Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-18-2023, 09:57 PM   #31
JustRalph
Just another Facist
 
JustRalph's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 51,961
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk View Post
I find very few plays these days. It is often not worth spending the time at the computer to find out.
Thatís the bottom line.
JustRalph is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2023, 11:04 PM   #32
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
They are very good but there big edge is rebates. You take rebates out of the picture and bring the takeout to where it should be and good horse players can compete. You do not need to exclude caw. You need to make it a level playing field for everyone. Otherwise there will be nobody left to play the game. It is grade school logic but far too complex for the decision makers in this game.
I'd argue their big edge is betting last, even bigger than rebates. They limit WPS action on NYRA even with the same rebates. Doesn't that prove it?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2023, 11:20 PM   #33
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
Because he proved it by betting $2.00 on a race that failed to close and handed the ticket to someone in track management.


-jp
.
And didn't they try to ban him for it or something silly like that?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-18-2023, 11:49 PM   #34
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,699
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I don't think anyone here would care how much handle came from CAW except for two things:
  1. They play at a much better price than we do
  2. They get to bet last except in a scant few pools which is a huge edge in parimutuel games
3. They have better tote models than we do because we don't have any.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 12:16 AM   #35
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,310
You're lucky if one or two models is consistently generating watch list leads worth following.

Then after you've done all that work in the leads, you are lucky if you have one mispriced opportunity in a day.

Watch list models aside, you go through the fundamental models.., and do the work in all the acceptable races of a day. /


Concentration of power in every aspect of the game. Including the players.

I could be accused of paranoia.
Contend that my apprehension simply extends beyond my comprehension...

Perhaps some of this concentrated power is capitalized on when possible?

You can see it relatively openly in the supertrainers and superowners.
First in performance of the racehorses. Then an apprehension of the concentration of the multiple elite jockeys that ride for them.

We also have the super churning syndicates that often use the CAW/CRW technology. Do they value information? Do they leave all the potential influence to chance? In the name of rules/morality?/ethics??

'tis Better to retire in silence than to binge-post possibilities that perhaps there is more in it than the public thinks.

I've never had the pleasure of participating in the stock market. In spite of it's relatively high class nature, I would guess that casual investors, entertainment players, and gamblers do not fare well at all there either.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 12:50 AM   #36
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
3. They have better tote models than we do because we don't have any.
How would they do us any good unless we could bet last?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 01:06 AM   #37
crestridge
Paladin & Fudge
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 332
Dave

Hi Dave Can you expand on the subject, "of tote models"? I don't know what you mean...
crestridge is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 01:19 AM   #38
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,699
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
How would they do us any good unless we could bet last?
The challenge isn't that they bet last. They bet when we bet - when the horses are in the gate.

They SEE (basically) the same odds we do. (Yes, they can hit a tote server and sometimes get an extra refresh but that really doesn't do much.

The biggest edge they have is having BETTER KNOWLEDGE of what the final odds are LIKELY to be.

I've been able to predict with a good degree of success who they will bet using some tools I built about 2 years ago.

The best I can do with those horses is to lose about 4.5% on each wagered dollar. (You probably know that the whales' target is to lose about 3.5% flat. If my predictions were better then I could lose 3.5%, too.)

However, there is hope.

If you know who they are likely to bet, then you know those horses are destined to be underlays. Pretty good bets in the sense that they lose less and run like crazy, but still they lose.

Still, knowing that has value.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 01:36 AM   #39
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,763
I don't question what you said Dave, but I don't think most of us started handicapping because we wanted to be able to guess who the smarter bettors might bet at the last minute.

No one is saying it's impossible to reverse engineer what the CAW bettors are doing...but is that a game most of us can or even want to play? I don't. I don't appear to be alone.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 01:38 AM   #40
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I'd argue their big edge is betting last, even bigger than rebates. They limit WPS action on NYRA even with the same rebates. Doesn't that prove it?
I believe it is win pool only and I believe they must bet by 2 mins to post. My guess is that they opted out of the win pool because they feel it is better to focus on the other pools without advertising who they are betting which might hurt their edge in other pools.we disagree on this subject but it doesnít matter regarding the longevity of horse racing. Their will always be good and bad players. It makes no sense for the best player to get huge rebates and the bad players to not get any. Just makes the game far too expensive for any rational layman to stick around in this game. One final note there are people beating this game with good rebates that are not caw. I challenge any caw to beat todays game with no rebates and the ability to bet last.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 01:58 AM   #41
crestridge
Paladin & Fudge
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 332
Dave How does that (knowing how they bet, have value) work for the "layman"?
crestridge is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 02:01 AM   #42
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I challenge any caw to beat todays game with no rebates and the ability to bet last.
Come on, now you are overdoing it. Of course the CAW groups can beat today's game without the rebates...they would just have to bet less so their wagers don't depress the odds as much. If a CAW group can operate on a 4.5% deficit while making mammoth wagers, they can beat the game while making smaller bets...it just wouldn't be worth their while, financially speaking. The generous rebates that they get are a way to offset the negative effect that their huge wagers have on the odds.
__________________
"When exposing a crime is treated as committing a crime, you are being ruled by criminals."
-- Edward Snowden
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 02:48 AM   #43
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Come on, now you are overdoing it. Of course the CAW groups can beat today's game without the rebates...they would just have to bet less so their wagers don't depress the odds as much. If a CAW group can operate on a 4.5% deficit while making mammoth wagers, they can beat the game while making smaller bets...it just wouldn't be worth their while, financially speaking. The generous rebates that they get are a way to offset the negative effect that their huge wagers have on the odds.
Is there a way to close this Pandoras box of a mess?
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 03:24 AM   #44
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Is there a way to close this Pandoras box of a mess?
English please?
__________________
"When exposing a crime is treated as committing a crime, you are being ruled by criminals."
-- Edward Snowden
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-19-2023, 03:37 AM   #45
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
English please?
If the rebates are taken away, handle will suffer and purses will drop....It's a catch-22 situation.

Rebates should never have been implemented in the first place, thus Pandora's Box.

If rebates continue the game will die more rapidly...We're in a mess and I'm just about done with live betting, it's a waste of my time.

I'd rather play tourneys and bet sports, it's much more profitable..
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you primarily find bettable horses?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:26 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.