All of the major preps were flawed for projecting the Derby

[PowerUpPaynter]

This year if you think about it all of the preps were flawed in one way or the other as far as projecting the derby.

Santa Anita Derby had a slow track and an uncontested leader in a small field largely untalented outside of the top 2.

Wood Memorial has not been a great producer of derby winners in a while and Aqueduct has been playing fast.

Florida Derby had 2 horses run off to a pace meltdown that certainly made Audible and Hofburg look more visually impressive than they probably are.

Arkansas Derby was such a slow pace that it produced the fastest 3 closing times for the final 3/8. Combatant 36.30, Magnum Moon 36.47, Solomini 36.81

Bluegrass Stakes I just never trust, it wasnt really a fast pace yet the closing fractions were all sub standard if you like the sub 38 angle. And has really produced some winners that have not been much of a factor of late. Irap (RIP), Brody's Cause, Carpe Diem, Dance With Fate, Java's War, etc...

Louisiana Derby probably the most honestly run prep 22.97/ 46.61/ 1:11.47 - but didnt really feature any of the perceived top end talent to gauge much from.

UAE Derby had Mendelssohn run out to a 18 length win but who knows.


If you dont trust the figures, the times are certainly flawed due to slow paces, slow tracks, etc... What do you go on?

If I had to guess I see the derby fractions something like as follows 23.00/ 47.00/ 1:11.10...

[CincyHorseplayer]

For frontrunners I want to see that they can set or stalk a fast pace and still run a solid figure. Justify's race 2 back makes him the star of this subset. The 9f preps proved nothing except vs a slower pace Justify is faster than Magnum Moon.

Unless the 2nd call was 112 or worse there weren't any really slow paces. For closers many players are quick to give a pass for a horse that closed into a mediocre or slow pace. I don't take such a forgiving stance. For many of them they were lucky they were close at the end at all. The slow pace allowed them to be near it to run at it. Most of these horses will end up mediocrities and a fast pace would leave them stranded at the drive in, labled a fool! With 3yo's that have not completely forged recognizable identities in regards to running style and pace comfort zones. I am assigning virtue to the closers who have participated in fast paced races and were able to put a dent in them. Despite inheriting a collapsing front end they proved that the fast pace is able to be overcome. They are fit right now. Closers unable to answer this question are 2nd rate.

Anyway regarding contenders all you really need to know is 22 of 26 last Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last prep. Of the other 4 Thunder Gulch ran in two 9f preps and won the Florida Derby. If anybody thinks the other 3 Giacomo, Mine That Bird, and Sea Hero are archetypes they are sadly mistaken. For all the rationale spewed out by players this time of year knocking contenders, this is their basis for hope and optimism. Who is less rational?

[headhawg]

A smart, sensible post Cincy.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

For frontrunners I want to see that they can set or stalk a fast pace and still run a solid figure. Justify's race 2 back makes him the star of this subset. The 9f preps proved nothing except vs a slower pace Justify is faster than Magnum Moon.

Unless the 2nd call was 112 or worse there weren't any really slow paces. For closers many players are quick to give a pass for a horse that closed into a mediocre or slow pace. I don't take such a forgiving stance. For many of them they were lucky they were close at the end at all. The slow pace allowed them to be near it to run at it. Most of these horses will end up mediocrities and a fast pace would leave them stranded at the drive in, labled a fool! With 3yo's that have not completely forged recognizable identities in regards to running style and pace comfort zones. I am assigning virtue to the closers who have participated in fast paced races and were able to put a dent in them. Despite inheriting a collapsing front end they proved that the fast pace is able to be overcome. They are fit right now. Closers unable to answer this question are 2nd rate.

Anyway regarding contenders all you really need to know is 22 of 26 last Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last prep. Of the other 4 Thunder Gulch ran in two 9f preps and won the Florida Derby. If anybody thinks the other 3 Giacomo, Mine That Bird, and Sea Hero are archetypes they are sadly mistaken. For all the rationale spewed out by players this time of year knocking contenders, this is their basis for hope and optimism. Who is less rational?

