Triple Crown Beyers 2011 vs 2012

[Steve R]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Thanks for posting the PFs . . . no doubt they have proved their stuff.
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I've been followin' the PFs and the pace parameters closely this year and along with some pedigree data you have provided I'm thinkin' the Pletcher horse is lookin' pretty tough right now with Hansen and Union Rags right there with him. Hopefully he'll make it to the gate and he gets an off track. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out in the San Felipe with three Dual Qualifiers goin' in that one along with the Kwon horse, Groovin' Solo. Looks like the west coast boys might have somethin' for em' this year. Any thoughts on the San Felipe and this crop of Derby contenders?

Can't go without sayin' and givin' a good and fine thanks for the work you have done at your site this year, many of us appreciate it.
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I've got a question or two regarding the PFs. How dependent are the PFs and the complete pace parameter data set upon the ability of the jockey? Can a bad ride or two skew the complete data set? And the data itself is dependent upon the observations of the chart callers. How reliable are any figures based upon what may be inaccurate data?

Thanks

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the San Felipe, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Swale!

I think the San Felipe field is by far the deepest to date on this year's TC trail. The class edge IMO goes to Creative Cause although Empire Way, Liaison, Rousing Sermon and Groovin' Solo are interesting.

To the extent a jockey affects the running and the outcome of a race he or she will have a large impact on the data one uses to analyze it. That's why it's much more preferable to have several races to consider in a final analysis.

And certainly the talent of the chart callers is critical to the accuracy of the analysis. Unfortunately, and regardless of how good the chart caller is, there are built-in inaccuracies in charts including imprecise measures like beaten lengths. But I've found that the one thing that creates more slack, at least for speed figures, is the variant. It's a separate discussion, but the concept of static or even clustered variants on a given day has problems. The change in surface characteristics is dynamic. The combination of track moisture, temperature, humidity, wind and other factors is in a constant state of flux. That's why I always use regression analysis to determine changes in track speed throughout the day. Occasionally the result justifies a different variant for each race, especially on days when a track is drying out.

[redshift1]

Non-handicapping addendum.

After 21 preps:

The mean Beyer is 94.10

The range is 82-105

Although the sample is small and the distribution is marginally skewed to the right here are some possible outcomes.

68.2% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 87.92-100.28.

95.4% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 81.74-106.46.

This compares favorably with last year when the Derby preps had a 82-104 range.

Interestingly, last years Triple Crown Beyers all exceeded 100 which statistically seems unusual compared to the preps but is probably a function of the TC fields being an aggregation of prep winners.
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[Valuist]

Comparing anything favorably to 2011 is like saying one is the biggest midget in the room.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Comparing anything favorably to 2011 is like saying one is the biggest midget in the room.

Probably a dwarf then.

[redshift1]

Favorably as in quantitatively not qualitatively.

[cj]

Beyers from yesterday,

Wood Memorial, 98
Illinois Derby, 85
Santa Anita Derby, 94

[classhandicapper]

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by cj

Beyers from yesterday,

Wood Memorial, 98
Illinois Derby, 85
Santa Anita Derby, 94

Not that I really care about the number but I think Gem will break that 100 with no problem in the derby...

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

Makes you wonder, I feel like this years crop is better and incrementally it is by a couple of Beyer points but no big numbers yet.

In 2009 five of the preps exceeded 108, 105 is tops this year.

http://test.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/preps.html


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[depalma113]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's disappointing that no one has been able to step forward with a fast race. It's not that unusual for the 3YOs to be running high 90s in the early preps, but usually a couple of horses step forward.

They used to run more than twice. Now with the pathetic schedules, horses don't get that chance to step up.

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by redshift1

Non-handicapping addendum.

After 21 preps:

The mean Beyer is 94.10

The range is 82-105

Although the sample is small and the distribution is marginally skewed to the right here are some possible outcomes.

68.2% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 87.92-100.28.

95.4% chance the next prep Beyer will be between 81.74-106.46.

This compares favorably with last year when the Derby preps had a 82-104 range.

Interestingly, last years Triple Crown Beyers all exceeded 100 which statistically seems unusual compared to the preps but is probably a function of the TC fields being an aggregation of prep winners.
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Looks like all the preps will fall within plus or minus two STDV's from the mean thanks to the strangely restrained 105 awarded to Bodiemeister.

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[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by depalma113

They used to run more than twice. Now with the pathetic schedules, horses don't get that chance to step up.

Good point.

Everyone trying to peak on the same day.

[cj]

Interesting tidbit regarding Beyer figures. If you bet the top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby the last 20 years, you would have bet 24 horses due to ties. Six of the 24 won, a respectable 25% for such large fields, and the ROI is a ridiculous $3.48 for each $1 bet.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by cj

Interesting tidbit regarding Beyer figures. If you bet the top Beyer in the Kentucky Derby the last 20 years, you would have bet 24 horses due to ties. Six of the 24 won, a respectable 25% for such large fields, and the ROI is a ridiculous $3.48 for each $1 bet.

What are those 6 winners?

Big Brown
Fu Peg
Silver Charm
Charismatic
War Emblem
Lil E Tee

If I'm not mistaken?