Brexit - British Union Leave or Stay

[barn32]

On June 23rd England will vote on whether or not to leave the European Union which they have been a member of since 1973.

Brexit-or British Exit for short is playing havoc with the stock, bond and currency markets as witnessed by the poll that just came out the results of which were seen in Friday's trading.

In this poll the leave factions jumped to 10 point lead, 55-45.

However the betting markets only changed to 1 to 6 from 1 to 7 in favor of remain. This equates to about a 72% chance of remain.

A high voter turnout is predicted to favor remain, while a low voter turnout will favor the leave.

In a recent Scottish referendum the side favored by the polls lost to the side favored by The bookies.

The bond market is gone up eight out of the last 10 days, indicating how nervous people are about this vote.

My bet is with the bookies and the British Union will remain, which should lead to the bond market going down.

[reckless]

The Great Britain exit from the European Union is now more likely to happen in light of the Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

We are getting closer and closer to the dissolution of the EU, thank God. Exactly when this happens I have no clue but it will be sooner rather than later.

Long live an individual country's right of sovereignty, borders, language and culture.

[tanner12oz]

Its going to happen sooner or later..was kinda a hair brained idea from the start

[barn32]

Originally Posted by reckless

The Great Britain exit from the European Union is now more likely to happen in light of the Muslim terrorist attack in Orlando. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

World events can change everything.

[Valuist]

Sounds like a slight lead for the "leave" faction. And if GB does exit, will it trigger other nations to exit as well?

http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-cele...world-forever/

[barn32]

The Leave/Stay Brexit faction has lost a lot of ground. From 72% for stay down to 58%, with about 7 days to go. Still ahead, but narrowing considerably.

The markets do not like uncertainty. World events are playing havoc with bonds and equities. Gold is spiking upward.

Bonds are up this morning almost two full handles.

Triple witching tomorrow (I think). Markets usually rise on triple witching, so we'll just have to see if that's what happens tomorrow.

[I owned 200 shares of LNKD and sold out a week before the MSFT buyout. Cost me around 12K.]

[barn32]

Brexit Campaigns Suspended After Labour Lawmaker Jo Cox Shot

"Both sides suspended campaigning on whether Britain should leave the European Union after a lawmaker was attacked in her district.

Jo Cox, a member of the opposition Labour Party, was hospitalized in a critical condition, with the Press Association reporting she had been shot twice Thursday in West Yorkshire, northern England. Local police said they had arrested a 52-year-old man in the area. It was unclear if the incident was related to the June 23 referendum."

Link

No idea if it's related but the stock and bond markets have come roaring back.

And the stay faction has gone up 5% from 58% to 63% in a very short time.

It was just reported that Jo Cox has died.

[ebcorde]

would hate the EU. so what happens to NATO if they vote split

I used to work with Swiss guys. once we were analyzing one of our own products made in England by our Associate company. Swiss guy looked at me, sneered and said "it's British" 100% disapproval.

[ebcorde]

Worldwide, anything the UK makes China can make much cheaper.

They'll have to negotiate new Trade deals with the EU, I don't expect the EU to forgive.

Turkey will most likely then join the EU irregardless of Terrorism fears.

I laugh because in another 10 years Scotland Wales and the two Ireland could split from the UK.

The world is breaking up into economic regions. US, China, EU , with Russia, Japan and Brazil, India , South Korea on the fringe. The UK will be left out.


The real question is who will the middle east lean towards The EU, Chinese and Russians are working hard to leverage against the US in the middle east

[barn32]

The market has completely reversed today. From down over 100 to up over 100.

Whether this is due in part to the shooting in the UK, (which might have a positive effect for the stay faction, which in turn would steady the markets) or triple witching, I think that triple witching is the deciding factor. (There is a logical reason for triple witching having this effect and it has to do with the unwinding of positions, etc.)

Tomorrow should be another big up day.

[reckless]

I am not sure if the MP who was killed today will have any affect in the Brexit vote. But, I am willing to bet it doesn't have any affect at all since she was killed while trying to intervene in a two-person argument.

I did hear this morning that globalist banker to the 1 percenters and the world's largest corporations, Jamie Dimond of JP Morgan Chase, has visited Britain recently pleading to voters to vote to stay and remain in the European Union.

I hope the good people of Britain understand that when a goniv like Jamie Dimond says that staying in the EZ is the smart move, you can bet it's the worst thing on earth for the everyday citizens of this once-great nation.

The EU's interests and Chase bank's interest are not the best interest of the UK and its people.

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by ebcorde

Worldwide, anything the UK makes China can make much cheaper.

They'll have to negotiate new Trade deals with the EU, I don't expect the EU to forgive.

Turkey will most likely then join the EU irregardless of Terrorism fears.

I laugh because in another 10 years Scotland Wales and the two Ireland could split from the UK.

The world is breaking up into economic regions. US, China, EU , with Russia, Japan and Brazil, India , South Korea on the fringe. The UK will be left out.


The real question is who will the middle east lean towards The EU, Chinese and Russians are working hard to leverage against the US in the middle east

Republic of Ireland has not been part of the UK for almost a century (1922).Ireland is also a member of the EU and there is little desire to leave.

25 + 6=1, baby!

[_______]

Originally Posted by barahona44

Republic of Ireland has not been part of the UK for almost a century (1922).Ireland is also a member of the EU and there is little desire to leave.

25 + 6=1, baby!

Ireland was officially under the soveignty of British royalty until 1937 and the Irish monarchy (same person) until 1948.

Admittedly nitpicking.

[_______]

And I'm sure you know the error in the equation you posted.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by _______

Ireland was officially under the soveignty of British royalty until 1937 and the Irish monarchy (same person) until 1948.

Admittedly nitpicking.

Technically, you're right - in practice, ehhh.
It was dominion status in name only.
For all intents and purposes, Britain ruled only
in the 6 counties of Ulster from 1922.
The British monarchy had no influence or bearing
in Dublin from that point onwards.

The Irish Free State was established then,
and was dissolved in 1937 when the constitution
of the Republic of Ireland came into being.

As far as the Brexit vote goes,
Britain leaving the EU would be, at least,
a short term disaster for the Irish economy.

Chances are it won't come to that.
The vote figures to be closer than many
would have thought months ago,
but Britain should still remain in the EU when it's done.