Saturday Long Shots

[Aner]

Picks for 3/28/15

Aqu 2-----#2 Scorpion's Touch------------------XXXX, 3.80
Aqu 5-----#8 Life's a Roar-----------------------XXXX, 15.00
Aqu 6-----#7 Ulations
Aqu 7-----#5 Back Forty
Aqu 9-----#11 Keltic Fighter

Tam 4-----#3 Exchanging Glances
Tam 6-----#6 Canna Red-----------------------20.20, 8.00
Tam 10----#10 Where's That Cat

GP 1------#4 Hard Enough
GP 1------#5 Interpol---------------------------13.80, 6.60
GP 3------#8 Diamond Eye---------------------scratched
GP 7------#9 Strike Em Down------------------scratched
GP 8------#3 Brothersofthetime
GP 10-----#6 Baffle Me

FG 1------#10 Even Street
FG 4------#7 Safari Clamari
FG 6------#7 Brilliant Interest
FG 7------#6 Bluffalatta
FG 9------#5 Danette
FG 13-----#12 Fort Wagner

OP 3------#3 Sconnie Nation
OP 4------#5 Golden Moon
OP 5------#1 Right Squall
OP 8------#3 Dynamacho------------------------XXXX, 10.80
OP 9------#1 Wolf City
OP 10-----#3 Everything Bling

SA 6------#6 Kill Shot

For the day:

win = 2/25
bet = $50
back= $34
loss = $16---------for the year =($126.60 gain)

place = 5/25
bet = $50
back = $43.20
loss = $6.80-----------for the year =($67.80 loss)

[Aner]

First Quarter Review of Saturday Long Ones

# of win bets = 305
# win bets cashed = 23
hit rate = 7.5 %

$ win bet = $610
$ win back = $736.60
$ net = plus $126.60
% profit = 20.7%

# of place bets = 305
# place bets cashed = 40
hit rate = 13.1%

$ place bet = $610
$ place back = $542.20
$ net = minus $67.80
% loss = (11.1%)

[ReplayRandall]

Out of 23 winners, 11 of them were 15-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
-------
Total- $511.00
So, 47% of your total winners produced 69% of your payback.
It appears you might have a profitable selection method, so far.
My suggestion to you would be to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 15-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck..

[Aner]

Nice suggestion. Think I'll try it. In the meantime, I'll continue to post picks based on the morning line. My goal is to show a profit at the end of the year.

[Aner]

Picks for 4/4/15

Aqu 1-----#3 Little Rocco
Aqu 2-----#5 Sol the Freud
Aqu 4-----#8 Winter Games
Aqu 5-----#7 Gym Too
Aqu 6-----#9 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 12----#10 Frazil

GP 1------#3 Thunderinwillie
GP 3------#7 Moonlight Time
GP 6------#4 Cassidys Valentine
GP 11-----#11 Ault

Tam 1-----#5 Tazz Time
Tam 4-----#1 Beach Master
Tam 11----#9 Kentonia

Kee 3-----#5 Kings Knight
Kee 4-----#2 Sky Blazer
Kee 8-----#4 Something Extra

OP 3------#3 Prairie Gold
OP 4------#7 Diamond of Blue
OP 6------#2 Doctor Peter
OP 7------#7 Wishful Dreamin
OP 8------#3 Rallydownthealley

SA 2------#8 Canadian Exchange
SA 3------#2 Pay the Fine
SA 4------#8 Madam Aamoura
SA 9------#3 Miss Boom Boom
SA 10-----#12 Princess Bertrando

[Aner]

Picks for 4/4/15

Aqu 1-----#3 Little Rocco
Aqu 2-----#5 Sol the Freud-----------------scratched
Aqu 4-----#8 Winter Games
Aqu 5-----#7 Gym Too
Aqu 6-----#9 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 12----#10 Frazil

GP 1------#3 Thunderinwillie
GP 3------#7 Moonlight Time
GP 6------#4 Cassidys Valentine--------------XXXX, 6.20
GP 11-----#11 Ault

Tam 1-----#5 Tazz Time
Tam 4-----#1 Beach Master
Tam 11----#9 Kentonia-----------------------XXXX, 5.40

Kee 3-----#5 Kings Knight
Kee 4-----#2 Sky Blazer
Kee 8-----#4 Something Extra--------------18.40, 8.40

OP 3------#3 Prairie Gold
OP 4------#7 Diamond of Blue
OP 6------#2 Doctor Peter-------------------13.60, 5.40
OP 7------#7 Wishful Dreamin
OP 8------#3 Rallydownthealley

SA 2------#8 Canadian Exchange
SA 3------#2 Pay the Fine
SA 4------#8 Madam Aamoura---------------XXXX, 14.00
SA 9------#3 Miss Boom Boom
SA 10-----#12 Princess Bertrando

For the day:

win = 2/25
bet = $50
back= $32
loss = $18---------for the year =($108.60 gain)

place = 5/25
bet = $50
back = $39.40
loss = $10.60-----------for the year =($78.40 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 4/11/15

