Klein Speed Points

[jeebus1083]

I created a calculator to generate the Klein Speed Points as described in Steve Klein's book. However, I do have some questions that may force me to make some changes to the calculator:

1) How does one rate turf races? I know that if a horse ran on turf, but is now on dirt, there is an adjustment made. Is there an adjustment if a horse ran on dirt previously, but is now trying turf for the 1st time?

2) Races on synthetic surfaces. If a horse was running on dirt, yet now is running on a synthetic track, or vice-versa, or going turf to synthetic or vice-versa, what are those adjustments, if any?

[46zilzal]

he borrowed these from Dr. Quirin??

Don' worry about turf contests as the race is all in the final two fractions 9 times out of 10.

[jeebus1083]

He decided that he could do better than Quirin. Field size and extra credit for lengths led, as well as penalties for lengths behind are a cornerstone in his methodology. No "all or nothing" cutoff points either. Lower is better.

[Dan H]

This excerpt from his web-site suggests he's improved on the formula in the book.

The cool thing is that once I finished writing the book I was able to find the time to experiment with variations on the original Klein Speed Points formula. The one in the book is version 1.0. Since then I have made it even better by moving through two subsequent generations of significant improvements. The Klein Speed Points version 3.0 used on powerofearlyspeed.com is the best one I have.

https://www.powerofearlyspeed.com/

[ranchwest]

Here's more of what the website says:

Don’t bother asking me about the details of the improvements because the formula is strictly proprietary. The formula will not be offered for sale, nor will it be discussed in any detail. Just know that it is superior to the one offered in the book, and to anything else I have seen or heard of.

[cj]

It would have to be improved. The first method from the book was really poor.

[Handiman]

CJ...that is an understatement of a major magnitude. I ran many races using the klein points and it showed miserable results. I hope he has developed better....Hard to think he could have made them worse.

Handi

[Tom]

When you think about it, it is pretty shady. He sells you a whole book about his method, then changes it and sell you the numbers. I can tell you from my brief experience buying them, they are not worth the time it takes to download them I now look at Klein as just another salesman.
My advice - do not buy.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tom

When you think about it, it is pretty shady. He sells you a whole book about his method, then changes it and sell you the numbers. I can tell you from my brief experience buying them, they are not worth the time it takes to download them I now look at Klein as just another salesman.
My advice - do not buy.

on another note, today is opening day!

[jeebus1083]

I did notice that Klein had a website, selling his figures. In my opinion, if he's going to sell a "proprietary" set of speed points, then his DRF book should be pulled off the shelves.

At least when Andy Beyer tinkered with his speed figure methodology, he laid out his changes for all to see. No kept secrets.

[Tom]

Andy has integrity.

[jeebus1083]

Originally Posted by cj

It would have to be improved. The first method from the book was really poor.

I do agree with Klein on the premise of accounting for field size. It's much easier to wing it loose on the lead in a small field, than in a large field. To me, that's an improvement over Quirin.

The most confusing part of the equation is factoring in profitability. The charts (now outdated of course) in his book lay out factors where early speed is either profitable or unprofitable, and what situations that bettors should avoid.

The largest flaw of speed points - Quirin or Klein - is judging intent. Speed points are good when horses consistently run a set style. When horses get "played with" (trainers trying to figure out the best tactics for a race), it renders figures as poor and unreliable.

Of course, everything we use in handicapping is BEFORE the race. Much like meteorologists who use computer models to predict the onset of good or bad weather, we use figures, numbers, points, form, class, race shape, human factors, distance, surface, key races, and workouts to model the way today's race will be run. The only differences between us and the weatherman are 1) he's correct at least 80-90% of the time, and 2) he's going to make money whether or not he's correct or incorrect; if we are wrong, we're not going to make money.

[jeebus1083]

Originally Posted by Tom

Andy has integrity.

Whether one loves Andy Beyer or not, or whether people agree or disagree with his and his associates' projections, he does have integrity. There is nothing hidden about how to calculate his speed figures. It's all in his books. Not too long ago, he wrote an article in DRF explaining how he was changing the figures for synthetic races, and how he was going about it. Although his explanation was vague in areas, he doesn't really teach the mechanics behind his work much anymore since DRF publishes them anyway. His collection (Picking Winners, $50k Year at the Races, Winning Horseplayer) are painstaking in detail about figuremaking. Beyer on Speed (and Speed to Spare by Cardello) are about the effects of figures on horses.

Andy is a good sport, and in many ways, is good for the sport.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jeebus1083

The most confusing part of the equation is factoring in profitability. The charts (now outdated of course) in his book lay out factors where early speed is either profitable or unprofitable, and what situations that bettors should avoid.

This is the very worst part of the book, and that is saying something. Showing profitably of a factor that occurs AFTER the gate has opened is totally useless. It does no good to know betting the leader after 1/4 mile is going to show a flat bet profit. Why? Because most of the profit comes from horses that would rarely be identified as likely early leaders.

The only tests that matter are those that relate to things that can be judged before the race begins. Anything else is worthless, and even worse, misleading. He showed no tests whatsoever of how his top speed point horse BEFORE THE RACE did in any situation. In the end, that is all that matters. Do they actually point out leaders? Do they show a profit? The answer is obvious. If they had value, it would have been in the book.

[46zilzal]

Aren't speed points given out for POSITIONAL status?

two horses sprint, one against 22.4 46.3 and is on the lead

another goes out to lead in 22.1 45.2

How can these be considered the worth the same recognition?

Confused