Handicapping Method

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Raybo,

No, I do it way different.

I start with "paper and pencil." The order matters, right?

Sure does, but of course, that order varies depending on who is doing it, and what room their located in.

[HUSKER55]

you guys do know how Captain Hook died? right?

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by Tom

What about good old eye-ball capping?
You look at the PPs and never use a pencil or a computer?
Most people I see at the track, when I go, is this group.
Form in one hand, beer in the other.

That's about what I had in mind when I just now voted for Other.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

What about good old eye-ball capping?
You look at the PPs and never use a pencil or a computer?
Most people I see at the track, when I go, is this group.

Form in one hand, beer in the other.

i don't mind that when playing w/ friends or for recreation.

voted other ?

i watch a lot of races / replays
a large amount of my handicapping is just watching the sport. Already bet on or against, just waiting for the horse to run back.

consider the chart and try to gain insight about the races watched

factor the parimutuel system

probability is a major factor. the fundamental "truth"?

trainer intent - including trainer aptitude/ability/angles

knowing the jockeys like we know our favorite quarterbacks or ballplayers individual abilities

race types (looking for certain factors in the most fruitful race conditions)

track configuration/bias - this should be tied in with knowing the horse

race dynamics and pace

use the form as a shortcut as well, and not every horse need be so thoroughly handicapped. Started out handicapping by reading the form.

beer

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

i don't mind that when playing w/ friends or for recreation.

voted other ?

i watch a lot of races / replays
a large amount of my handicapping is just watching the sport. Already bet on or against, just waiting for the horse to run back.

consider the chart and try to gain insight about the races watched

factor the parimutuel system

probability is a major factor. the fundamental "truth"?

trainer intent - including trainer aptitude/ability/angles

knowing the jockeys like we know our favorite quarterbacks or ballplayers individual abilities

race types (looking for certain factors in the most fruitful race conditions)

track configuration/bias - this should be tied in with knowing the horse

race dynamics and pace

use the form as a shortcut as well, and not every horse need be so thoroughly handicapped. Started out handicapping by reading the form.

beer

That's a lot of data to keep track of on paper, using only a pencil, don't you think?

[Kevroc]

All of this makes me think back to the days when I would go to the OTB during my lunch break, buy a program and dope out a quick race or two.

After I was done with the one or two races I had capped, I'd skip ahead to the races that would be going off while I was gone and I'd mark up the program with nonsensical symbols and one liners... most of them NSFW and derogatory towards the jocks (standard NY stuff)

and then on my way out I'd give my program to one of the regular degens that hang around the joint.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I guess I will have to bump into some of you guys at Toga or Arlington or etc to see what you are doing to know how to proceed with computer aided capping.One thing that won't change,that is the most effective method of betting races is the simple old school,kindergarten teacher application of grading races.Every race morning,sit down and look at every race and grade it based on your opinion.If you have a horse you isolate,grade it.All grades coincide with odds and payoff ranges on a 1-2-3-4-5 scale.Impose betting limits on grades and ranges.This eliminates all confusion or adrenalin once the action happens.If I have a key horse rated A and the exacta an A3 and I bet less than 3% of my bank I know I am being both a dumbass and a coward.

[Dave Schwartz]

One thing that won't change,that is the most effective method of betting races is the simple old school,kindergarten teacher application of grading races.Every race morning,sit down and look at every race and grade it based on your opinion.If you have a horse you isolate,grade it.

Cincy,

With all due respect, I would say that this is the absolute worst way to decide whether or not one should play a particular race or horse.

Value is not something that can be determined before knowing the final odds.

I realize that you will feel differently, and I am not saying that you cannot possibly succeed doing it this way. I am saying that anyone looking for advice on how to play should absolutely NOT take this approach.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you never like a horse at all then I guess you can proceed that way.No value for me equals no bet.If there is a horse in a race that you cannot turn your head away from and in fact love it to death you have to act if the odds are there.And I already know you have that horse and my opinion handicapped as being 8/5 or less.I read your blog.Those are the horses you fall onto.Not me.if you start taking the value suggestions into the realm of betting races and horses you might grade at a C level or worse because over the course of betting 2-5 thousand races a year the percentages will produce a profit,you are going to make a lot of people losers immediately that can't be available for those percentages to kick in.My average win mutuel last year was 4-1 at a 30% clip so I don't see how what I am doing is wrong at all.All due respect.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Cincy,

With all due respect, I would say that this is the absolute worst way to decide whether or not one should play a particular race or horse.

Value is not something that can be determined before knowing the final odds.