Aqu 4-----#8 Ackerman Road
Aqu 6-----#8 Taxplayer
Aqu 7-----#5 Pete's Fleet
Aqu 9-----#5 Livi On Love

GP 3------#6 Party Till Dawn
GP 4------#6 Gamble
GP 5------#5 Shogun Samurai
GP 6------#9 Prince Raja
GP 8------#9 Demand
GP 9------#1 Over and Back
GP 10-----#6 Cat n Fiddle

Tam 5-----#3 Sin Banderas
Tam 9-----#2 Spin Wild

WO 4------#3 Vinolicious
WO 5------#6 Lookingforanewhome
WO 7------#5 Bug's Girl

Kee 3-----#5 King of Broadway
Kee 7-----#7 Believe in Charlie

OP 1------#7 Indian Companion
OP 5------#1 Zipzapzapper
OP 6------#6 Sheikinator
OP 8------#1 Calypso Run

SA 2------#7 Maxx the Giant
SA 7------#11 Aquacita
SA 9------#6 Keegers

[Aner]

Picks for 4/11/15

Aqu 4-----#8 Ackerman Road
Aqu 6-----#8 Taxplayer----------------------scratched
Aqu 7-----#5 Pete's Fleet--------------------XXXX, 9.10
Aqu 9-----#5 Livi On Love

GP 3------#6 Party Till Dawn----------------XXXX, 6.60
GP 4------#6 Gamble
GP 5------#5 Shogun Samurai--------------XXXX, 10.80
GP 6------#9 Prince Raja
GP 8------#9 Demand
GP 9------#1 Over and Back
GP 10-----#6 Cat n Fiddle

Tam 5-----#3 Sin Banderas
Tam 9-----#2 Spin Wild

WO 4------#3 Vinolicious
WO 5------#6 Lookingforanewhome
WO 7------#5 Bug's Girl

Kee 3-----#5 King of Broadway
Kee 7-----#7 Believe in Charlie---------------scratched

OP 1------#7 Indian Companion
OP 5------#1 Zipzapzapper--------------------XXXX, 8.60
OP 6------#6 Sheikinator
OP 8------#1 Calypso Run

SA 2------#7 Maxx the Giant
SA 7------#11 Aquacita
SA 9------#6 Keegers

For the day:

win = 0/23
bet = $46
back= $0
loss = $46---------for the year =($62.60 gain)

place = 4/23
bet = $46
back = $35.10
loss = $10.90-----------for the year =($89.30 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 4/18/15

Pim 2-----#5 High Wire Act
Pim 3-----#5 Star Black
Pim 5-----#13 Salty Contender
Pim 10----#14 North Star Bot

Tam 1-----#1 H B Warrior
Tam 7-----#7 Just Jebicab
Tam 9-----#7 Motor City

GP 1------#3 Our Liberty Bay
GP 3------#4 Crown Ready
GP 5------#3 Vigas
GP 7------#11 Indefinable Humor
GP 9------#11 Standard Deal
GP 10-----#5 Lay It Down

Kee 2-----#5 Strong Resolve
Kee 8-----#1 Barefoot Children
Kee 10----#10 Tahoe Warrior

LS 1------#10 Take It and Fly
LS 4------#8 Cool Hnad Butte
LS 6------#5 Hannah's Journey
LS 9------#6 Aranuba
LS 9------#12 Mamawasapistol

[Aner]

Picks for 4/18/15

Pim 2-----#5 High Wire Act
Pim 3-----#5 Star Black
Pim 5-----#13 Salty Contender
Pim 10----#14 North Star Bot

Tam 1-----#1 H B Warrior-----------------92.40, 30.80
Tam 7-----#7 Just Jebicab
Tam 9-----#7 Motor City

GP 1------#3 Our Liberty Bay
GP 3------#4 Crown Ready----------------XXXX, 5.20
GP 5------#3 Vigas
GP 7------#11 Indefinable Humor
GP 9------#11 Standard Deal
GP 10-----#5 Lay It Down-----------------XXXX, 4.40


Kee 2-----#5 Strong Resolve
Kee 8-----#1 Barefoot Children
Kee 10----#10 Tahoe Warrior

LS 1------#10 Take It and Fly
LS 4------#8 Cool Hnad Butte--------------cancelled
LS 6------#5 Hannah's Journey------------cancelled
LS 9------#6 Aranuba-----------------------cancelled
LS 9------#12 Mamawasapistol------------cancelled

For the day:

win = 1/17
bet = $34
back= $92.40
gain= $58.40---------for the year =($121.00 gain)

place = 3/17
bet = $34
back = $40.40
gain = $6.40-----------for the year =($82.90 loss)

[pandy]

That $92 winner at Tampa had a longshot factor that I included in my Pace Handicapping Longshots book, a switch to an apprentice rider, which result in a 7 lb weight advantage over most of the horses in the race. But even more significant and unusual was the fact that the jockey that had been riding this horse was also the trainer. The horse was coming off his career worse speed figure, but his career best pace figures.

