Turf Paradise Rehab

[johnhannibalsmith]

Rather than digging up the old thread, I'll start a new one just for the heck of it. My last few days of playing there should have me wealthy enough to pay for a new Obamacare premium, but instead, because of my own stupidity, I can't even come with the cash for the penalty.

So, because I kind of like a couple of horses on today's card and a bit of intrigue with the way the card is sequenced, I'll take this chance to play the fool and post a few plays with some rationale behind it for a few chuckles at my expense.

The first four races are pretty awful - a maiden allowance with a herd that would be life and death to win for maiden five starts it off, so that gets me engaged right off the bat.

In some other thread a few weeks back, I make a little play on a filly that was 30-1 or thereabouts as a second time starter and she ran much improved that day but wilted late and wound up well back at the wire. She's back in today in today's fourth race, is dropping and though she probably shouldn't be the favorite she ought to be a worthy single in the pick four if the ticket can stay small in price and still have ample coverage.

So:

Race 1: .50 Pick 4 - 1,3,4,5 / 2,4,5,6,7 / 2,5,7 / 4 = $30

I wanted to keep it around $20 or $25, but I just couldn't toss a few that I might otherwise as weak as the fields are.

With the #1 and #4 in leg 1 taking all the money, there's too much opportunity to kill a few tickets right off the bat by including a couple that aren't too far off of either one of those two. This is a bad, bad bunch of alleged maiden allowance types, most of whom look like win number two will eventually be attained at the bottom.

Leg two - same thing - an allowance non-three on turf and honestly, the filly that just romped in a $3500 non-two sprinting on dirt interests me as much as most of the others. I actually would have preferred to ALL the race it's such a hodgepodge of counterfeit allowance runners. I grudgingly dismissed two of them, but only out of concern for ROI and not because Ic an't build some sort of case in this context.

Leg three - This non-two of the last six months is actually not a bad bunch and I could do no better trimming than to exclude just three. Initially I was convinced I could leave Tower Inferno out if I had to, but ya know, a nice win last time against easier and proven past ability to run with these just is too much for me to stand against a filly that may be getting back to peak sharpness - especially since she'll be left off a number of tickets.

Leg four - my single is Little Lucky Lake who was dead short in her debut and ran as greenly as a debuter possibly could - trying to bolt on the backside, then passed the field from last on the turn, got tired, lugged in, bore out, lugged back in and impeded a couple of rivals. It was a mess. She actually went back to the farm and then came back just before her second start and ran a huge race with that initial experience, but the lack of training between races showed at the three-sixteenths as she just plain stopped. There are a couple of others that I like quite a bit here - but the trend of significant improvement from race to race, the obvious increase in race fitness, and the drop in class is just too much for me to not just take a stand with her. Because she could easily be 4-5, or she could easily be 5-1, it's a weird race to predict the tote action - I'm inspired to think a small pick four ticket may just be the way to approach it until the fourth when observation of the tote and will pays may be needed for more guidance.

Suerte!


Back for some wacky plays in the fourth and maybe a pick 5 later on.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Man oh man... I'd love to be live going into this final leg, but alas, even thought it looked like a string of races ripe for a bunch of burning chalk, I just couldn't go plowing $50+ into a pick four full of small fields and count on a sketchy single to close it out. It took all my might not to use Kato's mare in the second because I knew she'd be huge, but honestly expected her to just do enough to mess up exotics - couldn't convince myself that everyone else would run so badly that she'd actually get the job done. Ah well, regardless of what happens in the fourth leg here, I'm guessing this will be a rather perty pick four for a series of short fields.

As I look now, my single Little Lucky Lake is bebopping around the 3-1 to 4-1 range and that's not too bad. I certainly wouldn't care to bet my last dollars at that price and count on her to put it all together today, but if nothing else, she may work as a solid key in a spot where there a few fairly intriguing fillies.

I'll post a hypothetical play for the race. I also like the , , somewhat more than the others. The two, I believe, is the one that might just ruin the chances of my top pick here as I think there's a fair amount of speed here that may just benefit from the second trip over the track. The six is a firster that began training in So. Cal for good connections and made her way here and has turned in a couple of really nice breezes in preparation, but I hate those most recent works at five eighths or beyond leading into the debut. Well, unless you're hoping to take the edge off and just get a steady race without hoping for a rocket start to get right involved. The seven ran a big race to make up a bit of ground late in her most recent and this could be a good spot to run a repeat effort - plus QH jock turned TB jock Tapia is replaced by go-to Giovanni Franco for this one, so that's a plus considering the style of the debut.