I realize that you will feel differently, and I am not saying that you cannot possibly succeed doing it this way. I am saying that anyone looking for advice on how to play should absolutely NOT take this approach.


Just my opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

If you never like a horse at all then I guess you can proceed that way.No value for me equals no bet.If there is a horse in a race that you cannot turn your head away from and in fact love it to death you have to act if the odds are there.And I already know you have that horse and my opinion handicapped as being 8/5 or less.I read your blog.Those are the horses you fall onto.Not me.if you start taking the value suggestions into the realm of betting races and horses you might grade at a C level or worse because over the course of betting 2-5 thousand races a year the percentages will produce a profit,you are going to make a lot of people losers immediately that can't be available for those percentages to kick in.My average win mutuel last year was 4-1 at a 30% clip so I don't see how what I am doing is wrong at all.All due respect.

30% wins at 4-1 average odds?

How many total bets?

I am in need of a personal handicapper...and I just may make you an offer you can't refuse.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have no intention of turning this in to a flame thread.

I congratulate you that you are having such splendid results.

My point was that you seemed to be advising people to do it this way and I firmly believe that this is the longer, less effective way of doing things.

But I am curious... how many horses are you typically in love with at the beginning of the day?

Of those horses, how many do you usually wager on?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I have no intention of turning this in to a flame thread.

I congratulate you that you are having such splendid results.

My point was that you seemed to be advising people to do it this way and I firmly believe that this is the longer, less effective way of doing things.

But I am curious... how many horses are you typically in love with at the beginning of the day?

Of those horses, how many do you usually wager on?

I have no intentions on turning this into a flame thread either.

I wouldn't exactly call 30% splendid either.It's only that because I refuse to bet on anything less than 2-1 and the 2-1 shots I do bet are even money on my line.

Usually there are 2 horses a card I absolutely love.4 of the last 8 won and I didn't bet 2 of them because of odds.The winners ranged from 2-1 to 9/2.

Beyond those type of horses, races I grade B or B/C,meaning I feel like I know the race and there aren't an endless array of possibles for the other spots,I hit at a decent enough frequency in the middle odds ranges to secure a positive ROI.

I see value in contentious races and races where there are more than 6 win possibilities,but I won't take low odds in them and and they are usually in the C grade range.Contentious or calamity.

What I think I am hearing from you is that the worse the grade,the more you are fired up to get into these races.And on the other hand are assuming I am sitting there chalkaholic betting the hell out of favorites.I think you are presuming too much of me and slotting me into an idea of a bettor.And I am presuming that you are targeting the anything can happen races and that's where value lies.When I sit down on a Saturday morning and do my personalized report card I know that if I start betting too many races on the lower half of the grading spectrum I'm,for lack of a better word,****ing up unless I'm getting outstanding odds.And likewise I know I'm doing the same if I ever even indulge horses less than 2-1.In every available bet those horses have returned next to nothing since 2001 for me.I don't bother.

As far as this thread Dave myself and other have had open ended curiosities about things beyond pen and paper capping and all I have seen from you are denouncements and a few laughs.It irritates me.I like to be in the know.When the advertizers of things I respect and plan on buying think that I am a joke it doesn't sit well bro!

[windoor]

I have gone on record as never looking at the odds.

For 2012: From 1/1/12 to 2/1/12: Cut and paste from Excel spread sheet on record keeping.

350 27.14% 4.09 95

Number of plays, win % ,average odd, and number of wins.

I am used to a higher average odd than that, but am playing quite a few more races than last year.

Regards,

Windoor.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

30% wins at 4-1 average odds?

How many total bets?

I am in need of a personal handicapper...and I just may make you an offer you can't refuse.

If I take out a losing spot play or two (so far) I think I can get close to 30%.

Will it continue: I have no idea.

Still, I will entertain some offers

Regards,

Windoor

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

30% wins at 4-1 average odds?

How many total bets?

I am in need of a personal handicapper...and I just may make you an offer you can't refuse.

Not hard to get that mutuel if you refuse odds.When I'm beyond the laughable $20 bettor to you all and get at least to the $100 bet range I might come out of my shell.Ihave averaged 28% since 2001 with obvious fluctuations.You'll get bored with me though.I believe in the passing attack.I'd love to bet more cards but my prep takes too damn long.I'd love to be tooting the hell out of my own horn right now but I havetaken a serious cliff dive in the exotics.Which was my expected bread and butter for years.I remember being layed off in 2005 for 4 months and went on such an exotic streak I thought I was king of the motherluvin universe!!

By the way Thask,I'll see you in June-July at Arlington.Al and I were talking about it earlier.