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Old 10-10-2009, 11:40 AM   #31
Light
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Mark

Your info about PP is one of the reasons I said in the other threads that A) TLG's picks suck and B) a black box can do what he does and better without all the analysis,time and effort.

The top rated PP did as well as TLG in my last study of 282 races from Aqu Innner. Invested $564,returned $522. Loss of $42 for a -7% ROI. The same as TLG had at Saratoga with all his headbutting with Crist,Beyer and Donovan.

Furthermore,there are other black boxes that can do better. PP had the poorest ROI of the black boxes I checked. For example,after selecting a suitable paceline for a horse, and betting the top Bris speed rating in a race from that Aqu inner study, returned $596, a +5% roi. The best was almost +11% playing the top Sartinized horse.

That study is obviously a bit too small in its sample to be written in stone, but you can get my point. ANYONE CAN BEAT TLG.

GO CMOORE. (Whobet impersonation not paid for)
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Old 10-10-2009, 11:56 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
That study is obviously a bit too small in its sample to be written in stone, but you can get my point. ANYONE CAN BEAT TLG.
As I said in my prior post, I'd like this thread to remain free of clutter, especially your nonsensical clutter.

A) you're going to base another conclusion on three days of data? This kind of thinking makes your other Saratoga "conclusion" even LESS reliable under that kind of "Light"

B) you're still too chicken to take me up on my offer, as everyone can see

C) your PROXY cmoore, whom I believe you called one of the best around the Internet...well, I don't need to tell you...just look at the numbers after three days.

The fact that you have the balls to jump in here after three days of CMOORE sucking even more than TLG is amazing.

Don't bother to respond. It will be deleted, as I've already said, no clutter.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 10-10-2009 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 10-10-2009, 12:01 PM   #33
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Light:

Didn't realize you had done all that. I don't handicap or play NY tracks because my ADW doesn't carry them but I have no trouble beating the Bris PP number at the tracks I do play (if you can't, you might as well give up playing altogether). I just thought it would be a little fun to bring in a comparison to an aged and flawed black box.

But I'll drop it now. Also, our Administrator doesn't want "clutter" here, apparently not realizing that the commentary is 99.99% of the fun of this otherwise dismal exercise.
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Old 10-10-2009, 12:08 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgoldie
But I'll drop it now. Also, our Administrator doesn't want "clutter" here, apparently not realizing that the commentary is 99.99% of the fun of this otherwise dismal exercise.
I'd say between the two earlier threads Light started about TLG, we're just about plum out of all interesting commentary on the subject. Here, I'm looking for facts.
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Old 10-10-2009, 01:15 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgoldie
Light:

D I have no trouble beating the Bris PP number at the tracks I do play (if you can't, you might as well give up playing altogether). I just thought it would be a little fun to bring in a comparison to an aged and flawed black box.
I'm confused: YOU (and Light) apparently have no problem beating a +6% or so ROI. YET, there are so many other threads here where breaking even or losing 5% or so (and then getting rebates) is deemed an admirable accomplishment. What gives?
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Old 10-10-2009, 01:39 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I'm confused: YOU (and Light) apparently have no problem beating a +6% or so ROI. YET, there are so many other threads here where breaking even or losing 5% or so (and then getting rebates) is deemed an admirable accomplishment. What gives?
What part of keeping it free of clutter didn't you get?

Start a new thread if you want to get into your own pissing contest.
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Old 10-10-2009, 09:29 PM   #37
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Day 4 Results:

TLG | 1 for 10 | $4.30 | -$15.70
1) First $4.30
2) Fifth
3) Second
4) Second
5) Fifth
6) Ninth
7) Ninth
8) Fourth
9) Second
10) Third
TLG Totals | 5 for 37 | 14% | $74 Bet | $32.30 Return | -$41.70 Profit | -56% ROI

--------------------------------------

CMOORE | 3 for 10 | $28.80 | +$8.80
1) First $4.30 -- Cold $24.80 exacta
2) Second
3) First $4.50
4) Fourth
5) Fifth
6) First $20
7) Fifth
8) Third
9) Fourth
10) Seventh
CMOORE Totals | 6 for 37 | 16% | $74 Bet | $46.30 Return | -$27.70 Profit | -37% ROI

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 10-10-2009 at 10:30 PM.
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Old 10-10-2009, 09:32 PM   #38
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BTW, how are we handling entries? I see that CMOORE has sometimes listed / as a pick, and other times, like today, he only listed .

Now, today, the won the race where he only listed as the pick.
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Old 10-10-2009, 10:03 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
BTW, how are we handling entries? I see that CMOORE has sometimes listed / as a pick, and other times, like today, he only listed .

Now, today, the won the race where he only listed as the pick.
They should count imo. As long as the one specified did run. I did list Raceland as my pick in the pick thread..They both ran and the 1A wins. Shit happens. It still counts as a win in the parimutuel pool.

Last edited by cmoore; 10-10-2009 at 10:06 PM.
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Old 10-10-2009, 10:11 PM   #40
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I always credited TLG with both halves of the entry even if he just picked one of them because that's the way it is in real life.

However if he only stated one particular horse,and that horse was scratched then I did not give him the other half. I assumed he didn't like it. But in CMOORE's case,both entries ran,so in reality, he would have bet the horse and still got paid.
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Old 10-10-2009, 10:27 PM   #41
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OK. If you pick just one half and it scratches, you don't get the other half. If you pick one half and the other half wins, you get credit (doesn't really reflect much on handicapping ability, which is what this is supposed to be about...but whatever...)
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Old 10-11-2009, 05:36 AM   #42
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Belmont

Sunday, Oct. 11th

1).. - -
2).. - -
3).. - -
4).. - -
5).. - -
6).. - -
7).. - -
8).. - -
9).. - -
10).. - -
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Old 10-11-2009, 11:05 AM   #43
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TLG's picks are up:

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml
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Old 10-11-2009, 07:59 PM   #44
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Day 5 Results:

TLG | 0 for 10 | $0 | -$20
1) Second
2) Second
3) Sixth
4) Third
5) Third
6) Fourth
7) Sixth
8) Ninth
9) Fourth
10) Tenth
TLG Totals | 5 for 47 | 11% | $94 Bet | $32.30 Return | -$61.70 Profit | -66% ROI

--------------------------------------

CMOORE | 2 for 10 | $19.00 | -$1.00
1) Fifth
2) Sixth
3) Second
4) First $3.60
5) Eighth
6) First $15.40
7) Second
8) Eighth
9) Fourth
10) Eighth
CMOORE Totals | 8 for 47 | 17% | $94 Bet | $65.30 Return | -$28.70 Profit | -31% ROI
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Old 10-12-2009, 02:39 AM   #45
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Belmont

Monday, Oct. 12th

1)..--
2)..--
3)..--
4)..--
5)..--
6)..--
7)..--
8)..--
9)..--
10)..--
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