Rayya's Times, the magical rail exagerated?

[SkunkApe]

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

Mendelssohn might not pass quarantine after all the stuff LoneF has put on (or in) him.

Anything short of 1:59 flat will be a massive disappointment.

[SkunkApe]

...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

...

Yep not much ball room in this discourse!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

Not to scare you guys, but a horrifying but somewhat possible scenario occured to me:

What if Mendelssohn doesn’t actually start, and Justify wins?

God help us all. We’ll never hear the end of it.

And what if Mendy does start and is nowhere at the wire?
Can you promise we will hear the end of it?

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

...

Ok that was good gotta give you credit for that one lol

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Ok that was good gotta give you credit for that one lol

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

This is the video guy who suggested to "toss" Quip off the Arkansas Derby ticket and had Strike Power and Catholic boy as his exacta in the FL Derby.

I didn't see any of the other videos, but decided based on those 2 that his opinion isn't really any BETTER than anyone else here, so i probably won't bother.

I don't know if he is a win candidate but I do look forward to seeing Mendy when he arrives here.

Papillon, that was an interesting post.

After seeing Raaya's works out in S.A. with Abel Talisman, she appears to be a pretty good and fast DIRT horse. I expect the same is true of Mendelssohn.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.

Not everyone has access to Ragozin and Thorograph. I read Thorograph's board, but do not post there, because I am not a customer and they are pretty tight lipped about the figs.

It just seems to me that while I accept the rail was the place to be and know that in such cases making up ground is almost impossible, either Mendelssohn was considerably faster than the older males, or the track slowed considerably inbetween, and that is a very powerful track. It can make you fast, it can make you slow, all attributed to the same cause.

One of set of times has to be the most accurate for that track on that day. If it's the derby's, then the three year olds would have crushed the older males, and before I'm castigated, Mendelsohn and Rayya would have seized the yellow brick rail long before Thunder Snow and been uncatchable. If it's the WC's, then the track lost 2 seconds in a matter of hours and Mendelssohn is one of the slowest three year olds.

I am frequently unclear, so I will try to tighten my point about Rayya's times. Their significance for me is to establish the "true speed" of the track in relation to itself. She ran back to her time. That suggests to me that her splits in the derby, and every other horse in the derby were "true," and they would have crushed the older males, and Mendelsohn cruzed until 8-9f when he began to hit his lactic acid threshold. He would have beaten West Cost by over 20 lengths. I'm not suggesting his times/outcomes on another track, but an evaluation of his raw talent. He woukd have been Beholder in her first Pacific Classic.

I have no idea how he will do in the derby, the weather may kill his chances before he even gets out of the gate.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.

Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).

None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.

So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.

The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.

He was beaten 36 lengths.

Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.


The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.

I realize you wrote this before Rayya's work with Abel Tasman. That work suggests she's the real deal.

FWIW Rayya has a 100% pure dirt pedigree, Tiznow/Corronado's Quest nick. Tiz Wonderful only raced 3 times so we have no idea his potential. She even has Hennessy through her sire's dam. I'm actually more impressed with her having verification she did carry 126 once going 9 3/16. Her 3/4 of second gain could simply have been due to her weight break, not the track, meaning he really did run 1:55, not an adjusted 1:56.

It's a dangerous game playing, whom did who beat? Often comes back to bite you on the butt. Horses considered good today, may look different in hindsight and vice versa.

Goldophin horses only look good in Dubai, Dubai has a magical effect on them...beating them there is a testament in and of itself.

Aspidistra was a claimer. What gets passed on does not always manifest. People thought the duaghter of Henny Hughs was destined to be a sprinter too.

I watched Mr. Vosburg. The rail was the place to be, but using records falling left and right is meaningless. The dirt has not been in place for long, the season is brief, and most of the horses are not dirt pedigree horses, and the track could certainly have been faster, but it was not producing SA records on steriods faster. It was running more like a normal dirt track.

Reride ran in line with his past performances, he did not run significantly faster than he had before.

I'm not trying to sell you Mendelssohn, I actually prefer if people think he's fools gold. I just have been bemused by the disparity between accepting his performance vs accepting Justify's.

I am sanguine about "bouncing," horses only seem to bounce in retrospect. Horses not expected to bounce somehow always have other explanations for running up the track, and horses who were supposed to bounce, but don't...well that gets swept under the rug.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

What are you talking about?

Aidan O'Brien has afforded you 57 bits of data on U.S. dirt.

He's 2-3-2 lifetime.




... the same Rayya who staggered along to top some steed shipping from New Mexico ??


Whyyyyyyyyy are you even talking about either one??

I don't understand this, but anyway, you don't have to be nasty.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

I realize you wrote this before Rayya's work with Abel Tasman. That work suggests she's the real deal.

I wouldn't go that far. Yes, she outbroke Abel Tasman--a historically slow starter--but Rayya has 4 starts this year and been hustled from the gate each time while the latter hasn't raced in 6 months.

