 |
|
01-25-2022, 01:29 AM
|
#16
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE EXPECTED WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE ACTUAL WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
01-25-2022, 01:47 AM
|
#17
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
CORRECTION
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE ACTUAL WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE EXPECTED WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG
|
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
01-25-2022, 05:04 AM
|
#18
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,175
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
THE EXPECTED WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE ACTUAL WINNERS.
|
I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be critical or mean
but your words lack clarity
I have absolutely no idea what that means
.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 01-25-2022 at 05:05 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
01-25-2022, 09:57 AM
|
#19
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
I'm sorry, I'm not trying to be critical or mean
but your words lack clarity
I have absolutely no idea what that means
.
|
requesting a clarification is never critical
First see the correction I made. the correction reads
"A LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
THE ACTUAL WIN BET WINNERS FAR EXCEED THE EXPECTED WINNERS.
IT SHOULD LAST SO LONG"
the 2nd column sums the actual number of winners. 7 wins for both tables
the 6th column is headed "% WIN POOL PLAYED"
that represents the sum of the expected win probability for all the selected horses.
in the 1st table it all sums to 5.438, the 2nd table 5.147. they are the expected number of winners
the actual win bet winners 7 and 7exceed the expected number of winners 5.438 and 5.147
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
01-26-2022, 02:07 PM
|
#20
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
RESULTS FOR 88 WIN BETS,APPROACHING NORMALCY AFTER 88 RACES
ACTUAL WIN/EXPECTED WIN = 105%
RETURNED DOLLARS/ BET DOLLARS = 93%
NORMALIZED RETURN (WHERE TOTAL BET ON EACH RACE SUMS TO 100%)=94%
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
01-31-2022, 01:37 AM
|
#21
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
bottom line steady win bet returns.
my win bet sizes returned $0.96 on the dollar
a flat bet on the same horses returned but $0.77 on the dollar
most plays are on the top three public picks
47 profitable win bet in 79 races, that's a win race of 53
I may be able to improve the win bet returns by deleted the 3rd choice. so far, they are not producing.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
01-31-2022, 02:13 PM
|
#22
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
a winning play.. more often than not!!
my $1 normalized exacta returned $1.30 for a $ $1 bet
my normalized win bet returned $1.70 for a $1 bet
I played 73% of the win pool. A min $1 return was only $1.38
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 01-31-2022 at 02:27 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
01-31-2022, 10:03 PM
|
#23
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
here are the results for the complete card!!
my $1 normalized exacta returned $0.76 for a $ $1 bet
my normalized win bet sizes returned $0.98 for a $1 bet at a win rate of 50%
while a flat bet on all 23 horses I played returned $0.37 on the $1.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
08-30-2023, 12:29 AM
|
#24
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
exacta play. current results
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-02-2023, 12:42 AM
|
#25
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
exacta results. 200 races
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-07-2023, 07:29 PM
|
#26
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
299 OUT OF SAMPLE RACE STUDY. LOOKING GOOD LOUIS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-09-2023, 12:43 PM
|
#27
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
UNSEGMENTED PLAY CHART. 343 RACES $1 RETURN OF $1.02.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-09-2023, 06:04 PM
|
#28
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
One dimension is missing but will be incorporated, that is, a/e. Actual exacta payout / expected payout, where the expected payout is calculated using the win pool odds.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-09-2023, 11:43 PM
|
#29
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
386 SEGMENTED RACES INDICATING AREAS OF PROFTIT OR LOSS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
09-12-2023, 12:46 AM
|
#30
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
439 races.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
