Turf Paradise Rehab

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

Race 4

The fav here, the 5, may....I repeat may, face a fair bit of pace pressure. The 7 is going...and the 2,3 and 4 all do their best running close to the pace.

Going to hope the jocks all gun it...."best" bet of the day #6 Quinnette to sit off a pace duel and run by them all late

The fave - Lady Jila - is, in my opinion, always at the mercy of the race flow. She is in no way versatile. She likes an outside draw where she can track the pace or be in attendance and then cruise to the lead and get a big heart with the rider doing very, very little riding. The more pressure she gets, be it pace pressure, traffic pressure, or rider pressure, the more she reveals the reality that she's about a $3200 mare that can just run huge when she has it her own way.

Like you, I see a potential problem on all fronts for her - though Stevens did ride her to perfection last time and fits her well. The outside mare should make it hard for Lady Jila to cruise to the lead willingly and there are a couple of other that could harrass her into submission through the first half.

I'm just eliminating her on principle - along with a couple of others that I just don't like or can't truly evaluate (like the Portland shipper) - and thinking this may be a place for a simple exacta box using the remnants of the process of elimination.

$5 exacta box , ,

A bit of a careless swing against a couple that have every right to crack the top two - like Maria Lake in particular - but just looking at current exacta will pays and the prospects of doubling a ticket size in a race where I'm not really supporting anyone in particular but rather standing against one specifically - I think I have to go that way.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

Race 4

The fav here, the 5, may....I repeat may, face a fair bit of pace pressure. The 7 is going...and the 2,3 and 4 all do their best running close to the pace.

Going to hope the jocks all gun it...."best" bet of the day #6 Quinnette to sit off a pace duel and run by them all late

Well, that did not go to plan....off to the store, back in time for the final few races....good luck!

[johnhannibalsmith]

All Scott Stevens there... just another perfect ride on her... damn, thought Nate Smith was going to put him in a jackpot at the half and stomp the gas to the outside, leave her in a spot she didn't want to be in leaving the turn, and everything would go swimmingly...

Just an example of a rider that fits one perfectly and it happens to be a guy that doesn't make too many mistakes when he's down and on fire... Seems like that hack brother of his must be applying some sibling rivalry the way those two have been going...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maclr11

...

$0.50 Pick 4
2,3,6/2,3/1,2,7/1,2,4,5,6
$45

Bingo'd that one and it came back awfully swell at $95 beans considering you had a joke of a race in leg one, a Chambers crusher, and the logical fave in the last leg... guessing that Flyin' Lion made that whole ticket...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maclr11

...
$.50 Pick 5
1,2,3,7,8/6/2,4,5,6/2,3,8/4,7
$60

I tried to come with a ticket to play along... trying to stay with the same ticket size, price range... and found myself building a pretty similar ticket structure-wise... until I got to the last bunch of puke ass maidens... wow... I wish I could go two deep there and feel good, but I struggled to even toss out likely 50-1 shot Seaside Friends this was such a disaster.

On top of that, I willingly and knowingly dismissed a few logical ones, likely favorites like current leg one heavy fave Anne Seven Cats right off the bat, opting for alternatives with the greed that comes with my pick five plays.

I'll post what I came up with... but I doubt even I could play it in reality... the ticket price is too much for the lack of coverage in a few spots and it really depends entirely on a few hefty doses of chaos.

2,3,5,7 - 6 - 2,5,6,7 - 3,4,7 - 3,4,6,7,10 = $120

[HuggingTheRail]

Back in time for the 6th - not sure if that's a good thing or not....

I'll cheer for your 6 which you've both keyed....but I do like the 4 here. I think the switch to Hamel may help keep this one a little bit closer early??

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

Back in time for the 6th - not sure if that's a good thing or not....

I'll cheer for your 6 which you've both keyed....but I do like the 4 here. I think the switch to Hamel may help keep this one a little bit closer early??

Fairly dead on the board. Have a feeling this one isn't one of the good ones and this is a bad single.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Fairly dead on the board. Have a feeling this one isn't one of the good ones and this is a bad single.

Yep. If he couldn't manhandle that group... I'm not always too keen on guidance from the tote board, but when this one barely held favoritism over the 1 and 4 right up until the last few minutes, I had my doubts that he was quite the sure-shot Silva shipper that he looked to be... maybe the awful effort by Blast 'Em should have made me take a second look as well... ah, good for team Canada!

[HuggingTheRail]

Race 7

Not sure what do make of the 8 here. Likely the best horse in the race, but not sure I like the missed race on Jan 23. That said, she has had several decent works at Bhp since early Jan, and appears ready.

