Florida Derby (only)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't know why everybody is being so hard on Rags.This was an absolutely paceless race and the speed won.

Think the Derby is going to be paceless?I don't.He'll have plenty to run at and more ground to do it.He's my favorite out of this batch,but as soon as I saw the probable pace picture I didn't think it suited him so well,cranked or not.I look forward to betting on him since everybody is jumping off the wagon.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I don't know why everybody is being so hard on Rags.This was an absolutely paceless race and the speed won.

Think the Derby is going to be paceless?I don't.He'll have plenty to run at and more ground to do it.He's my favorite out of this batch,but as soon as I saw the probable pace picture I didn't think it suited him so well,cranked or not.I look forward to betting on him since everybody is jumping off the wagon.

Agree.

It looked like he was moving well late, passed the place horse a few jumps after the wire and galloped out well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Nice call with the . A few of you guys (including Tom) had the as a good place pick.
Nice going.

I played the chalks....

Thanks Beachbabe(and Philofbelloni).It was far from a sure thing but it looked promising and fit the pace like a glove.Catching the 11-12 double for $68 was a nice finishing touch as well.I didn't think Keertana was back to her early 11 form.I only wished I'd have spent the couple extra bucks on the underneath savers in the exacta.But I honestly didn't see both UR and EP finishing worse than 2nd.

[Shelby]

In the interview that Julian gave to Christina before the race he said that Union Rags was 80% which all the commentators said would be more than enough to beat the field. Maybe the trainer wanted UR to get boxed in and learn a bit from the race? Just asking. I dunno.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Shelby

In the interview that Julian gave to Christina before the race he said that Union Rags was 80% which all the commentators said would be more than enough to beat the field. Maybe the trainer wanted UR to get boxed in and learn a bit from the race? Just asking. I dunno.

this was a good field, if i knew my horse was 80% heading into a race like that i would have scratched him. its only a race and he had enough money in the bank to go to the kentucky derby, now he might be questionable for the race.

it didn't matter to me if RAGS was 89-90-100 or 1000% today, i was betting either PEDRINO or the WINNER

[Shelby]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this was a good field, if i knew my horse was 80% heading into a race like that i would have scratched him. its only a race and he had enough money in the bank to go to the kentucky derby, now he might be questionable for the race.

it didn't matter to me if RAGS was 89-90-100 or 1000% today, i was betting either PEDRINO or the WINNER

Maybe I misunderstood the interview, but I'm pretty sure that's what Julian said.

Since they already have enough to get into the race, I just figured that he meant that they were revving up for the KY Derby. Maybe saving a bit? Am I saying this right?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this was a good field, if i knew my horse was 80% heading into a race like that i would have scratched him. its only a race and he had enough money in the bank to go to the kentucky derby, now he might be questionable for the race.

it didn't matter to me if RAGS was 89-90-100 or 1000% today, i was betting either PEDRINO or the WINNER

Matz said he was going to the Derby right after the race.Did you mean just getting there or getting there ready to pounce?If it's the latter I don't see what harm 1 more prep race could do.

[Blenheim]

Congratulations to the connections of the winner of the Florida Derby today, he proved to be much the best. Gotta love those AP Indy types . . . I think there is gonna be three of em' runnun' for the Roses this year. And a good and fine congratulations to you handicappers out there that had him to win, nice right fine piece of work.

Calvin got the job done again today, that Louisiana feller' sure is tough and given a good mount, he is as good as any of em'. Good to see him earn some redemption there at Gulfstream Park . . . no doubt he'll be in the Hall of Fame before all is said and done.

Once again, congrats to the connections of Take Charge Indy, he was tough!

[MickJ26]

I wonder how the connections of Hansen must feel right now after ducking Union Rags? Hansen may not have won today, but, he surely would've finished ahead of Union Rags.

[cj]

Originally Posted by MickJ26

I wonder how the connections of Hansen must feel right now after ducking Union Rags? Hansen may not have won today, but, he surely would've finished ahead of Union Rags.

Probably a bit of a stretch. The slow pace certainly didn't help UR, and Hansen probably changes that dynamic.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Congratulations to the connections of the winner of the Florida Derby today, he proved to be much the best. Gotta love those AP Indy types . . . I think there is gonna be three of em' runnun' for the Roses this year. And a good and fine congratulations to you handicappers out there that had him to win, nice right fine piece of work.

