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Old 08-18-2023, 05:49 PM   #16
thaskalos
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And...

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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I don't think anyone here would care how much handle came from CAW except for two things:
  1. They play at a much better price than we do
  2. They get to bet last except in a scant few pools which is a huge edge in parimutuel games
3. They might also be able to place their wagers just a tad after the starting gate opens. (Just a thought )
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Old 08-18-2023, 05:50 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
3. They might also be able to place their wagers just a tad after the starting gate opens. (Just a thought )
Certainly possible, but I'm sticking with things I know as fact.

This sport is in a state right now that even when people win, it is like 50/50 they are happy after the race.
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Old 08-18-2023, 05:55 PM   #18
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I love the sport. I enjoy watching the best run against the best. If I find a bet that's great, but if not, I'll still be interested in a great race. We are at the point where a handful of trainers have almost all the best horses, they avoid running against each other and try to keep their own horses apart. So we are getting way too many small or uncompetitive Stakes fields. That makes many of them unbettable too. We aren't going to attract many new fans of the sport that way.

The CAWs don't bother me beyond them having access to pool information I don't have. If I had the technological and statistical skills to create an advanced model and get my bets off later, I'd be a CAW getting bigger rebates. Otherwise, they are just another very skilled player I am competing with. I have to find holes in their game. Keep in mind, we are also competing against insiders that have access to information on the condition and treatment of their horses that we don't have.
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Old 08-18-2023, 06:07 PM   #19
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I love the sport. I enjoy watching the best run against the best. If I find a bet that's great, but if not, I'll still be interested in a great race. We are at the point where a handful of trainers have almost all the best horses, they avoid running against each other and try to keep their own horses apart. So we are getting way too many small or uncompetitive Stakes fields. That makes many of them unbettable too. We aren't going to attract many new fans of the sport that way.
I agree with everything you said. If we look at Triple Crown and Breeders Cup. Races,we'll see that these great trainers Wim % drops quite a bit. Most of them are great at placing their horses where they can win, but not great when the races are really competitive.Unfortunately,we don't have many days like that anymore.
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Old 08-18-2023, 06:27 PM   #20
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I find very few plays these days. It is often not worth spending the time at the computer to find out.
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Old 08-18-2023, 07:38 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I love the sport. I enjoy watching the best run against the best. If I find a bet that's great, but if not, I'll still be interested in a great race. We are at the point where a handful of trainers have almost all the best horses, they avoid running against each other and try to keep their own horses apart. So we are getting way too many small or uncompetitive Stakes fields. That makes many of them unbettable too. We aren't going to attract many new fans of the sport that way.

The CAWs don't bother me beyond them having access to pool information I don't have. If I had the technological and statistical skills to create an advanced model and get my bets off later, I'd be a CAW getting bigger rebates. Otherwise, they are just another very skilled player I am competing with. I have to find holes in their game. Keep in mind, we are also competing against insiders that have access to information on the condition and treatment of their horses that we don't have.
There AREN'T any "holes in their game". They have every advantage and they're better than us too. Sure they miss on some races but in the big picture they grind the profit out of the game. That's why their handle is going up and everyday bettors' handle is plummeting. Eventually it will come to a head and they're cannibalize each other, but by then none of us will be wagering.

Sure, you can say "I'll just bet on big races and big days when the handle from casual players is greatest" but that's not what the game was like for most serious players who played several days a week and kept the day-to-day track business afloat.
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Old 08-18-2023, 07:47 PM   #22
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I just laugh. It is absolutely comical to me that the powers that be continue on with this nonsense. They have lost like 70 percent of the retail handle in 20 years.Every couple of months more evidence comes out that they have been asleep at the wheel and we get little bandaids. Seems to me that a lot of careers in this industry are dependent on the decision makers in this industry doing the right thing, but these decision makers just quadruple down on stupid. The clock is ticking.

