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Old 01-30-2016, 09:13 PM   #1
Ghostzapper04
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Odds Maker

Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.
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Old 01-31-2016, 06:17 AM   #2
Dr Gonzo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghostzapper04
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.
Welcome, Ghostzapper04.

Every software program that I've seen, including ones costing $1500+, fall way short of the mark setting a reasonably accurate odds line. If anyone knows of software that does this calculation well, I'd sure like to know about it.

That being said, I create my own odds line based upon the number of true contenders in the race. For example, 3 contenders might be 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1 totaling about 80% of the win pool. I always leave about 20% for the other horses to make allowances for surprises, bad handicapping etc.

Here is a good place to start : http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/07/m...odds-line.html

Good luck to you.

Doc
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Last edited by Dr Gonzo; 01-31-2016 at 06:18 AM.
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Old 01-31-2016, 06:31 AM   #3
Capper Al
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Welcome Ghostzapper04.

Checkout the thread 'Morning Lines are Just Wrong' for another view of MLs.
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Old 01-31-2016, 09:41 AM   #4
upthecreek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghostzapper04
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.
You could try the FREE Handifast program from a member here Allows you to weight certain factors and gives you fair odds(see attached)
In the example R9 Tampa today the #6 is 10-1 Ml fair odds 3-1

Attached Images
File Type: jpg R9.JPG (45.4 KB, 412 views)

Last edited by upthecreek; 01-31-2016 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 01-31-2016, 11:06 AM   #5
Ghostzapper04
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Originally Posted by Dr Gonzo
Welcome, Ghostzapper04.

Every software program that I've seen, including ones costing $1500+, fall way short of the mark setting a reasonably accurate odds line. If anyone knows of software that does this calculation well, I'd sure like to know about it.

That being said, I create my own odds line based upon the number of true contenders in the race. For example, 3 contenders might be 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1 totaling about 80% of the win pool. I always leave about 20% for the other horses to make allowances for surprises, bad handicapping etc.

Here is a good place to start : http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/07/m...odds-line.html

Good luck to you.

Doc
Very good info. Thanks.
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Old 01-31-2016, 12:14 PM   #6
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In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.
Indeed you would like that, as would every player on the planet.

This is known in horse racing as "The Holy Grail."
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Old 01-31-2016, 12:31 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Indeed you would like that, as would every player on the planet.

This is known in horse racing as "The Holy Grail."
LOL. Not in that sense. 'correct' in a mathematic sense i.e. a 3% horse should be 32:1.
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Old 01-31-2016, 12:36 PM   #8
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And that would be "The Holy Grail."

The goal is to be able to say, "#1 has a 32.2% chance of winning" (and be correct, of course).

(Please note: Not trying to be critical. Just trying to understand.)
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Old 01-31-2016, 12:42 PM   #9
Ghostzapper04
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
And that would be "The Holy Grail."

The goal is to be able to say, "#1 has a 32.2% chance of winning" (and be correct, of course).

(Please note: Not trying to be critical. Just trying to understand.)
Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.
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Old 01-31-2016, 12:56 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Ghostzapper04
Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.
What are your numbers worth if two-thirds of the time they are wrong?
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Old 01-31-2016, 01:22 PM   #11
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Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.
IMHO, raising the tolerance for errors does not negate the need for accuracy and verification.
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Old 01-31-2016, 01:41 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
IMHO, raising the tolerance for errors does not negate the need for accuracy and verification.
Agreed. After I've used this method and have a sample size, if what I think are 15% horses are coming in at 3%, I'm going to have problems. I'll have to keep a sturdy database of this, which I likely wouldn't have if we weren't having this conversation. Thanks, Dave.
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Old 01-31-2016, 02:44 PM   #13
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Agreed. After I've used this method and have a sample size, if what I think are 15% horses are coming in at 3%, I'm going to have problems. I'll have to keep a sturdy database of this, which I likely wouldn't have if we weren't having this conversation. Thanks, Dave.
Good job! The secret to success!


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Old 02-01-2016, 12:51 PM   #14
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Check out, "The Signal And The Noise" and "Precision: Statistical Mathematical Methods In Horse Racing", can find them on Amazon.
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Old 02-10-2016, 12:39 PM   #15
Ghostzapper04
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Got what I was looking for with this Odds Calculator from Derek Simon.

(excel download)

https://valuewagering.files.wordpres...calculator.xls
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