Calvin got the job done again today, that Louisiana feller' sure is tough and given a good mount, he is as good as any of em'. Good to see him earn some redemption there at Gulfstream Park . . . no doubt he'll be in the Hall of Fame before all is said and done.

Once again, congrats to the connections of Take Charge Indy, he was tough!

Not according to PA!

[Tread]

All the people now discounting El Padrino might want to take a look at the Trakus chart. He traveled so wide during that race, he went 68 ft further than the winner (and only finished 2.5 lengths back). He went 27ft further than Union Rags did even. He also had the fastest peak speed during the race.

Could the same thing happen again in KY? Sure it could, that's racing. But the one thing that today's result validated was that the huge Beyer and Thorograph figures TCI and El Padrino were given during their allowance race were justified. El Padrino was clearly not quite as good as he was that day and TCI was much fresher not having the race in between.

All in all, it was a great disguise of talent and will mean better odds on Derby Day. He obviously will need to work out a better trip, but with 5 weeks off going into it and then 3 months removed from his really big effort, he should be ready to run back to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

Not according to PA!

What trainers currently have or have EVER had Calvin as their first call jockey?

I eagerly await this list of names.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What trainers currently have or have EVER had Calvin as their first call jockey?

I eagerly await this list of names.

Cecil Borel

[turninforhome10]

Completely bashed Take Charge Indy in another thread. Spend the whole week building a method for playing the 3yo classics. Tuned it to 500 races, backtested it a for 3 horse exacta box

PP Name 130 230 330 430 E30 S1-2 s2-3 s3-4 SCORE
9 REVERON *24.02 48.04 72.64 97.99 *50.61 -0.00 1.32 1.60 3.92
3 TAKE CHARGE INDY 24.29 *48.04 *70.95 *96.28 50.17 0.15 0.30 3.46 3.37
5 Z CAMELOT 24.54 49.04 72.27 96.39 49.70 0.97 *-1.13 0.50 4.23
7 BARTOLOME 24.56 49.95 73.25 98.74 50.00 -0.59 0.29 2.29 5.77
6 UNION RAGS 24.66 48.44 72.45 96.29 49.81 -1.95 0.56 -0.43 3.66
1 FORT LOUDON 24.82 50.78 72.85 97.70 49.84 -2.13 0.72 1.50 6.24
8 EL PADRINO 24.86 50.31 73.47 96.92 49.68 -1.10 -0.16 *-1.93 5.56
4 NECK N NECK 24.93 50.81 72.69 97.07 49.55 -2.04 0.05 0.98 6.03
2 NEWS PENDING 25.98 50.76 72.21 96.67 50.02 *-2.33 1.23 0.87 6.23

130- Velocity based time estimate to first
230-2nd
330-3rd
430-4th
E30- Percent Pace energy calculation
S1-2 - Ground loss calculation 1 call-2nd call
S2-3 - Same for 2-3 call
S3-4- Same for 3-4 call
Score- Calculation based on weighing factors.

MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
3 TAKE CHARGE INDY 5.0 BOREL C. H. BYRNE P. B.
9 REVERON 12.0 TRUJILLO E. BEZARA A. C.
6 UNION RAGS 1.2 LEPAROUX J. R. MATZ M. R.
5 Z CAMELOT 50.0 BRAVO J. ROMANS D. L.
7 BARTOLOME 30.0 CASTANON J. L. GAROFFALO J.
8 EL PADRINO 2.0 CASTELLANO J. PLETCHER T. A.
1 FORT LOUDON 20.0 JURADO L. GOLD S. I.
4 NECK N NECK 20.0 PRADO E. S. WILKES I. R.
2 NEWS PENDING 8.0 MARAGH R. ROMANS D. L.
Method Success - - ROI 212.47 PCT WGR-1/23 $3 - 50 RACES 03-29-2012


So to sum up Karma, I congratulate those who backed Take Charge Indy as your reward was handsome. I learned a very valuable lesson about betting with the ego. Spent the whole week tweaking this method only to completely ignore it when the money was on the line. . Seeing Union Rags in the paddock and letting the commentary in the paddock filter in the subconscious, sold me on his being the big horse. All the while thinking Borel is gonna try to wire this. Falling back on my ego which already saw Argentine Tango run big earlier and already knowing what El Padrino did in LA, I dismissed the method I worked on all week and got all down on UR and News Pending.
Overcoming the ego is best done with objective data from observation not subjective data from imagination.