Let's try:

$12 exacta 4 - 2,6,7 = $36
$8 exacta 2,6,7 - 4 = $24

$2 tri 4 - 267 = $12
$12 tri 267 -4 = $6

.50 super 4 - 2,6,7 - 2,67 - ALL =
.50 super 2,6,7 -4 -2,6,7 - ALL

$25W #4 - $25

[johnhannibalsmith]

Welper, got pressed throughout, drew out outside the eighth and just got nailed on the money by the six. That's not the end of the world, but the longest shot in the field rolled up to outfinish the 2 for third, leaving me with nothing but backup exactas instead of triactors and superactors to boot.

The plays I posted are a screwy mess as I heard Chambermaid call them heading to the gate as I just began piecing it together and rushed, but I think those plays plus my ill-fated pick 4 totaled $157 in action and the lone winning return on the $8 6-4 exacta paid off at $143.20 for a $13.80 loss all told. We basically danced all around a pile of tickets that would have paid rather beautifully conisdering the .50pick 4 came back at $11,754.80, the $1 trifecta $234.30, and the .50 super at $590.40. We made it to the ballpark, we just left the tickets at home and had to watch on TV at the bar nextdoor.

[LAP_520]

Learned a lesson today at T P. Kaylyn Kato has a horse entered in a race with Jockey Akifumi Kato listed on it....I will not be a tossing no matter how high the odds.!!

Brought back memories of Jackie Davis's Win at Aqueduct last Saturday on a Suffolk Downs Shipper.

If the horse can get into the starting gate, and leave the starting gate in good fashion, they have the race half won... all they have to do now is get "the trip".

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm gonna piece together a pick fiver here for shins and grits, using two singles and plenty of spread in three of the races - and even then I'd like to press on deeper, but I want to stay around $50. A string of super logical plays should still kick back a winner that gives up at least 5-2 and a few hidden gems getting there could be a nice ticket today.

My biggest problem was finding a single in the last and my initial move was to single Willycan there because to watch the last race was to laugh at yet another ill-conceived wild middle move by Carreno in the turn that got him to a clear lead mid-stretch only to get nailed on the money. I know he's leading rider and everyone loves him, but this maneuver has gotten a handful of winners beat and most of those have been great bet-back opportunities with a rider change. This looked like one of those, but on closer inspection, Willycan's form is LITTERED with races that had him look like a winner mid-stretch only to get run over late. He just looks like a hanger that can't make the lead until the last possible second when ALL the rest have completely quit running and he can't slam on the brakes fast enough. Grudgingly, I turned to His Holiness, who trains CArson's Cooper for Mark Rheinford. This veteran gelding is honest and may not be a superstar, but he's certainly honest. The short layoff doesn't concern me much from this barn, especially when you look at the typical His Holiness worktab and I had to swallow my pride and just give this one the credit he probably deserves in this spot.

Three minutes to post, so no time to justify every other wacky selection I used here, but of note, I have once again omitted the moey burner Pivotal Queen from the turf race. I expect a big rebound effort from SS Shelby, but I'm expecting something better from Spokabne Dancer at a big number today... I hope... well, here it is:

Race 5- .50 pick 5 - 2,3,4,5,6 / 1 / 2,6,7,8 / 3,4,5,7,8 / 6 = $50

If you want to double that investment, I suppose using 3 Willycan in the last would make sense,.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by LAP_520

Learned a lesson today at T P. Kaylyn Kato has a horse entered in a race with Jockey Akifumi Kato listed on it....I will not be a tossing no matter how high the odds.!!

...

That's jockey Aki's daughter Kaylyn. He rides them all, unless he's hurt. It's a team effort down there at the Kato barn.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

...
Race 5- .50 pick 5 - 2,3,4,5,6 / 1 / 2,6,7,8 / 3,4,5,7,8 / 6 = $50

...

1-5 and eased across the wire. God bless America.

[Maximillion]

race 7

I like the old guy Heroi Do Bafra--Made a nice move in last but the race was
virtually over when he did.Hopefully he can get his a$$ in gear quickly turning back.Last sure didnt take anything out of him....

