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Old 09-01-2023, 08:02 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by dnlgfnk View Post
In 2021, I emphasized 5 exactas at a three figure payout each, producing an end of year 30% ROI since my preference was for a fair amount of plays at smallish investment per play, with enjoyment being a heavily weighted criteria.

I suffered a moderate heart attack in the midst of that year, and have been doing a lot of refinement and mental play, working my way back, with a poor man's Monte Carlo simulation at the forefront. "If this favorite loses the race 65% of the time, what are the intra-race dynamics that will contribute to his losing"? Proceeding down the line by odds rank and potential race development, and attempting to score those factors for a confidence rating. If I can downgrade the favorite to half his public pct., per that Benter article I mentioned to someone above, I recalibrate the percentages.

If envisioning a horizontal play, I would project my own line well in advance to have a working grasp before scratches, but I lazily have been considering exactas from an Ernie Dahlmann, least-risk-for-exotic reward standpoint.

I didn't make note of the odds while loading, but in the recent 7th at Colonial it seems there was a significant late play to the #6, based upon the will pay DD payoffs. I had already downgraded him to a 7% chance, as a very likely speed duel candidate including the #'s 4 and/or 7.

IMO, there is opportunity everyday.
I wish you all the best going forward...both financially and health-wise.
"When exposing a crime is treated as committing a crime, you are being ruled by criminals."
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Old 09-01-2023, 10:01 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I wish you all the best going forward...both financially and health-wise.
Thanks, thaskalos.

Genetic, I think. Walked 2-5 miles about 5 days a week since I was 35. Probably saved my life. Took it easy mid '21 but back up to 3 miles a day, 6 challenging hills. Text my horseplayer friend occasionally that I worked 3.3 mi., 1:00:00, gate handily, weather clear. Track fast.

Best wishes to you, also.
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
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