he made millions betting racing

[Half Smoke]

_____________


really great (IMO) archived blog from Barry Meadow re Tim Haley

much of his big buckeroonis came from rebates

not part of any team, in 2002 he pushed thru more than $24 mill

had only a 0.95% R.O.I. against the takeout

amazing - to me, anyway - if it hadn't come from Barry I don't think I would have believed it


.
https://horseracinggold.com/Horse-Ra...-Article-2.htm


.

[andicap]

Even though he's lived there for months, Haley's hotel room resembles the bachelor pad of a horseplayer who's on a two-week gambling bender. Clothes are piled in a closet, a suitcase laying disinterestedly on the floor. Everywhere are strewn Racing Forms, Simulcast Weeklies, and Haley's own stat sheets.

Sounds like my NYC apartment when I was a bachelor in the late 80s and early 90s.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

_____________


really great (IMO) archived blog from Barry Meadow re Tim Haley

much of his big buckeroonis came from rebates

not part of any team, in 2002 he pushed thru more than $24 mill

had only a 0.95% R.O.I. against the takeout

amazing - to me, anyway - if it hadn't come from Barry I don't think I would have believed it


.
https://horseracinggold.com/Horse-Ra...-Article-2.htm


.

Love to see his results data , something along my lines. I think I could do a $0.95 return on a $1 bet @ 50% win %. I think I can possibly improve on the $0.95 with a lower win %

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Love to see his results data , something along my lines. I think I could do a $0.95 return on a $1 bet @ 50% win %. I think I can possibly improve on the $0.95 with a lower win %

how would you get a 50% win %_______?

betting on horses to win at about even money_____?

or are you referring to some kind of exacta combination________?

or maybe you mean dutching higher odds horses_________?

and what are your selection criteria other than the odds themselves__________?


.

[davew]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Love to see his results data , something along my lines. I think I could do a $0.95 return on a $1 bet @ 50% win %. I think I can possibly improve on the $0.95 with a lower win %

results for one race at Oaklawn

$1000 exacta box 6-10
$600 exacta box 9-10
$200 exacta box 10 with 1-3
$100 exacta box 10 with 4-12
$100 trifecta box 1-6-10
$50 trifecta box 2-6-10
$100 trifecta box 3-6-10
$20 trifecta box 4-6-10
$150 trifecta box 6-9-10
$30 trifecta box 6-10-12

A nice, round $7,100 bet



10 got pinched off at start, finished off the board -> 0% cashed tickets

return about $840 in rebate


I read the article to find this ....

[formula_2002]

how would you get a 50% win %
most often playing the top three, sometimes just the top two

betting on horses to win at about even money
same as the above (tope three or two). win plays only

or are you referring to some kind of exacta combination
no

or maybe you mean dutching higher odds horses_________?
proportional odds bets based on my generated odds line


and what are your selection criteria other than the odds line
themselves__________?
analysis of win, place, shown and exacta pools

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by davew

results for one race at Oaklawn

$1000 exacta box 6-10
$600 exacta box 9-10
$200 exacta box 10 with 1-3
$100 exacta box 10 with 4-12
$100 trifecta box 1-6-10
$50 trifecta box 2-6-10
$100 trifecta box 3-6-10
$20 trifecta box 4-6-10
$150 trifecta box 6-9-10
$30 trifecta box 6-10-12

A nice, round $7,100 bet



10 got pinched off at start, finished off the board -> 0% cashed tickets

return about $840 in rebate


I read the article to find this ....

840/7100 = 11.8% in rebates. wow. who offers that?

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

how would you get a 50% win %
most often playing the top three, sometimes just the top two

I've looked at this too

what I've seen is that you most often cannot get a profit equal to the amount that you bet by dutching the top 2

and almost never the top 3

assuming that you're looking for an approximately equal amount paid back no matter which horse wins

the exception is with a large field or with a very cold fave

and that doesn't happen too often

I could be missing something


.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I've looked at this too

what I've seen is that you most often cannot get a profit equal to the amount that you bet by dutching the top 2

and almost never the top 3

assuming that you're looking for an approximately equal amount paid back no matter which horse wins

the exception is with a large field or with a very cold fave

and that doesn't happen too often

I could be missing something


.

left something out

so what I've seen is that you would generally have to have a win rate of much greater than 50% to be at all profitable


.

