Good Magic

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Wouldn't surprise me.

Justify is gonna take a lot of money, as will Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum, and Bolt. At best, he'll be 5th favorite and upwards to 7th choice come post time.

Gotta a feeling Justify goes off at 5/2. It is Baffert. It is Mike Smith. He won the Santa Anita Derby handily by a widening margin and has yet to really be tested as an undefeated horse. His figures are getting better as the distances increase, and while you can point to a number of questions with 'curses' and distance, there isn't a single horse in the field that has answered the 10 furlong bell till it rings the first Saturday in May.

I think Audible will end up as 2nd favorite. His Holy Bull and Florida Derby were awfully impressive.

Justify, Audible, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn will all take more money than Good Magic. And likely Bolt will as well. That leaves Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, Solomini, and My Boy Jack as possible contenders for 6th, 7th, 8th favorites.

Thus, I can certainly see 12/1 on GM. Sounds crazy, until you really break it down.

Mendelssohn answered the 9.5 furlong bell and the way he was out in front by 18 lengths I am guessing the last .5 furlong would have not been a issue.

And don’t even try to bring up the quality of field he faced in the UAE Derby as a Justify fan you are the last person who can bring up quality of horses faced to knock another horse lol

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

Exactly.

I saw that Battaglia was talking about 7 horses being 10/1 or less.

That is beyond nuts. He does realize there are 13 other horses in the race in one of the deepest KD fields in quite a long time, right?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by LoneF

Mendelssohn answered the 9.5 furlong bell and the way he was out in front by 18 lengths I am guessing the last .5 furlong would have not been a issue.

And don’t even try to bring up the quality of field he faced in the UAE Derby as a Justify fan you are the last person who can bring up quality of horses faced to knock another horse lol

I'm far from a Justify 'fanboy'. I was simply giving the reasons why he'll be the chalk.

The day I bet the favorite in the Kentucky Derby is when someone has handed me $1 Million and put a gun to my head to go bet it for them.

[1GCFAN]

Lately the crowd has been betting everything (remember Patch). No more 50-1 or 100-1 shots. There may be some surprising value after Justify and Mendelssohn.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I'm far from a Justify 'fanboy'. I was simply giving the reasons why he'll be the chalk.

The day I bet the favorite in the Kentucky Derby is when someone has handed me $1 Million and put a gun to my head to go bet it for them.

Nicely put! Right there with you. I respect that one bigtime but know that to really make some coin on this single race, outside of linked bets, which is where I will spread, that horse needs to not win at the very least. I think there are a few that will be worth betting in this one.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by 1GCFAN

Lately the crowd has been betting everything (remember Patch). No more 50-1 or 100-1 shots. There may be some surprising value after Justify and Mendelssohn.

Started after Giacomo and then Mine That Bird came along to cement the overbet Triple Crown longshot.

[PhantomOnTour]

As of now, based solely on my eyes, having not seen the pp's... Good Magic is my choice to win it

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'll Have Another had an even lesser figure than GM. He went from a 5th best last out 94 BSF to roses. Barbaro was 13 points behind Sinister Minister. Giacomo was 25 points behind Bellamy Road. Beyer absolutely blows chunks when it comes to rating 9F preps. I wouldn't be shocked if just using the fastest raw time has a higher Derby impact value than highest BSF.

From final prep to derby beyer I'll Have Another improved 6 pts, Barbaro 8, Giacomo 5... Even if Good Magic improves by 8 I just dont think its enough vs this crop. Good Magic's path to the winners circle is gonna need a pace meltdown sucking in some of the better horses.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If I was going to make an argument FOR Good Magic id say if you believe the Apollo Curse and 0-51 Storm Cat line will continue, no UAE Derby winner has hit the board, and that the only winner that had a worst dosage # than Audible was Nyquist, who does that leave at the top? Bolt and Good Magic? - and Good Magic already beat Bolt.

[Mc990]

Sheet players will like him...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Sheet players will like him...

He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

I'm really interested in what Noble Indy, Audible, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso's Sheet numbers look like. Got a feeling one or two of those is gonna look really appetizing.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

I'm really interested in what Noble Indy, Audible, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso's Sheet numbers look like. Got a feeling one or two of those is gonna look really appetizing.

I can certainly see the argument for making his FOY a couple points slower though. That being said, I think he would still look strong... I liked his Bluegrass, he conceded quite a bit of ground

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Mc990

I can certainly see the argument for making his FOY a couple points slower though. That being said, I think he would still look strong... I liked his Bluegrass, he conceded quite a bit of ground

He is an always coming forward horse that isn't a deep closer. He is obviously a favorite of mine, but he is hard to peg into a category for me.

Is he a stalker? Not really I don't think. He isn't pace reliant either as he has 'some' tactical speed, and he certainly isn't a front runner.

Best I can categorize him is as a grinder that won't quit. He'll keep coming no matter what; and he won't be 10 to 15 back either.

Reminds me a lot of Mucho Macho Man. Wasn't much flash or supposed "greatness" about him, but the guy showed up almost every time.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

He was a big time Sheet play in the Juvy.

I'll have hard a time believing his 2 races since then have matched, much less improved upon his Juvy number.

From a recent numbers perspective, GM does seem slightly below some others but he fits the winning breeding mold. As I said earlier, If not for the trainer form angle I'd probably be more inclined to leave out of the win pool. He's certainly had a couple decent tests and I get the feeling he's going to be cranked for a big performance. Ever just have a solid gut feeling on a horse?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

From a recent numbers perspective, GM does seem slightly below some others but he fits the winning breeding mold. As I said earlier, If not for the trainer form angle I'd probably be more inclined to leave out of the win pool. He's certainly had a couple decent tests and I get the feeling he's going to be cranked for a big performance. Ever just have a solid gut feeling on a horse?

Yes.

A Maiden in the BC Juvy.