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Old 09-12-2018, 05:57 PM   #46
castaway01
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don't laugh at this guy, he has the right idea!
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ghlight=whales
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:02 PM   #47
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The 'wails' have always used the exacta pool heavily. Not hidden at all.



Lots of silly action too. I guess those are the guys that blew up , I see less of the idiocy lately.
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:19 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
The 'wails' have always used the exacta pool heavily. Not hidden at all.



Lots of silly action too. I guess those are the guys that blew up , I see less of the idiocy lately.
Trust me when I say that there are no $100m a year guys blowing up.
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Old 09-12-2018, 07:10 PM   #49
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Trust me when I say that there are no $100m a year guys blowing up.



Who said anything about 100mm a year?



I'm sure there are those with lesser bankrolls.


Anyhow, I said I saw lots of stupid play in the pools, that seems to have gone away. That's a fact

Last edited by AltonKelsey; 09-12-2018 at 07:12 PM.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:48 PM   #50
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Who said anything about 100mm a year?



I'm sure there are those with lesser bankrolls.


Anyhow, I said I saw lots of stupid play in the pools, that seems to have gone away. That's a fact
But then they aren't whales.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:43 PM   #51
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But then they aren't whales.

So 5, 10 15 ,20 MM a year, doesn't qualify as whale meat?
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:28 PM   #52
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So 5, 10 15 ,20 MM a year, doesn't qualify as whale meat?
Not in my book.

But it is just semantics and I get that. Still a lot of money.

I personally know someone who used to wager around $40m. He's not in the same league with the top 6. Between those 6, they wager something like $1.6b.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:09 AM   #53
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Not in my book.

But it is just semantics and I get that. Still a lot of money.

I personally know someone who used to wager around $40m. He's not in the same league with the top 6. Between those 6, they wager something like $1.6b.

You're probably right


At 20mm thats only 55k a day betting EVERY day. Spread out over a few tracks, you would barely notice it.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:40 AM   #54
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You're probably right


At 20mm thats only 55k a day betting EVERY day. Spread out over a few tracks, you would barely notice it.
Sure, laugh if you will, but you're actually missing the point.

THE POINT is that 1 out of 7 dollars is wagered by 6 entities.

SIX.

When they agree... and THEY don't know when they are going to agree... the tote board tilts significantly.

THAT is what is making the game so difficult.

So, if you have another $400m spread over 50 guys, it is just that: SPREAD.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:49 AM   #55
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Sure, laugh if you will, but you're actually missing the point.

THE POINT is that 1 out of 7 dollars is wagered by 6 entities.

SIX.

When they agree... and THEY don't know when they are going to agree... the tote board tilts significantly.

THAT is what is making the game so difficult.

So, if you have another $400m spread over 50 guys, it is just that: SPREAD.
Yet another reason to bet only when you have a true advantage / overlay.

~15 % of the pools are bet into by only six groups... That's a lot. Good info to know too.
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:20 AM   #56
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Now I'm laughing


I was serious, 50k a day is nothing into the major pools, and if they are betting multiple horses/combos that gets even more diluted.


So I do agree, whale would be reserved for much higher handles.





When you see how much is bet on the bell , its obvious that a few big outfits are responsible for much of that action. Whether its 6 or not, I have no way of knowing.



They do seem to get it wrong often enough, but for many, the frustration of seeing their overlay turn to something much less, so often. is upsetting.

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Old 09-14-2018, 03:12 AM   #57
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Now I'm laughing


I was serious, 50k a day is nothing into the major pools, and if they are betting multiple horses/combos that gets even more diluted.


So I do agree, whale would be reserved for much higher handles.





When you see how much is bet on the bell , its obvious that a few big outfits are responsible for much of that action. Whether its 6 or not, I have no way of knowing.



They do seem to get it wrong often enough, but for many, the frustration of seeing their overlay turn to something much less, so often. is upsetting.
Often enough for WHAT? For us to "outplay them"?
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Old 09-14-2018, 09:55 AM   #58
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One thing to clarify in the late odds shifts.

Its not just the "last second" money but can be potentially up to 119 (+/- latency) seconds worth of bets in that last cycle.

Tracks(totes) generally aggregate wagers into the pools/odds once every 30 or 60 seconds. 30 seconds is becoming more common, but not yet standard. Depending on if the remote system is in sync with the host it can be up to 29 or 59 seconds behind the host. It is again, more common now for the host to force cycles on the remote but NOT standard.

So worst case scenario is a remote can be sending pool data for 119 seconds worth of bets in the last cycle that is triggered by the post time lock message.

EVEN when in sync you are still talking a full 30 to 60 seconds of wagering in the final push.

Now.. given most bettors don't go to the window until 5 minutes to post and ADWs. How much of that last 1 to 2 minutes of wagering is whales vs average players?

Whales get blamed for a lot that is simply a function of the technology the industry uses. Also lots of "Past Post" claims are false for the exact same reasons.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:00 AM   #59
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Tracks(totes) generally aggregate wagers into the pools/odds once every 30 or 60 seconds. 30 seconds is becoming more common, but not yet standard. .
Why does it take so long? The exchange odds (betfair) are changed are changed almost instantaneously and their bets come from the UK and New Jersey.

Allan
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:09 AM   #60
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Whales get blamed for a lot that is simply a function of the technology the industry uses. Also lots of "Past Post" claims are false for the exact same reasons.
Great to see someone on the inside say this. Fits with what Dave has been saying since I've joined here as well
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