Part 2: SPEED

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by cj

1) The value of them now is knowing they are the #1 influence on betting in North America.

2) That will take many paragraphs that I will leave to thaskalos. Probably ten people could give ten different answers, and they might all be correct.

Agreed.
My questions still stand.
There is no reason for us to get side tracked on the value of Andy's contributions, which I bow down to.

Thaskalos opened the discussion on Speed Figures.
Perhaps, as PA suggested, this could be a thread in itself.

I asked:


1.Of what value are the Speed figures?
a. On dirt
b. On turf

2. How should we use them?

Those are the questions.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Light

I believe the first commercially published speed figs were not Beyers or the DRF. They were speed figs published by the old Racing Times. In 1992 The DRF bought the Racing Times and as a result started commercially publishing Beyer speed ratings that same year. This was obviously done to combat the popularity that the Racing Times had with their speed figures. My point is that the move by Beyer to have his speed figures commercially published came about due to the competition from the Racing Times.It was a business move, not a handicapping God saving horse players as you portray him.

IMO,the Racing Times did much more for the everyday average handicapper than Beyer ever did.It forced the hand of the DRF to make major changes and additions sorely needed for the survival of the horse player.

I wrote a short essay about speed and speed figures...and the post quoted above was your reply. There isn't a shred of truth in the entire post.

The only reason you even mentioned the Racing Times was because you thought that it featured different figures than Beyer's...so you could propose the ridiculous theory that Beyer rushed to publish his own figures because of the competition that the Racing Times presented with their own brand of figures.

This is why I stated that you "underestimated" the role that Beyer played in the improvement of the past performances.

I know you don't remember -- because if you did, then you would know that the figures in the Racing Times were Beyer's -- but when the Racing Times first came out...it was the BEYER figures that were the most advertised part of the publication. It was their most prized feature.

So, how can you give credit to the Racing Times...while denying the same credit to BEYER?

I repeat:

There were no other figures...it was Beyer all along.

HE brought professional-type speed figures to the public...which was my original statement, and the cause for you to post the reply highlighted above.

[cj]

Well said.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

My questions still stand.

Thaskalos opened the discussion on Speed Figures.
Perhaps, as PA suggested, this could be a thread in itself.

I asked:

1.Of what value are the Speed figures?
a. On dirt
b. On turf

2. How should we use them?

Those are the questions.

These are exactly the sort of questions I was looking forward to when I started this project...and I will answer as best I can.

1. Of what value are speed figures...on dirt and on turf?

The speed figures tell us how fast a horse ran in the past...given the circumstances it faced, in the particular races it found itself in. If the question is..."How fast did the horse run to the wire in its prior races?"...then the speed figures tell us that at a glance.

But if our question becomes..."Will we be able to make a long-term profit by just betting on these high-figure horses in their subsequent races?"...then the answer to that is...NO! Since these horses are overbet as a group...they can no longer be relied upon for long-term profits.

It has been widely reported -- even by Beyer himself -- that these speed figures are not at their best when handicapping races on the turf. The way these turf races are usually run brings certain pace-related factors into the equation, which the speed figures alone cannot account for.

2. How should we use them?

It depends on what your objective is...

If you are looking to profit from the game...then you can't just use these speed figures in isolation. You have to augment them with other, less obvious handicapping factors...in order to get an advantage over the betting public.

But this all comes with a considerable pricetag.

I use speed and pace figures in combination, in order to get a better understanding of the race...but that forces me to stay up handicapping races until 4 o'clock in the morning.

There is no free lunch...

[Fastracehorse]

The Beyer published in the form measures the time it took to go from start to finish. But, not all horses get the luxury of having an unimpeded trip in the 1 path. I'm not teaching you anything here

So, how does it affect the Beyer if the horse takes the 2,3, or, 4 path from start to finish? I have a measure for these.

The Beyer can also be adjusted for surface and distance switches. Eg., dirt sprint to turf route - with remarkable accuracy.

Alas, the Beyer can be adjusted with effectiveness for improving youngsters.

And of paramount importance - it can measure class discrepancies.

My point is not to say that I can adjust the Beyer; but to underscore that the nature of horse racing transcends the 'highest adjusted Beyer' in the race.

What the adjusted Beyer taught me is that horse racing is 'Universal'! Meaning that horseman everywhere go about their business of racing horses in very similar manners - with variations on themes - and that these themes are over 100 years old.

An example of a theme is firing third time off the lay-off.

So, while the Beyer is an amazing tool if used properly; it's ineffectiveness is ALSO an excellent teacher for the intangible substance called 'form'!

Form for me, while much harder to quantify than speed figures, is the most important aspect of the game. And while I'm sure you were planning on going there; I wanted to make the point that my immersion in Beyers (speed) was important for a deeper understanding of the game.

Thanx,

fffastt

[Robert Goren]

I believe that speed figures get a bad rap on turf races. It is true that they are not as useful a tool as on they are on the dirt, they are not totally worthless as some would have you believe.

[Light]

I don't mean to belabor the point, so rest assured this will be my last interruption with the Beyer point.

A little historical perspective:

Until recently we did not have speed figures,nor Lasix information nor specific class designations information among other things that we take for granted today. Before 1992, most "advanced" handicappers bought Beyer's books on how to make your own speed figs since they were not available in the DRF. We made track variants and did well with these. Armed with home made speed figs,the prices we got back then were huge overlays and we had a double advantage over users using a form with no speed figs. I thank Beyer for that valuable tool.

