Let's handicap 6/13 Churchill Race 2 (Sat. night)

[letswastemoney]

At first glance, this race looks like a mess of worthy contenders. I wanted to see what the other opinions are, as someone wants my opinion and I'm determined to get this right.

The only horse I can eliminate with certainty is Bubsy Alley, because he's a cheap first time Flower Alley, and that isn't exactly a winning formula. Other than him, most of these horses hold a small chance.

What do you think?

BRIS PPs

[whodoyoulike]

Your link is bad .....

People should try this one.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

Why do you frequently favor Mdn races?

But, I do like your idea.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Your link is bad .....

People should try this one.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

Why do you frequently favor Mdn races?

But, I do like your idea.

You're right I gave a bad link. I'm doing the whole Saturday night card for a friend. I had a good feel for the first race. This one is a bit harder.

But, I do favor maiden races more often than not though. Well, the 2 year old ones later in the year are easier. Horses can be eliminated through pedigree, trainer percentages with first timers and stuff like that.

When they get to 3 years old and up, like in this race, the horses with shaky form the previous year hang around, and the first time starters as 3 year olds are less trustworthy. So they get more difficult. Why would they take so long to make the racetrack? Then again, Zenyatta never started until she was a late 3 year old.

Anyways, why not choose more difficult races?

We aren't going to learn as much as a group looking at easy or comfortable ones. Might as well tackle the ones most people fear.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

...
Anyways, why not choose more difficult races?

We aren't going to learn as much as a group looking at easy or comfortable ones. Might as well tackle the ones most people fear.

Well, there's not enough info for me in certain types of races which I avoid since I like the opportunity to bet if I'm going to handicap the race.

Again, I like your idea. I'm surprised more people don't do this.

[CosmicWon]

I like the straight 1,7 as As then 1a,2,4,5,8 Bs. 3,6 were tosses.

#8 in here is a 1/2 bro to Commissioner, who of course runs later in card R8. Kellyn is good firsters but this dam only throws stout, no brilliance and Tiznow def doesn't help with the speed part. Figure he'll need one or two, perhaps try him back going 9F at SAR MSW.

Both Kings Knight and Enduring Hinor have shown ability on dirt and seemed to have gotten their regression in last race which augurs for forward improvement in this race today. Imbetterthangood also a bit of an in-and-horse so I'd look for him to run better today. He does have to give 7lbs to the field but he is the only 4yo in the field.

Muntij is one who can keep getting better for Peitz but may be most effective sprinting Down the road.

Interesting to see all the trainers Calumet are using these days. These have to be some of the first for both Romans and Rusty.

[johnhannibalsmith]

You're right - a mess of contenders - this race would be one that I'd probably enjoy using in a pick bet with a lot of numbers on it but making a win wager would prove a lot tougher for me.

But, I know the guy ahead of me labeled him a toss, yet I'm sort of interested in Guilty Streak if a win bet is the motif here.

I'm not sure I believe the 10-1 M/L will hold up, but maybe. There isn't anyone in here that looks like he ought take piles of money; no real 'horse to beat'.

This guy ran an awfully good debut getting beat under 4 lengths after spotting them about 20 early. He ran no friggin' good at all 3 weeks later in his second start... but... he is firing right back here in under 2 weeks and the colt took quite a bit of money for that poor effort.

Those signs point me to the very real possibility that something just went wrong somewhere along the course of the day and they got a non-effort. If he is up there near 10-1 and I had to make a win bet, I think I could probably do it on the premise that the last is not to be believed and this time we'll get the improved race off a solid debut that was expected last time.

[letswastemoney]

Eh I just turned in my card analysis to my friend. True story, she paid $20 even though I only asked for $4...maybe she hit the wrong button on PayPal (lol).

Guilty Streak? His family seemed a bit turfy when I looked at what other horses the dam produced. That was my only concern. I'm on my phone. Maybe I'll look again in again bit.

[NJ Stinks]

Muntij ( the ) will get plenty of consideration from me on Saturday.

1. I like Trainer Peitz stretching out.

2. I like the improving Beyers.

3. Workout spacing is fine.

4. Running (4th) on Derby day may have been a positive learning experience. (At least that's what I thought Muntij said when interviewed after the race. )

[cordep17]

I think the will run well

Tough race though

[sydr]

First glance contenders

1-2-5-8

[whodoyoulike]

I think Enduring Honor is improving and looked pretty good from his replays, seems to be trying throughout in each of his last few races.

Probably running the 8.5f in 105.5 +/-.

[Tom]

[ultracapper]

Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?

I don't know about anyone else, but my online friend went to Churchill Downs to see American Pharoah parade, and she paid me $20 to get my analysis. Otherwise, maybe I'd have just watched.

If anyone wants to look at what I gave her, click on this link.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing

I thought my picks were fine. But, betting structure is a weak point...she ended up just doing place bets on my top picks anyway.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?

Only exceptions - Derby day, and whenever they show enough sense to run a night card.