TUP 03-30-10 Race-3

[Partsnut]

TUP 03-30-10 Race-3

Here's a fairly straight forward route at 8 F.
I used Synergism 4 for my selection.

I believe this race will come down to the (2) Swingin Storm and the (6) Broken Habit. Being as this track has an early bias I would favor the (2).
The biggest question being, will the (2) will be worth a bet.
Please see the read-outs for this race below.
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A race can be posted before the fact and one can just as easily learn from it.
I'm not afraid of being wrong. I have nothing to sell anyone.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm not sure what I'm looking at in those screenshots, but I'd be interested to see/learn how #7 San Clemente Blue figures into the equation in the context of the race using that system.

[Partsnut]

johnhannibalsmith:

I'm not sure what I'm looking at in those screenshots, but I'd be interested to see/learn how #7 San Clemente Blue figures into the equation in the context of the race using that system.

I did not include that horse in my contender selection because to me, and in my opinion, this horse does not figure. I could be wrong. Possibly you see or know something that is not obvious to me.

[46zilzal]

6 Broken Habit and 7 San Clemente Blue will head out first

then the rail horse Sonata state move make a middle to late move
and very very late will come the Our Kirsty

The has contested paces much slower than the rest here, but for the price I would look elsewhere but keep it in an exotic.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

johnhannibalsmith:


I did not include that horse in my contender selection because to me, and in my opinion, this horse does not figure. I could be wrong. Possibly you see or know something that is not obvious to me.

She's not a standout.

What she is a decent old mare that gets into the race on the N1y (actually since December) condition as opposed to the n4L condition that most of the contenders are in on. Her last win was a N1y condition earlier in the meet and she was freshened shortly thereafter.

This was once a pretty nice cheap mare. She's not quite the same as she once was, but she has had two sprints off the short break and her last is tons better than it appears in the form. She was buried in traffic at the fence between the five-sixteenths and three-sixteenths before swinging out near the eighth and being a bit outfinished late.

She prefers a route - she has useful tactical speed, able to pick a spot to run from - and in the context of this race, this seems like spot/scenario in which she is MOST likely to run a top effort, assuming that her top effort resembles her top efforts of previous stages in her career.

I can't build a convincing case that she deserves a massive win play or significant investment, but she's on my pick four ticket and had I played other exotics, I'd feel obligated to use her.

[Partsnut]

Tim and John,

You are both versed handicappers and I thank you for participating in this race and making it more interesting. Constructive opinions such as yours add lots to this thread.

Bill

[maiom01]

The 1 Sonata ST looks to in good form..A 3 for 51 runner. Stretching back out today..Currently 8-1 and the value bet imo to wp..

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

6 Broken Habit and 7 San Clemente Blue will head out first

then the rail horse Sonata state move make a middle to late move
and very very late will come the Our Kirsty

The has contested paces much slower than the rest here, but for the price I would look elsewhere but keep it in an exotic.

1/2/3/6

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maiom01

The 1 Sonata ST looks to in good form..A 3 for 51 runner. Stretching back out today..Currently 8-1 and the value bet imo to wp..

Good call... clearly wants to run long and has to move out of Statebred company to get the distance. Didn't think she was quite good enough to step up and face better despite the distance change...

Meanwhile... I am officially cured of San Clemente Blue. She's done.

[46zilzal]

How about the turfer next?

stands out with following

[Partsnut]

Nice pick: maiom01

[johnhannibalsmith]

I love Tony The Pony (#5), but he's very tough to take at a short price in this field. He's benefitted from beating some of the worst $6,250 turf horses around since plummeting to this level over the last year or so.

Unfortunately, the next most viable contender appears to be Lainies Lion, who may end up being an even shorter price. This one was entered as part of the turf distance series and scratched, now that he's in for $6,250, it's pretty clear that he wasn't scratched because they didn't want to lose him for the $7,500.

I'd probably have to take a wild swing in this field and ignore Robertino's pair with back class and instead try for #3 Unbroken Vow. His back turf races fit here, he may be able to set closer to the pace than it appears at first, and this horse is eligible for a funny condition that they write in AZ - non winners of two in two years - and yet, Kelly Bainum goes for an open turf race. She can read a condition book, so I'm grasping at straws at trying to make a circumstantial case here.

Of course, Dennis Collins is not one of my preferred turf riders, but...

[maiom01]

Not betting..But if I had...1-5 exacta COLD>>

[maiom01]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I'd probably have to take a wild swing in this field and ignore Robertino's pair with back class and instead try for #3 Unbroken Vow.

Nice one JOHN...18-1

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

How about the turfer next?

stands out with following

results close