I still remember talking to my fellow cronies at the track back in the late 80's and early 90's. When I mentioned Beyer,most looked at me with a blank stare.
Today most handicappers know who Beyer is. He could probably be called the "father of speed figures".

But IMO,Beyer has his place in what he contributed to the sport. The DRF, owned By Rupert Murdoch at the time had a monopoly on racing information. Not good. There was no incentive for a Murdoch to change when he knows you need him. The same is true when anyone in power has a monopoly on a resource.

So give credit where credit is due. The Racing times was a catalyst for the DRF to change. The DRF was losing business to the Racing Times and it was hitting the DRF where it hurts. Today we have a horse players association to try to make changes. But there has never been a catalyst like the Racing Times to get important changes to the average horse player,taking him out of the dark ages and into the age of information.

Attributing the changes in the DRf to Beyer is nonsense. Beyer has his place but Beyer is a sub contractor to whatever paper wants to use his figures. He doesn't run the organization. BTW, Steven Crist also worked for the Racing times as editor-in-chief.

Today the DRF uses Beyers figures. You think he tells the DRF how to run their business? I wish he did,we'd probably have a better product. But that's not his business nor his place and the same was true when he made the figs for the Racing Times.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by Light

I don't mean to belabor the point, so rest assured this will be my last interruption with the Beyer point.

A little historical perspective:

Until recently we did not have speed figures,nor Lasix information nor specific class designations information among other things that we take for granted today. Before 1992, most "advanced" handicappers bought Beyer's books on how to make your own speed figs since they were not available in the DRF. We made track variants and did well with these. Armed with home made speed figs,the prices we got back then were huge overlays and we had a double advantage over users using a form with no speed figs. I thank Beyer for that valuable tool.

I still remember talking to my fellow cronies at the track back in the late 80's and early 90's. When I mentioned Beyer,most looked at me with a blank stare.
Today most handicappers know who Beyer is. He could probably be called the "father of speed figures".

But IMO,Beyer has his place in what he contributed to the sport. The DRF, owned By Rupert Murdoch at the time had a monopoly on racing information. Not good. There was no incentive for a Murdoch to change when he knows you need him. The same is true when anyone in power has a monopoly on a resource.

So give credit where credit is due. The Racing times was a catalyst for the DRF to change. The DRF was losing business to the Racing Times and it was hitting the DRF where it hurts. Today we have a horse players association to try to make changes. But there has never been a catalyst like the Racing Times to get important changes to the average horse player,taking him out of the dark ages and into the age of information.

Attributing the changes in the DRf to Beyer is nonsense. Beyer has his place but Beyer is a sub contractor to whatever paper wants to use his figures. He doesn't run the organization. BTW, Steven Crist also worked for the Racing times as editor-in-chief.

Today the DRF uses Beyers figures. You think he tells the DRF how to run their business? I wish he did,we'd probably have a better product. But that's not his business nor his place and the same was true when he made the figs for the Racing Times.

Time to let sleeping dogs die
Mac
Mac

[Light]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Time to let sleeping dogs die
Mac
Mac

That's what they do at the dog pound. The correct term is "Time to let sleeping dogs lie"

Sheesh.You can't even get that straight.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by Light

That's what they do at the dog pound. The correct term is "Time to let sleeping dogs lie"

Sheesh.You can't even get that straight.

You get the meaning i hope .
You cant teach a old dog new tricks.

Mac

[Light]

Originally Posted by bob60566

You get the meaning i hope .
You cant teach a old dog new tricks.

Mac

Yeah I get the meaning. You are calling me a dog. I bet you're a real nice guy too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Light

That's what they do at the dog pound. The correct term is "Time to let sleeping dogs lie"

Sheesh.You can't even get that straight.

Funny, you criticize a grammatical error, but it was okay for you to completely butcher your initial post about Beyer figures and the Racing Times. Apparently you read a Wiki page or something and think you are now an expert on a subject you were clueless about 24 hours ago. Any more posts off topic will be deleted.

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by cj

1) The value of them now is knowing they are the #1 influence on betting in North America.

2) That will take many paragraphs that I will leave to thaskalos. Probably ten people could give ten different answers, and they might all be correct.

I think things may be changing ever so slightly..In the past couple months I have seen a few horses with the highest Beyer in their last race and dropping in class win at 10/1 odds...When trying to figure out why I concluded it was because there were 2-3 red hot trainers in the race...seems like a lot of these trainers are taking all the money regardless of the Beyers...I know that betting hot trainers is nothing new and most of the horses from these trainers have high figures but I do see a lot of these stables getting all the action even on horses that don't look so good on form...sometimes the ML will have a horse listed as the favorite and I ask myself why and then notice it's a horse from a super trainer...so how much are these trainers changing the game? will it continue?

[cj]

I agree, people are betting the super trainers more and more, but probably not as much as they should the horse doesn't have the best Beyers. That is why many of them still show a flat bet positive ROI.

[Johnny V]

Originally Posted by cj

I agree, people are betting the super trainers more and more, but probably not as much as they should the horse doesn't have the best Beyers. That is why many of them still show a flat bet positive ROI.

Could you please clarify that statement for me. I don't quite get what you mean. Thanks.