The Handicapper's Cafe

[iceknight]

An excellent thread/forum Thaskalos. Thanks for leading the way in helping others out! I started last year and after a dream run for two months (during summer), I went through valleys and peaks. Took a break and just getting back as the Derby season is warming up!

I am very interested in learning more about figuring out chances of closers vs leaders/off the pace stalkers - under various track conditions. And also about turf races - I still cannot wrap my head around any turf race yet and definitely none of the downhill turfs they do in So Cal circuits.

[castaway01]

No question to ask right now, but I just wanted to say that the post about the mental side of the game was excellent and I really respect what you're trying to do in this forum. Very interesting stuff.

[GaryG]

When you are in the midst of a losing streak self doubt begins to creep in and you have a tendency to overhandicap. You might have a price horse that you are set to play, but when you look closer there are some things that you don't like. Maybe you were wrong and he is not that good. If he wins (and you know he will) and you don't have money on him you have picked a winner while, at the same time, digging a bigger hole for yourself. And on and on. When you lose a head bob finish in which your horse was a ton the best consider it as a victory. You were right, you just don't get paid this time. Just do it the way you do it and things will turn around as they always do.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by castaway01

No question to ask right now, but I just wanted to say that the post about the mental side of the game was excellent and I really respect what you're trying to do in this forum. Very interesting stuff.

I appreciate the kind words...

My own gambling journey has been a painful one, and, in retrospect, I realized that much of this pain could have been avoided...had I followed some of the advice I received along the way.

But whom do you listen to...and how can you tell the good advice from the bad?

I keep remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I found that this is very true; ultimately, all winning gamblers are "self-taught"...but a true mentor or two, coming at the right time, can make a world of difference -- if the player is paying attention.

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.

If I can help even ONE player avoid some of the pain that I have gone through...then I will consider my efforts here to be worthwhile.

[Dave Schwartz]

I keep on remembering an old-time gambler...who told me once:

"Gambling wisdom can be learned...but it cannot be taught."

I want to be that sort of mentor to all those who would care to listen...because this game doesn't need any more "victims" than it currently has.

Thask,

Don't those two quotes contradict each other?

Personally, I believe you can teach people. Let me emphasize that differently... YOU (personally) can (probably) teach people.

Granted, there are lessons that must be learned from the inside out which are required to become a world class at anything.

I will also give you that not everyone is capable of learning to win just like I was never able to learn to go to my left, ending any shot I had at a basketball career. (Okay, coupled with the fact that I can't jump and am only 5'9".)

My point is that people can certainly be taught to improve their game (whatever that game might be) but may not be able to improve to the level of world class, which is what it takes to beat the game.


Now that I think of it I guess I can see why those two quotes are not really contradictory. There are simply limitations on the end result.


Dave,

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Thask,

Don't those two quotes contradict each other?

Personally, I believe you can teach people. Let me emphasize that differently... YOU (personally) can (probably) teach people.

Granted, there are lessons that must be learned from the inside out which are required to become a world class at anything.

I will also give you that not everyone is capable of learning to win just like I was never able to learn to go to my left, ending any shot I had at a basketball career. (Okay, coupled with the fact that I can't jump and am only 5'9".)

My point is that people can certainly be taught to improve their game (whatever that game might be) but may not be able to improve to the level of world class, which is what it takes to beat the game.


Now that I think of it I guess I can see why those two quotes are not really contradictory. There are simply limitations on the end result.


Dave,

I don't think my two quotes contradict each other, Dave...and I'll tell you why:

I spoke a little here about the "mental" side of gambling, which I consider to be of vital importance...but can I really expect those who read what I had to say, to heed my advice when they find themselves in the "heat" of battle?

Not likely...

I told them the TRUTH...but it was MY truth...and it won't become theirs until they embrace it for themselves. And, most likely, that won't start to be the case until they have experienced some of the pain that all undisciplined players expose themselves to...in all the arenas of gambling.

But in the midst of that pain, they might remember me and my advice, just as I remembered the advice that others had given ME...and then, slowly, they may begin embracing the truthfullness of what I initially told them. And then...my "wisdom" becomes theirs to keep.

And both my seemingly conflicting quotes prove themselves to be TRUE!

They ultimately taught "themselves"...but I was still a great help to them along the way...

[thaskalos]

The great Taoist saying goes..."The teacher appears, only when the student is ready"...

In gambling...the student often SAYS that he is "ready" -- but he really ISN'T.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by GaryG

When you are in the midst of a losing streak self doubt begins to creep in and you have a tendency to overhandicap. You might have a price horse that you are set to play, but when you look closer there are some things that you don't like. Maybe you were wrong and he is not that good. If he wins (and you know he will) and you don't have money on him you have picked a winner while, at the same time, digging a bigger hole for yourself. And on and on. When you lose a head bob finish in which your horse was a ton the best consider it as a victory. You were right, you just don't get paid this time. Just do it the way you do it and things will turn around as they always do.