[formula_2002]

I've looked at this too

what I've seen is that you most often cannot get a profit equal to the amount that you bet by dutching the top 2

and almost never the top 3

assuming that you're looking for an approximately equal amount paid back no matter which horse wins
thats dutching .
I'm playing a proportional odds bet Based On My Odds Line.
I look at those results two ways

1. return/ bet
2. (winning bet size x $1 odds payout )/total bet on all plays
example total bet is say $30, say the win returns $4 for every dollar bet
say the total bet on winner is $16.

then:
(16 x 4)/ 30 = $2.13 (thats $2.13 on the dollar)
while (16 x 4 )/16 = $4.00

the plays were 57% of the win poll, requiring a min $ return of 1/.57 = $1.75



the exception is with a large field or with a very cold fav.

and that doesn't happen too often

I could be missing something

[Half Smoke]

__________


okay, so this will be my last question


so - you're saying that Your Odds Line will be significantly different than the odds line of the public fairly often________?

and that is based on looking at the win, place, show and exacta pools_____?

so, you're saying that the public will fairly often have a horse at 4/1 whereas Your Odds Line has the horse at 2/1_________?

also, because of the late great bettors what you see in those pools can fairly often be way off from what the final pool %s are after no more bets are allowed

because of the late great whales and the CRW teams

even if some of the late betting has been restricted this would still require some mind boggling calculations that need to be made very, very quickly



.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________


okay, so this will be my last question


so - you're saying that Your Odds Line will be significantly different than the odds line of the public fairly often________?

and that is based on looking at the win, place, show and exacta pools_____?

so, you're saying that the public will fairly often have a horse at 4/1 whereas Your Odds Line has the horse at 2/1_________?

also, because of the late great bettors what you see in those pools can fairly often be way off from what the final pool %s are after no more bets are allowed

because of the late great whales and the CRW teams

even if some of the late betting has been restricted this would still require some mind boggling calculations that need to be made very, very quickly



.

if the takeout is 18% and the longshot lovers cause the disadvantage on the 1st and 2nd choice to be only 10% - proportionate betting cannot cause a positive expectation in the long run

a positive expectation in the long run can only happen if your odds line is significantly more accurate than the public's odds line


.

[formula_2002]

__________


okay, so this will be my last question
I have no problem with your questions

so - you're saying that Your Odds Line will be significantly different than the odds line of the public fairly often___yes_____?

and that is based on looking at the win, place, show and exacta pools_yes____?

so, you're saying that the public will fairly often have a horse at 4/1 whereas Your Odds Line has the horse at 2/1_________?
example
Aqu r1 public win% on the fav was 34% probability (that's a true probability)
I had it as a win probability 64%

also, because of the late great bettors what you see in those pools can fairly often be way off from what the final pool %s are after no more bets are allowed
most of the study is based on final wps and ex pool dollar totals.



because of the late great whales and the CRW teams

even if some of the late betting has been restricted this would still require some mind boggling calculations that need to be made very, very quickly
easily done
once the data is downloaded (30 seconds for me), which can be done in less than 1 second. with the proper program.

then 5 seconds for the calculations (which can be improved on with the proper program)
perhaps someday I'll invite people to a demonstration in real time.
finaly, with a proper program (something like my old "betitandforget") bets can be place to an ADW in seconds.

[davew]

formula, what good is doing all of the record keeping and 'after race analysis' if you can not get the data you need before the race so you can place a bet?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

_____________


really great (IMO) archived blog from Barry Meadow re Tim Haley

much of his big buckeroonis came from rebates

not part of any team, in 2002 he pushed thru more than $24 mill

had only a 0.95% R.O.I. against the takeout

amazing - to me, anyway - if it hadn't come from Barry I don't think I would have believed it


.
https://horseracinggold.com/Horse-Ra...-Article-2.htm


.

Good article, thanks for posting.