[Aner]

Picks for 4/25/15

Aqu 2-----#1 Always Sarah
Aqu 4-----#9 Horatio
Aqu 5-----#6 Raffies Bay
Aqu 7-----#8 Majestic Raffy

Pim 5-----#6 Irunalatte
Pim 9-----#5 Breezy Girl

GP 3------#6 Galardonado
GP 5------#3 Gossip Column
GP 8------#6 Milton T
GP 10-----#11 Surtsey
GP 11-----#6 Rocky Gap

Tam 1-----#7 Militsa
Tam 2-----#8 Lotta Irish
Tam 3-----#1 Standing Appeal
Tam 5-----#6 Diamond Heat
Tam 9-----#3 Kept the Faith

GG 5------#6 Heaveneleven
GG 9------#3 Hear the Ghost

SA 5------#2 Rare Punch
SA 8------#6 Si Sage

EvD 2-----#1 Officer Dixie
EvD 3-----#12 Bullseye Hayes
EvD 5-----#5 Cassiengracie
EvD 6-----#11 Adieu My Friend
EvD 8-----#9 My Pal Beanie

[Aner]

Picks for 4/25/15

Aqu 2-----#1 Always Sarah
Aqu 4-----#9 Horatio
Aqu 5-----#6 Raffies Bay
Aqu 7-----#8 Majestic Raffy

Pim 5-----#6 Irunalatte
Pim 9-----#5 Breezy Girl

GP 3------#6 Galardonado----------------XXXX, 4.20
GP 5------#3 Gossip Column
GP 8------#6 Milton T
GP 10-----#11 Surtsey
GP 11-----#6 Rocky Gap-----------------XXXX, 9.60

Tam 1-----#7 Militsa
Tam 2-----#8 Lotta Irish
Tam 3-----#1 Standing Appeal
Tam 5-----#6 Diamond Heat---------------scratched
Tam 9-----#3 Kept the Faith

GG 5------#6 Heaveneleven
GG 9------#3 Hear the Ghost--------------scratched

SA 5------#2 Rare Punch
SA 8------#6 Si Sage----------------------87.60, 26.00

EvD 2-----#1 Officer Dixie
EvD 3-----#12 Bullseye Hayes
EvD 5-----#5 Cassiengracie
EvD 6-----#11 Adieu My Friend
EvD 8-----#9 My Pal Beanie


For the day:

win = 1/23
bet = $46
back= $87.60
gain= $41.60---------for the year =($162.60 gain)

place = 3/23
bet = $46
back = $39.80
loss= $6.20-----------for the year =($89.10 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 5/2/15

Bel 3-----#6 Cousin Michel
Bel 7-----#4 You Tarzan
Bel 9-----#9 Royal Posse
Bel 10----#8 Sky Blazer

Pim 3-----#6 Nightcut
Pim 4-----#2 High Wire Act
Pim 7-----#4 My Guardian Angel
Pim 9-----#1 Foolish Tiger


CD 4------#2 Mordi's Miracle
CD 5------#3 The Truth or Else
CD 7------#5 You Bought Her
CD 8------#3 Tepin
CD 9------#6 Gentlemen's Bet
CD 10-----#1 Optimizer
CD 11-----#15 Frosted
CD 13-----#1 Hey Bro

GG 2------#6 Lucy in Diamonds
GG 3------#1 Sharp Hooq
GG 5------#2 Changing Game
GG 7------#8 Anytime Magic
GG 9------#1 Summer Story

SA 4------#5 Catalina Bonita
SA 6------#4 Cinematic Cat
SA 7------#8 Badasmywifeletsmeb

[Aner]

Picks for 5/2/15

Bel 3-----#6 Cousin Michel
Bel 7-----#4 You Tarzan
Bel 9-----#9 Royal Posse
Bel 10----#8 Sky Blazer

Pim 3-----#6 Nightcut
Pim 4-----#2 High Wire Act-----------------17.40, 8.20
Pim 7-----#4 My Guardian Angel
Pim 9-----#1 Foolish Tiger


CD 4------#2 Mordi's Miracle
CD 5------#3 The Truth or Else
CD 7------#5 You Bought Her
CD 8------#3 Tepin--------------------------20.20, 8.20
CD 9------#6 Gentlemen's Bet
CD 10-----#1 Optimizer
CD 11-----#15 Frosted
CD 13-----#1 Hey Bro

GG 2------#6 Lucy in Diamonds
GG 3------#1 Sharp Hooq
GG 5------#2 Changing Game
GG 7------#8 Anytime Magic
GG 9------#1 Summer Story

SA 4------#5 Catalina Bonita
SA 6------#4 Cinematic Cat
SA 7------#8 Badasmywifeletsmeb

For the day:

win = 2/24
bet = $48
back= $37.60
loss= $10.40---------for the year =($152.20 gain)

place = 2/24
bet = $48
back = $16.40
loss= $31.60-----------for the year =($120.70 loss)