As they step on the track for post parade, she is co fav at 9-5 with the 6

The tote staying the way it is....I will go with the 2 at 7-2. Led them a long way last time, and on paper, there is not a ton of pace in this race. If the 8 is vulnerable, the 2 could drop off the 8 at the quarter pole, and have a big enough margin to hold off the late brigade.

Tri time....

2 // 6,8 // 4,5,6,7,8

[johnhannibalsmith]

Obviously rehab is going poorly this week, and I need to work through this doldrum yet again... been a lousy two weeks in general...

So, this Darley thing is taking all the money yet again and hey, maybe she improves this time around, but I don't really get it especially now that we've seen her here.

I'm a little gun shy about who I like most of those that I think realistically have a chance to burn that chalk. I like the a bit, the just needs things to go her way to run a big one for once, the is ultra-logical as an alternative, and yet I really kind of like 12-1 Kochen Beki (Cock in Becky?, huh?)...

I don't know what to do, so I'll take the better prices and use them in exacta keys for a few beans:

$2 exacta box 5,7 with 2,5,6,7 = $24 and just root against this 7-5 shot altogether there.

Just for fun, the ole' superduper seems viable in this one:

.20 cent 2,5,6,7 - 2,5,6,7,8 - 2,5,6,7,8 - 2,5,6,7,8 = $19.20

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Obviously rehab is going poorly this week, and I need to work through this doldrum yet again... been a lousy two weeks in general...

So, this Darley thing is taking all the money yet again and hey, maybe she improves this time around, but I don't really get it especially now that we've seen her here.

I'm a little gun shy about who I like most of those that I think realistically have a chance to burn that chalk. I like the a bit, the just needs things to go her way to run a big one for once, the is ultra-logical as an alternative, and yet I really kind of like 12-1 Kochen Beki (Cock in Becky?, huh?)...

I don't know what to do, so I'll take the better prices and use them in exacta keys for a few beans:

$2 exacta box 5,7 with 2,5,6,7 = $24 and just root against this 7-5 shot altogether there.

Just for fun, the ole' superduper seems viable in this one:

.20 cent 2,5,6,7 - 2,5,6,7,8 - 2,5,6,7,8 - 2,5,6,7,8 = $19.20

Good call on the super...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Wow, super comes back $342.60... I guess that's where the value was there if I was gonna get serious about tossing the Darley champeeen that ran nowhere at all.

$2 exacta wasn't much - $33.40, but its at least profitable for a change.

.20 super play is good for $68.52, so at least we cracked a meager fifty something dollar profit playing some dinky tickets...

One race at a time... God grant me the serenity to toss the right false favorites, skip the races where they are they are legit, and the wisdom to know the difference now and again... one race at a time... deep breaths...

[HuggingTheRail]

Race 8....looks like trying to do a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle without having the picture on the box cover...

As they are parading with 8 MTP to race 8....I think I will make the 8 my selection here. This gal has been running on average every 2 to 3 weeks since at least August, so would not normally be a pick based on form cycle. However, the last two races have been decent, and in a race full of question marks, this one may be worth a shot at current 7-1 odds

Based on form cycle, quite like the 3. Third race into her form cycle, she could be poised for a big run today. Unusual speed in her last, she couldn't hold one off in the final 1/16th...today's race is 6.5f instead of 6, so will she be a wee short at the end?

The 2 and 4 are taking money. 2 was beaten at 4-5 last time, and the 4 is usually close, but win shy the past two years

tri
8 with 2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4

exa box for kicks 7,8

[johnhannibalsmith]

Well, forget all that praying stuff, there's another race!!!!!

And yeah, it is probably a pass race because Borrego Babe sucks, Lucarelli is still impotent at Turf Paradise even after the half-decade layoff, and okay, Start Time is probably the one to turn to... but 8-5??? Uggghhhh...

$10 W/P Britta

Took a few lumps playing her in the two first trips here this meet, but the turnback to a long sprint from a route sort of interests me considering she's 14-1 at the moment and I really don't care for much of anyone else.

I guess taking a lesson from losing on her good efforts in defeat in the past, I'll hook her up with who I consider the most likely of the trio taking the action and come with:

$5 exacta box 4,7

to go with the W/P bet.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Daniel P. is not making me too proud thus far today. Got ole' Britta cranked up leaving the turn and promptly ran himself right into a wall of traffic and had to wait and swing out for room by the time it was way too late and it looked like she still only got beaten out of second money by a length or so.

Grrrrr....

Better watch the replay before I get too cranky about the poor jock.