As far as past posting t have my suspicions but the ultimate question is who is watching and who has the motivation to protect the public. Obviously for the racing industry they have proven that handle is paramount. So if there is one team that is betting maybe 5 seconds into a race and using that to their advantage, would anyone notice and would anyone in the industry care. The one thing I do agree with is that they need to close and finalize the pools prior to the race going off. It is an absolute no brainer. Give the public the assurance they need that past posting is not happening. That way anytime a horse that breaks clear by 3 and coincidentally drops from 8/5 to 4/5 around the far turn we donít have a number of horse players reaching the conclusion that past posting is going on. My conclusion is that the caw would probably oppose this. Who cares?
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Old 08-18-2023, 07:57 PM   #23
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I think a far bigger problem is that the edges many of us had 20-30 years ago are gone. The ease in watching replays, coupled with a far better educated fanbase has taken away much of the edge trip handicapping offered. Products like Formulator made what used to be three to four hours of work even more efficiently done in under an hour. The availability of pedigree information and workout reports. Craig's figures used to have limited exposure, now they're readily available to everyone.

CAW play is raising the effective takeout a little over 2% in NY. That's more than compensated by rebates. Yes, it's a problem that they are allowed to flood pools in some other places, and the Jackpot bets are a disaster for the regular player, and a boon to computer players, but saying CAW players are driving everyone out of the game is naive. The game got a lot tougher because the fan base is better educated...much better educated.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:02 PM   #24
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When I suggested a couple of years ago that past posting might be taking place...I received condemnation from a couple of the "insiders" who visit here. One official of a now defunct ADW operation even called me "uninformed and paranoid". But when Mike Mahoney said basically the same thing in his book...no one had the balls to accuse him of "ignorance or paranoia".
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:03 PM   #25
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There AREN'T any "holes in their game". They have every advantage and they're better than us too. Sure they miss on some races but in the big picture they grind the profit out of the game. That's why their handle is going up and everyday bettors' handle is plummeting. Eventually it will come to a head and they're cannibalize each other, but by then none of us will be wagering.

Sure, you can say "I'll just bet on big races and big days when the handle from casual players is greatest" but that's not what the game was like for most serious players who played several days a week and kept the day-to-day track business afloat.
They are very good but there big edge is rebates. You take rebates out of the picture and bring the takeout to where it should be and good horse players can compete. You do not need to exclude caw. You need to make it a level playing field for everyone. Otherwise there will be nobody left to play the game. It is grade school logic but far too complex for the decision makers in this game.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:06 PM   #26
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I think a far bigger problem is that the edges many of us had 20-30 years ago are gone. The ease in watching replays, coupled with a far better educated fanbase has taken away much of the edge trip handicapping offered. Products like Formulator made what used to be three to four hours of work even more efficiently done in under an hour. The availability of pedigree information and workout reports. Craig's figures used to have limited exposure, now they're readily available to everyone.

CAW play is raising the effective takeout a little over 2% in NY. That's more than compensated by rebates. Yes, it's a problem that they are allowed to flood pools in some other places, and the Jackpot bets are a disaster for the regular player, and a boon to computer players, but saying CAW players are driving everyone out of the game is naive. The game got a lot tougher because the fan base is better educated...much better educated.
When the recent stats indicate that the "fan base" is wagering about 70% less now than they did 20 years ago, while the CAW players have seen their handle EXPLODE during the exact same time period...can we be blamed for thinking that "the CAW players are driving everybody out of the game"?
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:15 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
When I suggested a couple of years ago that past posting might be taking place...I received condemnation from a couple of the "insiders" who visit here. One official of a now defunct ADW operation even called me "uninformed and paranoid". But when Mike Mahoney said basically the same thing in his book...no one had the balls to accuse him of "ignorance or paranoia".
I'm puzzled as to how past-posting can even work.

Gate opens in a 6F sprint. Are you immediately taking the horse that guns to the lead in the first 50-100 yards? Do you wait till the first call? Do the ADWs even take the wager? I know most of us have tried wagering within seconds of the bell and get shut out.