Do you think a larger bankroll would help you over these times? The question might be, what is the proper bet size based on your bankroll size?

[Pell Mell]

Gus, I agree with most of what you say and having been at the game myself for over 60 years I also have been down that learning road.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are an awful lot of players who are not bad handicappers but are liars. Not that they lie to others about what they do but they lie to themselves. They won't admit that the losing path they are following is their own fault but blame it on a million other things.

So I think that some good advice is to learn to look in the mirror and tell that guy you see in there the truth. Mighty hard for some to do.

[GaryG]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Do you think a larger bankroll would help you over these times? The question might be, what is the proper bet size based on your bankroll size?

You should not be betting with a large bankroll unless you have proven to yourself that your method(s) are profitable. I would never bet more than 5% on any one race. Losing more than you can afford do to a wild hair impulse can be devastating....

[jdhanover]

A few (I am sure I will think of many, many more) topics/questions that I would be very interested in Gus' (and others') perspectives:

1) Money management - specifically ho you determine the size of the bet in a given race/situation
2) Exotics - I know you are a big superfecta bettor - how do you structure those bets? How do you determine that you have enough value in the the race to bet it? Bet size also comes into play here. And any thoughts on 0ther exotics (horizontal or vertical)
3) Track specific adjustment to your play (if any) - what are they, how did you determine this and why?
4) Layoffs - how do you evaluate them?
5) Trainer and/or jockey impact on your evaluation of a horse
6) Factors that make the last race(s) 'throw outs' versus signs of declining form
7) Turf racing approach vs poly approach vs dirt approach.

Thx for considering any of these

[pauly]

My experience, largely miserable, leads me to believe that I have a losers mentality because i fail to make obvious bets. For example I was all over caleb's posse in the breeder's cup keying him in the various horizontal bets that i'm most interested in. I was playing with short money having been recently (at that time) laid off. So did I make a simple $10 or even $2 to win bet on the horse? Of course not. Another major component of my play is mission impossible. For example, with $80 in my phone account betting two pick 4s and a pick 6. Now for me this is fun even though I realize its insane. I can deal with that. Generally though when I'm actually betting live at an OTB my "psychology" is horrendous and consists of flying from one rage to the next with the stupid bets that inevitably follow. Lately I've been limiting myself to one pick 4 a week betting no more that about $30 and hedging the pick 4 with a double or two and a pick 3. My fantasy is being able to view a pick 4 sequence as a whole and being able to determine the most profitable pick 4 plays and the most effective double and pick 3 plays that will get my $ back at least. Obviously my handicapping is simply not good enuf to do this successfully on a consistent basis but i would like to hear ideas on this type of approach, on hedging in general and on improving my psychology when i'm betting live.

[bob60566]

Superfecta

I frequented a former site Offthepace for about three years before it shut down
the owner played the all the time the superfecta and triactor box but not every race as Vern the moderator woud see no value here. He would wager $320 on his selections and would most time go six deep.
I have never played the superfecta but my time at that site i saw him cash 14k tickets and less many times which he had to declare. He had his losing streaks but knew when to stop with very little damage.
He went 4/5/5/ 6 horses in various combinations and the odd All in the fourth spot he done all this online and posted at various tracks but very seldom on the west coast tracks.
To me he had the right way to play superfecta boxed and had the handicapping skills to match.
Mac

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

Gus, I agree with most of what you say and having been at the game myself for over 60 years I also have been down that learning road.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are an awful lot of players who are not bad handicappers but are liars. Not that they lie to others about what they do but they lie to themselves. They won't admit that the losing path they are following is their own fault but blame it on a million other things.

So I think that some good advice is to learn to look in the mirror and tell that guy you see in there the truth. Mighty hard for some to do.

IMO, most players can't handle the truth...about their own play, or about the game itself...

We lose year after year, and yet we refuse to give up our own losing methods of play...because we blame our results on bad luck.

We refuse to acknowledge that this is an extremely difficult game to beat...choosing instead to believe the unscrupulous system sellers and the irresponsible handicapping authors...who tell us that 20-40% long-term profits are out there waiting for us...in exchange for a $20 bill and a little effort.

Who wants to hear that this game is virtually unbeatable without great effort and single-minded dedication?

[Maximillion]

One specific thing i learned about myself, (or my play),and it took maybe 20 years to figure this out(why so long I cant say),is that playing only one circuit-

I would often find a good bet or two on a card (often quickly), and then try to "handicap the hell out of" the other races on the card, and often times the "handicapped to hell" races, that I spent a large amount of time going back and forth on were far less fruitful for me than the ones that seemed to appear relatively early in the process.