I love it . Two races back makes Justify a star LOL

Two races back he raced in a 5 horse field. The other 4 horses were low level allowance and claiming types. The racing secretary really had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill that race and make it go. How does anything he did in that race against horses who literally are not qualified to be Mendelssohns warm up pony prove anything. ANY horse in this years field ( including Friezen Fire ) would have looked like Secretariat racing against those 4 same horses that Justify did two back .

The dillusion runs deep ..... What is it that PT Barnum used to say ?

[LoneF]

Let’s take a closer look at the 4 horses that Justify beat two back in the race that that launched Justify into STARDOM

I will do my research and report back

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

For frontrunners I want to see that they can set or stalk a fast pace and still run a solid figure. Justify's race 2 back makes him the star of this subset. The 9f preps proved nothing except vs a slower pace Justify is faster than Magnum Moon.

Unless the 2nd call was 112 or worse there weren't any really slow paces. For closers many players are quick to give a pass for a horse that closed into a mediocre or slow pace. I don't take such a forgiving stance. For many of them they were lucky they were close at the end at all. The slow pace allowed them to be near it to run at it. Most of these horses will end up mediocrities and a fast pace would leave them stranded at the drive in, labled a fool! With 3yo's that have not completely forged recognizable identities in regards to running style and pace comfort zones. I am assigning virtue to the closers who have participated in fast paced races and were able to put a dent in them. Despite inheriting a collapsing front end they proved that the fast pace is able to be overcome. They are fit right now. Closers unable to answer this question are 2nd rate.

Anyway regarding contenders all you really need to know is 22 of 26 last Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last prep. Of the other 4 Thunder Gulch ran in two 9f preps and won the Florida Derby. If anybody thinks the other 3 Giacomo, Mine That Bird, and Sea Hero are archetypes they are sadly mistaken. For all the rationale spewed out by players this time of year knocking contenders, this is their basis for hope and optimism. Who is less rational?

Can I say one thing in defense of the longshot punters? And that is, if you hit the exotics in Giacomo's year those were life changing payoffs. Hitting 2005 would make up for missing a lot of other Derbies.

So if you really do have a plausible theory for a Giacomo, it may be worth trying to hit something big. The uniqueness of the Derby may encourage a bit of gambling.

It isn't how I approach the race- I like Justify- but I do understand it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Can I say one thing in defense of the longshot punters? And that is, if you hit the exotics in Giacomo's year those were life changing payoffs. Hitting 2005 would make up for missing a lot of other Derbies.

So if you really do have a plausible theory for a Giacomo, it may be worth trying to hit something big. The uniqueness of the Derby may encourage a bit of gambling.

It isn't how I approach the race- I like Justify- but I do understand it.

Out of those longshots, Charismatic, Sea Hero, MTB were all playable. MTB showed what he was capable of as a 2 year old winning the Canadian Cup.

Giacomo looked like he was close in every race.....maybe the owner/trainer were holding him.back? But out of all the long shot winners, Giacomo is the only horse that had me scratching my head after the race, even a week after the race I still tried to cap him in winning the race & couldn't figure it out.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Out of those longshots, Charismatic, Sea Hero, MTB were all playable. MTB showed what he was capable of as a 2 year old winning the Canadian Cup.

Giacomo looked like he was close in every race.....maybe the owner/trainer were holding him.back? But out of all the long shot winners, Giacomo is the only horse that had me scratching my head after the race, even a week after the race I still tried to cap him in winning the race & couldn't figure it out.

I've looked at MTB many times and only thing I have going for him was Borel, Mineshaft, and a field of slow horses ( who all regressed figure wise), plus I want revenge scratched. Even though he is my namesake I had Pioneer ATB so I still made money but betting a horse like that in the Derby still seems crazy.