Abel Tasman made up the 3 length deficit on Rayya with relative ease (to be fair, Rayya was kept out in the middle of the track). In the stretch, Abel Tasman was well within herself, with Martin Garcia high over the saddle with his hands virtually still on her neck aside from mild taps on her shoulder with a flick of the wrist. Van Dyke meanwhile was low in the saddle and scruffing energetically to get Rayya to keep up at the wire.

FWIW Rayya has a 100% pure dirt pedigree, Tiznow/Corronado's Quest nick. Tiz Wonderful only raced 3 times so we have no idea his potential.

Tiz Wonderful suffered two major injuries, one at 2 and one at 3 despite the limited starts so we definitely have an idea of his inherent soundness. He has made virtually no impact at stud aside from a few sprint fillies and was carted off to South Korea a couple of years ago.

[señorclipclop]

If Rayya wins convincingly, will Mendelssohn vie for favoritism?

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

If Rayya wins convincingly, will Mendelssohn vie for favoritism?

It would surely raise his esteem, in my book.


“Beat the best three-year old filly”, weak as it is, is surely better than “beat a bunch of stiffs in the desert on a fast rail”.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by papillon

As everyone knows, the data for Mendelssohn on dirt is limited to one race at one track at one distance in one path.

However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).

She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second. I would have assumed the "adjusted" track speed would at least rival Justify's 3 seconds, but against the UAE runners, as opposed to for them in Justify's case. This doesn't appear the case.

Using the time honored 1 second = 5 lengths, Mendelssohn's 1:55.18 is exactly what it should have been and his 18th lengths were not due to the rail, but to his effort and his stamina. It seems unlikely the track would have been faster for him than for her, so let's add a second to his time: 1:56.18, which is still fast enough to win most Preaknesses, to account for the differences between her times.

The rail could very well have prevented any horse gaining, but it does not appear to have magically given Mendelssohn 18 lengths. Setting aside all of the "you're a dummy, real time is fake time, fake time is real time" insults coming my way, the internals provide the least objectionable to Oxam's Razor explanation for the results:

1/4

Mendelsohn 25.09 (Thunder Snow 25.73)
Rayya 25.33 (West Coast 25.88)
Gold Coast 25.37 (Pavel 26.12)
Reride 25.57 (Mubtahij 26.77)

3/4

Mendelssohn 1:11.87 (Thunder Snow 1:13.89)
Rayya 1:12.09 (West Coast 1:13.96)
Reride 1:12.17 (Pavel 1:14.11)
Gold Coast 1:12.72 (Mubtahij 1:14.14)

Mile

Mendelssohn 1:36.31 (Thunder Snow 1:37.21)
Rayya 1:37.85 (West Coast 1:37.39)
Reride 1:39.07 (Pavel 1:37.75; Mubtahij 1:38.26)

All horses were carrying 126lbs (except perhaps Rayya).

There is a logical fallacy that a track must be fast and not taxing in order to result in a merry go round order, but that doesn't happen because of the speed of the track. It happens because of how fast each horse took up position and the clip they were traveling at when they did. If all horses are traveling at the same speed, the intial order will not, cannot, change. But as soon as their clips change, their distance between each other changes. And their clips changing is based on lactic acid threshhold.

There is another fallacy that if records fall at a track the track must be faster in relation to other tracks. None of the times posted came anywhere near American track records. The track was faster than it had been in relation to itself, but 2:01 is not fast, unless you mean Justify in the SA derby fast. If so, then Mendelssohn ran the equivalent of 22.09, 1:09.87, 1:33.31, 1:52.18, which I don't think you mean.

My guess is that the track is more tiring than most American tracks, and that Rayya's 3/4 a second was not a gift from the track, but that she actually ran faster, and began to hit the wall between 7-8F, then ran slower and slower. This is in perfect unison with the results, and means that Mendelssohn's 18 lengths were because he did not begin to hit the wall until 8-9f. If I'm right, Rayya should be in the derby, not the oaks. And Mendelssohn is the fastest 3yo.

Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.

Whether he has a shot will be decided to how close to the front he can get, and when the other horses hit their thresholds. If his UAE derby is indicitive he will hit his late in the stretch. There won't be many that can match that.

I'm not saying he'll win, he likely won't for a whole slew of reasons.


FWIW West Coast and Pavel hit their lactic acid threshold exactly where they always do 6-7f. They ran the exact same race they always do, it's just people had decided that West Coast was a world beater. If he was he should have easily passed Gunrunner in the Pegagsus due to the iron law of crosswinds of which he had sat in the cat bird seat for the entire race, while Collected and Gunrunner took the full brunt. Gunrunner's effort in the Pegasus was so much better than even those who know it was oustanding will ever realize because they do not understand crosswinds. I said all of this on Bloodhorse well before the race FWIW, if you'd like to check.

She ran 1.2 seconds faster than her Stakes Record time in the UAE Oaks. The fastest time any filly has ever run over that distance at that track and she knocked over 1.2 seconds off her mark. Keep thinking the track didn't carry those horses.