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04-25-2018, 01:56 PM
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#16
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
He may not need the lead, the question is will he feel comfortable going the same pace and be in about 8th or can he go faster early and still finish? Either way its a big unknown for a horse who may be second choice.
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The entire field is an unknown. We will see what happens. No one can predict the break.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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04-25-2018, 02:48 PM
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#17
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
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I can - my horse, whoever it turns out to be, will miss it! 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-25-2018, 02:49 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I can - my horse, whoever it turns out to be, will miss it! |
yup, lead pipe lock
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04-27-2018, 08:35 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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this horse scares the chit out of me. the more i study and watch him..the more i like him.
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04-27-2018, 09:58 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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this one worries me im tossing from the top of my tickets. got rave reviews how he looked today
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04-27-2018, 12:01 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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MM is a good gate horse. Of course you never know how they're going to react to the huge crowds and general hub-bub of CDX on Derby Day. His good gate speed is somewhat counteracted by his tendency to drift in the stretch. I believe there are 2 races where he drifted.
Pletcher horses have won derby on sloppy/wet tracks on the rail, and one time he got Borel who was perfect for that kind of ride.
All said, I have no problem leaving him off the win portion of my ticket, this isn't GP or NY and I just don't think, as a combo, that pletcher/JV are going to pull off back-to-back derby wins .
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04-27-2018, 01:19 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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I look at the Rebel and he hit the 3/4 in 1:11 and change. Then no real pressure in the Ark and he crawled at 1:13 and change. Perhaps the track was a little slow after rain the previous evening but doubt it was that slow. Hard to get a solid read on him but I am tentatively deciding to leave off my tickets altogether unless he draws an inside hole. His E1/E2 route pace figures are light while doing it from easy posts 6,4,5 in previous three outings. If he runs the same style then I predict he will be passing horses late but finish off the board. If he hangs with the leaders then I question how his speed will hold up late. There are just too many nice horses this year and some will necessarily need to be excluded from tickets.
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04-27-2018, 01:33 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Lot of talent this year. Can't have an endless amount of includes if you want to drill down likely mediocre payoffs. I'll be not including this one on my P3-4 tickets.
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