Best ways to prepare for the Bleeders' Cup

[Capper Al]

Getting ready for the Breeders' Cup. What's your record? I'm thinking the best way may be to put the effort into contests. This way there is some control, or is there? What to do if your top pick is going off at 25/1? Do you even know that the International circuit is different the North American in more ways than speed figures? Do you record your BC races separate from your North American? Do you have a clue what's up besides an enjoyable time? Do you need more than an enjoyable time? Who cares? Live and let die. I'm staying with the contest, but think at 25/1 on any of my top shots that I'm betting. Good luck and have fun!

[Capper Al]

Reviewed last year's classic. The winner paid fourteen bucks and change. The winner was in the bottom half of the field in speed, class, and connections. It didn't have good workout times either. The trackman had him at 15/1, I believe. So how does one handicap this race?

[CincyHorseplayer]

First off thank the God of equine that it's on Santa Anita dirt.Form holds up well there.East and midwest weather makes things suspect.Personally I got smoked last year during the BC.It's worth the plunge though.I've had some big days on the BC.The pools are disproportionately good.The races are usually so competitive though anything can happen.My whole approach is going to be conservative on how many races I play,but excessive in how I play them.Go for it in spots.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Reviewed last year's classic. The winner paid fourteen bucks and change. The winner was in the bottom half of the field in speed, class, and connections. It didn't have good workout times either. The trackman had him at 15/1, I believe. So how does one handicap this race?

Not sure where you got $14 from, Al.
Drosselmeyer paid just shy of his 15-1 ML:

2011 BC Classic

3 Drosselmeyer Mike E. Smith 31.60 13.20 8.80
8 Game On Dude Chantal Sutherland 13.60 9.20
4 Ruler On Ice Garrett K. Gomez 9.80
Also ran: 10 – Havre de Grace, 2 – Flat Out, 5 – So You Think (NZ), 13 – To Honor and Serve, 6 – Ice Box, 7 – Rattlesnake Bridge, 12 – Uncle Mo, 9 – Stay Thirsty, 11 – Headache

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Not sure where you got $14 from, Al.

Unless he meant per dollar.. but that's not how horsebettors talk.. that may be how investment analysts talk..

[CincyHorseplayer]

Getting a little nitpicky without addressing Al's basic question.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Not sure where you got $14 from, Al.
Drosselmeyer paid just shy of his 15-1 ML:

2011 BC Classic

3 Drosselmeyer Mike E. Smith 31.60 13.20 8.80
8 Game On Dude Chantal Sutherland 13.60 9.20
4 Ruler On Ice Garrett K. Gomez 9.80
Also ran: 10 – Havre de Grace, 2 – Flat Out, 5 – So You Think (NZ), 13 – To Honor and Serve, 6 – Ice Box, 7 – Rattlesnake Bridge, 12 – Uncle Mo, 9 – Stay Thirsty, 11 – Headache

Thanks. I posted from work and couldn't remember.

[Capper Al]

The question is can you pick the winner after the race? If not, how does one expect to pick it before the race?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Getting a little nitpicky without addressing Al's basic question.The hole in your face should at least address what's being talked about.Or you risk douchebag status at your own peril.

Could care less about my status around here.
At least, with anyone but the moderators.
Was not trying to insult Al but, for those sensitive types, I will address the topic at hand.

I approach BC races pretty much the same as any other.
Naturally, the pools are huge and the rewards can be great if you happen to nail the right races.

Analyzing races, for me, comes down to attributing "contender" status for between 1-5 horses in any given race. The rest of the field are "non-contenders" in my book. Should there be more, or many more, contenders than five in a race, it's usually a pass for me.
Invariably, some of the non-contenders jump up and bite you sometimes, but who said this was easy?
The race becomes less attractive as a betting proposition if the selections include 3, or more, of the top betting favorites. Your value decreases, and often you are playing only to cash a ticket. I like to have one, or more, horses in there at 8-1 plus. The higher the odds the better, as long as I give the horse a legitimate chance.
Short odds (3-1 to even money) can be played in the right situation, also.
Living near Nevada, I have the luxury of betting house quinellas if I have a race narrowed down to two short odds contenders.
In those situations, they often pay 10-40% higher than exactas, or track quinellas.
Going to be a sad day for me when they are no longer offered.

Next question: vertical, horizontal, or both?
I could go on and on about how the races set up on any particular card, and what betting strategy to use. For me, it varies from card to card.
Don't consider my bankroll suitable for PK5/PK6 wagers. I ignore those wagers 98% of the time.
When you get a feel for what's on offer that day - selection wise and betting menu wise, it comes down to personal choice as to which route you take.
Much of it comes down to the player, and the feel they have for their own M.O.
Most often, playing every race on a card is a recipe for disaster.
Pick your spots, and play to your strengths.

Good luck to you, Al, over Breeders' Cup and here's hoping everyone at PA cashes some big tickets!

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The question is can you pick the winner after the race? If not, how does one expect to pick it before the race?

That's a good question and, often, the answer is no.

Off the top of my head, I liked Havre De Grace in last year's Classic.
Game On Dude came up second choice for me, and the odds were good.
I bet him win/place, and made a small profit on the race.

Drosselmeyer came up fourth, or fifth choice, for me.
I knew he would like the distance, but wasn't sure he was good enough.
Stayed away from exotics on the race, took a loss over the two days, and moved on.
There's always another race to play.......

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

That's a good question and, often, the answer is no.

Off the top of my head, I liked Havre De Grace in last year's Classic.
Game On Dude came up second choice for me, and the odds were good.
I bet him win/place, and made a small profit on the race.

Drosselmeyer came up fourth, or fifth choice, for me.
I knew he would like the distance, but wasn't sure he was good enough.
Stayed away from exotics on the race, took a loss over the two days, and moved on.
There's always another race to play.......

What were you looking at that made Drosselmeyer your fourth choice?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

What were you looking at that made Drosselmeyer your fourth choice?

His previous best numbers weren't a million miles away from the tops in the race.
He had been off a long time through injury from 3-4, but had run some okay races since.
Those races, mind you, were not good enough to win the Classic.
He would have to find more.

The biggest positive (which I didn't deem strong enough at the time) was Bill Mott's confidence to run him in the Classic after some strong workouts.
The recent numbers in races for the horse suggested that Drosselmeyer was a better fit in the easier Marathon.
He had the back class for the Classic, but seemed more of a steady runner, who really needed at least a mile and a half.
Didn't appear to have the pace for a top class 10 furlong race - unless the tempo was strong, and caused many of the top candidates to fade.
No doubt, the horse could run all day - but had the appearance of a plodder.

The rest, of course, is history.
I had him a borderline contender with some positives.
Not positive enough, though, to pull the trigger.

[Aner]

I've bet money on every Breeders Cup race ever run. Not selective at all. Sometimes friends want me to pick a horse they can bet. They say, "Just tell me your best bet of the day". And that is the rub - I don't know which horse is best until after the race has finished. Because I can't zero in on a best bet, I play them all.

I do bet more on these big races. Most of my money will be in vertical bets, because it is much easier to "see" one race well instead of a series of races. Doubt I'll bet any exacta or trifecta without a 10:1+ horse in the mix.

[FantasticDan]

Didn't Gerry Cooney win the Bleeder's Cup one year?

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

Didn't Gerry Cooney win the Bleeder's Cup one year?

I won it last year. Bled out my entire bankroll!!!