What happened.....?

[Track Phantom]

to the prices? This game is full of massive underlays, most at less than 2-1. This is not the game I remember when I broke into it in the mid '80's.

Take a look at some of these recent results:
AQU (2-21-11): 7 of 9 races won by 2-1 or less
PARX (2-22-11): 9 of 10 races won by 3-1 or less
GG (2-21-11): 6 of 9 races won by 5-2 or less
TUP (2-22-11): 5 of 9 races won by 4-5 or less
GP (2-21-11): 6 of 9 races won by 2-1 or less

While there are a smattering of prices here and there, many of those "prices" are horses that are 6-1 bet down from 12-1 morning line. The point I'm making is there are not many formul priced overlays WINNING (not talking about chunking up in the exacta or tri or super). If it is cold on the board, it's not running (or not often enough IMO).

Is it me? Do you all feel the game is the same as always and the number of low payers are equal to yesteryear?

[Stillriledup]

I think you would see things get back to the way they were if you got all the drugs out of the game. People who are not handicappers are skimming money out of the pools because they know which horses are getting the juice and which horses are not.

Without drugs, none of these people would be able to cash nearly as many bets unless they actually handicapped the race and picked the winner (which most of them can't do without help)

Also, there's SO much information out there and people are just smarter than ever.

Some say Beyer figs arent all that great, but they're better than nothing and the public has them basically for free. You weren't getting a 'free speed figure' back in the 1980s, you had to do it yourself.

[newtothegame]

Serious question valento...are you really that upset with this game?
Not trying to be funny...but, you havent started a thread in like 6 or 7 months...
Then you come back and have five threads in the last month or so and seem to be Negative!!
Drug use....pool manipulation...wagering that you dont like... etc etc....
I am just asking as you seem real upset with the sport.
When I get frustrated like that...i try to take a few days off of whatever I am frustrated with.
Maybe a fine cigar...or whyatever your plesure....
Just hate to see someone who seems this frustrated with the game....
And if not frustrated, my apologies...carry on

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

People who are not handicappers are skimming money out of the pools because they know which horses are getting the juice and which horses are not.

Funny stuff.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by newtothegame

Serious question valento...are you really that upset with this game?
Not trying to be funny...but, you havent started a thread in like 6 or 7 months...
Then you come back and have five threads in the last month or so and seem to be Negative!!
Drug use....pool manipulation...wagering that you dont like... etc etc....
I am just asking as you seem real upset with the sport.
When I get frustrated like that...i try to take a few days off of whatever I am frustrated with.
Maybe a fine cigar...or whyatever your plesure....
Just hate to see someone who seems this frustrated with the game....
And if not frustrated, my apologies...carry on

Thanks for your concern but you didn't answer my question. Why don't we just keep the conversation to the points raised and not try to read more into it? Seems like an awful lot of typing and concern for someone you don't know.

[Tuffmug]

Fav win %'s a lot higher than I recall.
FAV
WIN ITM
Aqu 43% 74%
PHA 38% 68%
SA 38% 71%
PEN 51% 73%
GGX 37% 74%
FG 40% 71%
GP 31% 65%
TB 36% 71%
CT 38% 72%
LAU 43% 75%

and the late money swings in the Tote on the winner tells me big smart money hammering the pools.

[RXB]

Shorter fields = lower prices.

And yes, the public is more sophisticated, for sure. Although the horses' form might be a shade less reliable due to increasing soundness issues that are pervading the breed.

[duncan04]

Originally Posted by Valento

Thanks for your concern but you didn't answer my question. Why don't we just keep the conversation to the points raised and not try to read more into it? Seems like an awful lot of typing and concern for someone you don't know.

Wow really???

[newtothegame]

Originally Posted by Valento

Thanks for your concern but you didn't answer my question. Why don't we just keep the conversation to the points raised and not try to read more into it? Seems like an awful lot of typing and concern for someone you don't know.

Ok fair enough.....(although I still think you could use some pleasure time, especially after your "downs syndrome" comment and now your "negativity to me) lol....But that's ok...
My answer would be that with the age of the internet, people are afforded more information then before, therefore making things a bit "smarter".
There is a ton of information out there now days which people may have not had in the past. More information is my final answer lol.

[Mechanic]

Originally Posted by RXB

Shorter fields = lower prices.

And yes, the public is more sophisticated, for sure.

My 60 day study from 12/23 to 2/22 (all tracks)
1. morning line favorite 32% W, 66% ITM, 0.79 WROI
2. tote favorite 36% W, 69% ITM, 0.84 WROI

win percentage remains constant while the ROI continues to drop year after year.
Whales, a better informed public and increasing takeout make it tough for chalk players! do your home work, find an edge, pick your spots.
There have been some nice ones at GP, but like all good things that could change in short time, on to the next.

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by Tuffmug

Fav win %'s a lot higher than I recall.
FAV
WIN ITM
Aqu 43% 74%
PHA 38% 68%
SA 38% 71%
PEN 51% 73%
GGX 37% 74%
FG 40% 71%
GP 31% 65%
TB 36% 71%
CT 38% 72%
LAU 43% 75%

and the late money swings in the Tote on the winner tells me big smart money hammering the pools.

Could it be the economy?

Maybe!!


________
David-LV

[garyscpa]

It's the smart, wealthy people at Gulfstream who bet right at the bell who are bringing down the prices on all the winners.

Thanks to simulcasting they are making this a common occurrence at all tracks.

[Mineshaft]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Funny stuff.

Its not funny its the truth. People know on the backside who is getting what and that spreads like wildfire.

[Coleman]

I've been wasting my time handicapping; I'm going to go get a job as a groom. Here comes success!

[precocity]

I have notice a lot of favs winning lately no wonder I have been losing my azz