Frankel runs Wednesday (8-22)

[gm10]

Originally Posted by trp

From a Nov. 8, 2010 article by Beyer:

"According to Randy Moss, who created the Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form, Zenyatta was running as fast in the early stages of the Classic as in any of her races over the last two years. Yet she was out of contact with the rest of the field."

I don't interpret Moss's statement as saying Z ran close to her typical early fractions in the 2010 Classic, but rather she ran at the upper end of her early pace range.

That's very close to what CJ posted.

The raw fraction itself ("FRAC") was actually close to her usual, but in relative terms ("EARLY_SPEED") it was on the high side for her.

DATE	       TRACK	FRAC 	EARLY_SPEED
06-Nov-10	CD	25.69	30
02-Oct-10	OTH	25.63	5
07-Aug-10	DMR	26.56	1
13-Jun-10	HOL	25.84	9
09-Apr-10	OP	25.31	6
13-Mar-10	SA	25.11	15
07-Nov-09	OSA	26.53	17
10-Oct-09	OSA	25.97	2
09-Aug-09	DMR	25.86	4
27-Jun-09	HOL	25.41	20
23-May-09	HOL	25.4	9
24-Oct-08	OSA	25.01	12
27-Sep-08	OSA	24.67	22
02-Aug-08	DMR	24.73	34
05-Jul-08	HOL	25.45	23
31-May-08	HOL	25.48	4
05-Apr-08	OP	24.7	28
13-Jan-08	SA	25.16	2
15-Dec-07	HOL	24.45	22
22-Nov-07	HOL	23.22	13

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

...Moss was wrong about the times.

An apology is in order. It wasn't Moss that was wrong, but CH remembering what Moss wrote.

[KingChas]

Originally Posted by cj

An apology is in order. It wasn't Moss that was wrong, but CH remembering what Moss wrote.

Well I certaintly was U huh,hoss...................

[KingChas]

Correction to CJ quote;
Well It certaintly wasn't U that was wrong, huh,hoss...............

[cj]

Originally Posted by KingChas

Correction to CJ quote;
Well It certaintly wasn't U that was wrong, huh,hoss...............

Well, not in this case it wasn't. I've been wrong many times before though, and I'm sure I will be again very soon.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

An apology is in order. It wasn't Moss that was wrong, but CH remembering what Moss wrote.

I don't think anyone owes anyone an apology.

I never said Moss said she ran similar fractions in both Classics. I said Moss said she ran back to her "typical" fractions and then clarified it further when you compared her two Classics.

We were just looking at two different things.

But the the key point I was making had nothing to do with the fractions.

I never even argued that Moss or you were wrong about the fractions.

I argued there is a difference between a fraction of X going easily and comfortably and a fraction of X getting squeezed a little, looking a little uncomfortable and climbing slightly like a horse that doesn't like the surface or kickback, getting disconnected, and then being used to run the fraction you normally run easily and comfortably.

IMO, she didn't run to fractions. She ran to position. Her fractions were typically a function of field size and the pace in front of her. (They were backing down the paces on her in CA for more than year trying to beat her. That's why she has so many 90s Beyers. She'd just move at the same time, had the speed to get where she had to be turning for home, and then close them down anyway.)

I don't have the time to handicap all races in nearly as much depth as I do major stakes. I don't even look at all stakes in depth. But I often do look at major stakes very closely because I love them and because my classing and other techniques have been very profitable for me for many years and outperform numbers in those types of races. But a lot of it is subjective - which is what makes it profitable and hard to prove.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think he was comparing her typical early fractions adjusted for turns and track speed over a series of races to the 2010 Classic and saying they were similar.

This is what I was referencing. I said he was wrong if he said that, but he didn't. He said the same thing I did. It was definitely one of her fastest, and certainly her fastest in some time.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Why do the Euros always have to come to America and not the other way around?
Frankel would fare much better in the Classic on American dirt than Game On Dude would in the Juddmonte Int'l on turf...do you disagree?
American horses rarely go to race in Europe because the trainers and owners know what would happen...ass kicking.
Why didn't Cigar and Zenyatta go run at Royal Ascot?....bums

They didn't go because there is no dirt. We do have turf here. But regardless, the point is that we never call our horses the best in the world because we recognize that some other horses in other countries might have a thing or two to say about that. Frankel may be the best horse in Europe, and the best turf horse in the world, but we turn out the best dirt horses in the world and Frankel can put forth no evidence that he'd even beat our third tier dirt horses. So just stick to calling him what he's proven to be.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

They didn't go because there is no dirt. We do have turf here. But regardless, the point is that we never call our horses the best in the world because we recognize that some other horses in other countries might have a thing or two to say about that. Frankel may be the best horse in Europe, and the best turf horse in the world, but we turn out the best dirt horses in the world and Frankel can put forth no evidence that he'd even beat our third tier dirt horses. So just stick to calling him what he's proven to be.

A somewhat valid point, but then consider that every independent rating service has Frankel among the greatest of all time and the form lines over the horses he has defeated is impressive would make it a clear to all those, except the willingful blind, that Frankel is better then any dirt or poly horse out there. The expectation for him to race on dirt to prove he is the best of all horses is insane, as such I call then that who ever the best dirt/poly horse in America go over to that side of the pond to prove themselves....oh wait, Game on Dude and Royal Delta already did that in March....how they do again?

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Some_One

A somewhat valid point, but then consider that every independent rating service has Frankel among the greatest of all time and the form lines over the horses he has defeated is impressive would make it a clear to all those, except the willingful blind, that Frankel is better then any dirt or poly horse out there. The expectation for him to race on dirt to prove he is the best of all horses is insane, as such I call then that who ever the best dirt/poly horse in America go over to that side of the pond to prove themselves....oh wait, Game on Dude and Royal Delta already did that in March....how they do again?

How did Frankel do again? At least the others showed up. Can't lose if you don't run. Sarcasm begets sarcasm, otherwise I wouldn't have mentioned that he didn't run at all, even though he had his choice of races in which to run, all over surfaces to his liking.

I don't think he has to run on dirt. I do think, though, that proving one's self on both surfaces adds to a horse's accomplishments. Europeans aren't generally going to attempt or care to attempt dirt given they have no dirt tracks, but we have greats in our history who did attempt and excel on both.