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Old 09-08-2018, 07:16 PM   #1
jasperson
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Whales

Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.
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Old 09-09-2018, 01:29 PM   #2
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Cuts the chances of winning I suppose. Between even money and 2-1 is great if you're throwing down high figures.

And I suspect some of them are sadistic assholes who don't want people with shallower pockets to make any scratch. On a conspiratorial reach: maybe they are sometimes paid to hammer down the odds and decrease pay outs.
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Old 09-09-2018, 01:48 PM   #3
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And I suspect some of them are sadistic assholes who don't want people with shallower pockets to make any scratch. On a conspiratorial reach: maybe they are sometimes paid to hammer down the odds and decrease pay outs.
Nobody is being sadistic or assholish. It is simply business. They're making profit.

Would you say that Walmart is run by a bunch of assholes who are just taking advantage of people by making profit off the consumer?

(Note that I am not a big fan of Walmart and how they pay their employees, but I still shop there because it provides me with the best pricing I can get.)


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Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.
They also play exotics. In fact, they play ALL the pools.

And you are correct, the exotics DO offer more value, but probably not for the reason you think.

The reason they offer more value is because the takeout is higher.

WHAT?

I said that the value is higher for them because the takeout is higher and, therefore, they get a higher rebate because the rebate deal is also usually tied to the takeout.


The typical whale deal with an ADW is that their rebate is tied directly to whatever the ADW is making as their commission on a bet.

It works like this:
Assume 18% takeout. Let's follow that 18%.
(Note that these numbers are not likely accurate in 2018. I admit to being a bit out of the loop these days.)

1. Of that the track keeps 2%, leaving 16%.
2. Perhaps the horsemen take 1%, leaving 15%.
3. The signal fees and tote is another 3.5%, leaving 11.5%.
4. That 11.5% is passed on to the ADW as commission.

Here's where things get interesting. This is where the ADW net is split between the ADW and the bettor. (Note that their could be an agent who also gets a small commission for bringing the customer to the ADW.)

Let's say that you are a $1,000 per month player.
(Note that I am making these numbers up. I've got no idea what your ADW deal might be.)

5. The ADW is going to keep the 1st 8%. That means you get to keep whatever the ADW commission - 8% is. At this track that means 3.5%.

If the net to the ADW was only 10%, you'd be getting a 2% rebate.

If the ADW commission rate was 7% then you'd get 0% for a rebate.


Now, let's change the scenario to a whale betting $10m per month.
That 11.5% that goes to the ADW is split way differently.

5. The ADW keeps 0.5% and gives you the rest. Thus, at an 11.5% track, you are going to get an 11% rebate. At an 8% track, you are going to get a 7.5% rebate.


These are the BASIC mechanics of how it works.

BTW, do not expect the "retail stores," such as Twin Spires or Express Bet to work quite this way.


Finally, the extremely high volume players may be offered an even better deal. A flat sum is paid to the ADW for the year and the player gets ALL of the ADW commission.


Hope this helps with your understanding.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 09-09-2018 at 01:52 PM.
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Old 09-09-2018, 07:28 PM   #4
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Here's the story, there is no "winning proposition" bet for anybody UNLESS you win! I don't care how you do it. Bet allot or bet a little. Get a rebate or don't, it's all the same thing. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?

You must win more money than you lose and forget about the whales, unless you happen to be one, which I doubt.
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:33 PM   #5
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Here's the story, there is no "winning proposition" bet for anybody UNLESS you win! I don't care how you do it. Bet allot or bet a little. Get a rebate or don't, it's all the same thing. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?

You must win more money than you lose and forget about the whales, unless you happen to be one, which I doubt.
So your belief is that the level of competition that you are up against doesn't matter?
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:48 PM   #6
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It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:14 PM   #7
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It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
Very insightful......it is exactly what happened to dog racing. Of course, state run lotteries and casinos played a very big part.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:22 PM   #8
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It is what it is Dave.

Not only that, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Free Markets have a way of correcting for this. If the Whales are beating everybody over the head, it will stop at some point.

What are they going to do?

They'll quit.

No more heads to beat in.
Competition doesn't matter. A naive position.

Good luck to you.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:34 PM   #9
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I compete against everyone Dave, that's what I do.

I don't need anyone to "step in" and level the playing field.

It's not a fair fight for them.
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Old 09-09-2018, 11:12 PM   #10
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Old 09-10-2018, 02:42 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
Why do the Whales bet win,place and knock down the odds? Is it because the exotics don't offer winning propositions? I think that with their expertise the exotics would offer better value.

i dunno anything much about betting myself, but i do know that when i was doing stuff for entropy and others later on, their main action(according to what entropy told me) was quinellas.


i have spreadsheet of their betting(australia) and it was every meeting/every race/every pool type, but again quinellas was the major attraction to them.
but it would surely be fluid in that it would depend on what they perceive gives them the best returns on $ spent.


don't know, these days, but i don't think they are as active as they once were.


it's interesting in that most of the names i know, are now domiciled in malta. even those that were from opposing teams, all seem to be there.


panama papers throw up all their names too, and they are all linked.
i wonder what goes on in malta.
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:43 AM   #12
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. This is a parimutuel game, so it follows you must do what?
well it might be for 98% of horse players in the United states, in the UK and Australia. Fixed odds betting takes most of the money.

if I was a PM player now and could not bet the exchange, I would switch to fixed odds sports betting. much better bang for the buck.

PM is a dinosaur. its only a matter of time before it becomes extinct.

Allan
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:50 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Competition doesn't matter. A naive position.

Good luck to you.
Of course you should know your comp. for me its the very annoying Betfair BOTS on the exchange. They scoop up any ridiculous prices before I even see it. I get the crumbs. The BOTS get the loaf, I get the crumbs. But at least I bet with open eyes. I go to the price graph and many times I see what the BOTS have scooped up on horses I bet. they make LOTS of money.

Allan
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:08 PM   #14
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Of course you should know your comp. for me its the very annoying Betfair BOTS on the exchange. They scoop up any ridiculous prices before I even see it. I get the crumbs. The BOTS get the loaf, I get the crumbs. But at least I bet with open eyes. I go to the price graph and many times I see what the BOTS have scooped up on horses I bet. they make LOTS of money.

Allan

If you want to spend the money you can buy a bot too, then you are back to a level playing field.
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Old 09-10-2018, 03:13 PM   #15
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well it might be for 98% of horse players in the United states, in the UK and Australia. Fixed odds betting takes most of the money.

if I was a PM player now and could not bet the exchange, I would switch to fixed odds sports betting. much better bang for the buck.

PM is a dinosaur. its only a matter of time before it becomes extinct.

Allan

The problem with fixed odds betting is that someone has to book the bets. These tracks aren't going to leave themselves open to a big hit when they get the odds wrong and some sharp lays down big bucks. You see morning line odds that are way off everyday, what would happen if they were fixed odds?
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