The current favorite the is 3 for 47.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

race 7

I like the old guy Heroi Do Bafra--Made a nice move in last but the race was
virtually over when he did.Hopefully he can get his a$$ in gear quickly turning back.Last sure didnt take anything out of him....

The current favorite the is 3 for 47.

Strange race from a pace perspective... hard to even speculate who is going to get serious here and take initiative.

Looking at the prices now, I'm interested in Mettler Station at 6-1 who has obviously tailed off in NorCal, but he shows races where he was chasing solid paces both on polytrack and traditional dirt from close range. Troy Smith, love him or hate him or really hate him, is a good horseman and wouldn't surprise me to see him ask his go-to rider to get aggressive early and put this one right in the mix and try to get brave here.

I also have always been a big fan of Strategist, who has little speed at all, but he's a grinder and I prefer him sprinting in spots like this.

Win plays on both and some exactas and whatnot are in order.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Yeah, he who makes the lead was by default the winner and they let Clay W Woodstock take control easily early and that was it. No way I could play that sucker at that price, pace advantage (no pun...) and all. The entire field pretty much conceded that they had no interest in winning when they just handed the race to that cheapie.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Yeah, he who makes the lead was by default the winner and they let Clay W Woodstock take control easily early and that was it. No way I could play that sucker at that price, pace advantage (no pun...) and all. The entire field pretty much conceded that they had no interest in winning when they just handed the race to that cheapie.

Having trouble with the video and didnt see the race but I agree with you....On paper it didnt look like there was a lot of speed.Im real leery of that in a lot of these cheapies because thats when it turns into a 4 horse speed duel which was what I was expecting.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Cheap turf mare race is just a total crapshoot. It seems that since it rained that anyone able to clear off down the backside is just that much tought to run down and after watching the earlier race on turf, it seems that trend is still in effect to some degree even if the pacesetter was collared inside the quarter.

This is just a mess and not a race I'd like to play even though I think a couple here are eligible to rebound off of poor efforts in this spot. Spokane Dancer and S S Shelby are probably two of the more talented fillies in the race, but I'm more than a little gun shy about getting too into trying to get serious about evaluating the way this one will run.

For that reason, I'm going outside of my wheelhouse to play a couple of exacta boxes with the two that I like and a few at big prices that coud conceivably be the ones trying to fend off the better mares in the lane. Those being Miss Madavor at 16-1, Drqwing Breath at 18-1 (who got an idiotic ride last time), and Devine Sage at 15-1.

$2 exacta box - 1,2,4,5,7 = $40

.10 super 1,2,5,7 -1,2,4,5,7 - 1,2,4,5,6,7 -1,2,4,5,6,7, 8, 10

[johnhannibalsmith]

Friggin' SS Shelby looked like she broke down at the sixteenth just as she was about to run clearly into second behind the runaway winner Drawing Breath, and noobody could make up the needed few feet of ground on favorite Pivotal Queen once that happened and she barely holds second from both Miss Madavor and Spokane Dancer... killing my exacta and super with nothing more than bad luck.

As it was, $2 exacta was $145.80 and .10 super was $648.47...

SS Shelby doesn't come undone at a most inopportune moment and I can only guess that the exacta would be quite a bit better and the super would be at worst only marginally less. Just crappy, bad luck there in a race that should have been a get out of jail free card with reimbursement for court costs and a little settlement to boot.

[Maximillion]

race 9

Top two favorites look very vulnerable to me.

Mikes Trippin--Solid second in last and think he can move forward a little off that race.Has a penchant for outrunning his odds.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

race 9

Top two favorites look very vulnerable to me.

Mikes Trippin--Solid second in last and think he can move forward a little off that race.Has a penchant for outrunning his odds.

Mike's Trippin is one of my all time favorites... but I'm giving him underneath love here as I look for another big race from the favorite Willycan where he looks like he's on his way to victory only to hang on the last horse and wait to get beat.

A goofy play, but that's what the finale and it's collection of $200 bums is for - goofy moves to bail out if you don't have the good sense to just go home...

$1 trifecta 6,10 - 3,5,6,9,10,12 - 3,5,6,9,10, 12 = $40

.10 super 6,10 - 3,5,6,9,10,12 - 3,5,6,9,10,12 - 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,12 = $28