barios has EVER received from ANY talking head, I will donate this year's entire salary to PETA. In truth, he should plant a wet one on me.
Sadly, though, lots of race-trackers with a dog in the fight watch televised commentary with an attitude best described by that classic line from Simon and Garfunkel's The Boxer : "All lies and jests until a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
And while many WANT to hear edgy and truthful commentary, they also want it BOTH ways by killing the messenger.
As far as Barios embarking on a hot streak, I would proceed with caution, Jeff. Two of his three wins that night were for a somewhat obscure trainer of decent skills, but limited resources. And with most of Mountaineer's live barns faithfully committed to deeply entrenched agents and riders, a breakout card for a far-from-connected jock like Barios almost NEVER opens up new business of note. In fact, the system is more likely to close ranks against him.
Barios' agent, Lori Dinoto, a steward at Mahoning from Oct thru Apr, is a friend of mine and has several times lamented to me just how impossible it is to pry live mounts away from the established hustlers. Don't get me wrong, I trained Lori as an official and am extremely proud of her fast ascension in Ohio, but she is hardly equipped in her first foray as an agent to compete with the likes of Billy Johnson, John Costanzo, and Jeff Perrin.
Last edited by mountainman; 06-14-2019 at 10:29 PM.
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06-14-2019, 10:48 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
You need thick skin to you do my job correctly. And most whining is simply a sign that you're doing it right. But sometimes your only recourse is to laugh and shake your head.
Evidently somebody in the Ricardo Barios camp wants pistols at 10-paces after my characterization of the then 3 for 63 rider's breakout night (Tuesday) as the product not only of hard, aggressive sending, but also the good fortune of having the turf events belatedly switched to dirt.
And they considered it EXTREMELY unfair for me to describe him as a very hard tryer who gives clients their money's worth every time-but will never be mistaken for stylish on a thoroughbred horse.
So ya wana be an analyst on tv??? Welcome to my world. It looks ohhhhhhh so easy until you step into the crucible and realize the cost not only of candor, but of simply doing the job.
I'm paid for objective analysis. Not to issue platitudes or cultivate friends. And I'm a big boy who made my peace with that long ago.
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Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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06-14-2019, 10:53 PM
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#53
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?
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Mountaineer is a "cult" track....Mark's banter is a perfect fit, they love him there.
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06-14-2019, 11:19 PM
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#54
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Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
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Keep up the good work Mark and i do enjoy your insights, Although some nights i wonder where my insights are.
Long time Mountineer fan.
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06-14-2019, 11:58 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?
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Gus, I've been blessed in that regard. Management has always valued my services and understood what I do. And I hope at this stage I've amassed some cred and that my rep, perhaps, precedes me.
I really can't speak for other analysts, because I've never found them to be very "collegial" and have interacted with few of my peers. I don't think many engage in my form of brinkmanship, but individual forms of candor does, of course, characterize the commentary of some elite analysts, such as Serling, or Brad Thomas.
But you CAN bet they get bitched about. It just goes with the territory.
Much respect, my good friend.
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06-15-2019, 11:17 AM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Without putting yourself out on a limb, Mark...could you imagine a circumstance under which the track handicapper might be "coerced" by the higher-ups to tone down the "objective analysis"...and to toe the company line, so to speak?
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Upon further reflection...I do recall an incident that involved my calling a "super trainer" out for incurring a bad test. The guy actually hired a lawyer who called Rosemary and demanded I apologize on the air. She did contemplate having me render said apology ( which I would have done to preserve my job), but finally said "@#%# 'em. Let them sue!!"
And I was once told to quit saying "The circus is in town" when we carded WV bred races. But that was long ago and before the program made reasonable strides.
I was also dressed down once for employing the code word "Iditarod" to characterize exceptionally bad fields.
And I have, of course, had numerous jocks complain about my commentary. One in particular stands out for having demanded "satisfaction." (A sobering prospect, indeed, since I am sadly untutored in the art of fencing.) But management has NEVER sided with a single jock or trainer who beefed about me.
And another thing I have never, ever, been rebuked for is frankly stating, when appropriate, that I would NOT bet the race at hand with real money. Management well understands the long range value of on-air credibility.
Last edited by mountainman; 06-15-2019 at 11:26 AM.
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06-15-2019, 03:15 PM
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#57
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Mountaineer is a "cult" track....Mark's banter is a perfect fit, they love him there.
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Greatly enjoy Mark's banter. I'm guilty of tuning in, listening to Mark break down a race, informed betting along with the narrative, and then hanging around to wager more races than I had planned.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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06-15-2019, 10:08 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Upon further reflection...I do recall an incident that involved my calling a "super trainer" out for incurring a bad test. The guy actually hired a lawyer who called Rosemary and demanded I apologize on the air. She did contemplate having me render said apology ( which I would have done to preserve my job), but finally said "@#%# 'em. Let them sue!!"
And I was once told to quit saying "The circus is in town" when we carded WV bred races. But that was long ago and before the program made reasonable strides.
I was also dressed down once for employing the code word "Iditarod" to characterize exceptionally bad fields.
And I have, of course, had numerous jocks complain about my commentary. One in particular stands out for having demanded "satisfaction." (A sobering prospect, indeed, since I am sadly untutored in the art of fencing.) But management has NEVER sided with a single jock or trainer who beefed about me.
And another thing I have never, ever, been rebuked for is frankly stating, when appropriate, that I would NOT bet the race at hand with real money. Management well understands the long range value of on-air credibility.
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I much appreciate the breadth of your reply, Mark...and I am glad that the Mountaineer management appreciates the value of your candor as a track handicapper. In the various TVG threads that invariably appear here...it always amazes me when the opinion is voiced that a handicapping host should never express dissatisfaction with the betting value being offered by a particular race...for fear that this would somehow undermine the real job that the host is paid to do. IMO...whatever short-term gain a betting institution may attain from having its host recommend wagers for every single race PALES when compared to the long-term harm that such an irresponsible act inevitably brings forth. The game is hard enough even without the irresponsible touting that we see from some of our racing institutions.
Thanks again for taking the time to reply at such length...and please be assured that my respect for you outweighs whatever respect you might have for me.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 06-15-2019 at 10:14 PM.
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06-17-2019, 11:47 AM
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#59
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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As part of package deal, Century Casinos announced plans to acquire Mountaineer from Eldorado this morning. I'd guess it doesn't mean too much for the racing product, but not entirely sure.
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06-17-2019, 11:51 AM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
As part of package deal, Century Casinos announced plans to acquire Mountaineer from Eldorado this morning. I'd guess it doesn't mean too much for the racing product, but not entirely sure.
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Deal kicks in next year. Much uncertainty in the ranks here. Reading each player's intent not so easy. Looks complicated beyond my meager grasp of such affairs.
Last edited by mountainman; 06-17-2019 at 11:55 AM.
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