Doesn't even make sense to me as to how it would even work for a computer aided system to wait for such data and then fire a bet, much less the rampant illegality of which past-posting presents. Would ADWs put their entire business model on the line for CAWs and a few whales, and somehow keep it hidden for well over a decade?
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:46 PM   #28
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I'm puzzled as to how past-posting can even work.

Gate opens in a 6F sprint. Are you immediately taking the horse that guns to the lead in the first 50-100 yards? Do you wait till the first call? Do the ADWs even take the wager? I know most of us have tried wagering within seconds of the bell and get shut out.

Doesn't even make sense to me as to how it would even work for a computer aided system to wait for such data and then fire a bet, much less the rampant illegality of which past-posting presents. Would ADWs put their entire business model on the line for CAWs and a few whales, and somehow keep it hidden for well over a decade?

Very good point. Also if you do some research, some tracks don't seem to have the problems with the late odds drops from the CAW's money.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:55 PM   #29
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I think a far bigger problem is that the edges many of us had 20-30 years ago are gone. The ease in watching replays, coupled with a far better educated fanbase has taken away much of the edge trip handicapping offered. Products like Formulator made what used to be three to four hours of work even more efficiently done in under an hour. The availability of pedigree information and workout reports. Craig's figures used to have limited exposure, now they're readily available to everyone.

CAW play is raising the effective takeout a little over 2% in NY. That's more than compensated by rebates. Yes, it's a problem that they are allowed to flood pools in some other places, and the Jackpot bets are a disaster for the regular player, and a boon to computer players, but saying CAW players are driving everyone out of the game is naive. The game got a lot tougher because the fan base is better educated...much better educated.
How is this rationalization working for the racing industry? Maybe it is time for them to for once in their lives listen to what horse players are telling them. Part of the problem is as the Caw grew from 1 or 2 percent of handle to what may be 35% of handle today they have taken out a huge number of fish. So yes remaining horse players are a lot sharper today as a group than they were 20 years ago, because they effective have weeded out most recreational players.

But that was because of a poor pricing policy that made recreation horse playing far too expensive relative to it's competition. High takeout wasn't an issue in 1970 because frankly people had very few alternative options. But as time went on we had local casinos and lotteries and poker took off and suddenly racing had to compete. Somebody in this industry came up with the brainstorm that to complete we will use rebates. They ignored what those rebates would do to other horseplayers (I have given examples at least 50 times over the years). Little did I know as I was posting over the years that exactly what I said would happen, was happening right before your (not you but the powers that be) very eyes. This was so obvious and so predictable yet they refuse to take rebates out of the equation. You do realize that your entire industry is on borrowed time. Sadly it does not have to be that way.

As far as your 2% figure, not exactly sure what that means. Ocrunk posted months ago that non teams were losing 27-28% at Nyra over 10 years in just about every exotic pool. Why does this industry fail to realize that losing 27 cents on the dollar on every bet you make is unacceptable. They don't have to convince me how great this game is. I love this game. But you cannot keep people in this game when they are losing 27 cents on every dollar they bet. Not when they have so many, so much more affordable alternatives. I live in Vegas so I go to the strip ever so often and I sit there astounded at how many people are playing slots at any moment in time. Completely brainless game in which you are guaranteed to lose long term. I walk buy a $50 or $100 minimum blackjack table and people are playing. I am not even sure if they are getting 3/2 on blackjack. I know the lower stake pays 6/5 on blackjack. Every poker room I pass by is packed. Venetian etc. I say to myself why does the racing industry not want to go after these customers. Why are they stuck on stupid? It is completely mind boggling to me.
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Old 08-18-2023, 09:13 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
When I suggested a couple of years ago that past posting might be taking place...I received condemnation from a couple of the "insiders" who visit here. One official of a now defunct ADW operation even called me "uninformed and paranoid". But when Mike Mahoney said basically the same thing in his book...no one had the balls to accuse him of "ignorance or paranoia".
Because he proved it by betting $2.00 on a race that failed to close and handed the ticket to someone in track management.


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