Comparing Prime Power Ratings across early Belmont & final Belmont Brisnet pp's

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Bill, yes, I remember reading your post which had the bris power ratings analysis for the KY Derby.

I would assume the changes in the prime power ratings is due mainly to the impact of the changes in the RR and CR ratings.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by clicknow

So basically, weight adjustments for horse and jockey?

I don't think weight and jockeys have much of anything to do with the prime power ratings. Of the seven horses I mention at the top of this post, only Noble Indy has a mount change since its last race.

[Ribot Roboto]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I would assume it's mainly from the impact of the change in the RR and CR ratings.

It’s got to be something else. I have pp’s I downloaded on my phone on May 30 and they have identical everything as the ones out after the draw except for the ACL’s and of course the primes although not as different as the ones you cited. All the CR’s and RR’s are the same. Maybe there’s some sort of component to it that takes into account what other horses are doing that an entrant has already faced? The ACL is supposed to measure their competitive level so my guess is that it has to be something like that.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

IMaybe there’s some sort of component to it that takes into account what other horses are doing that an entrant has already faced?

That is exactly my guess for what accounts for the changes in the prime power ratings which also accounts for changes in the RR and CR ratings according to Brisnet's own past explanations.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

It’s got to be something else. I have pp’s I downloaded on my phone on May 30 and they have identical everything as the ones out after the draw except for the ACL’s and of course the primes although not as different as the ones you cited. All the CR’s and RR’s are the same. Maybe there’s some sort of component to it that takes into account what other horses are doing that an entrant has already faced? The ACL is supposed to measure their competitive level so my guess is that it has to be something like that.

Why not just ask BRISNET?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto

All the CR’s and RR’s are the same.

mine, too. same CRs and RRs.

Newest Bris of course reflects most recent works.

Another thing is strange is the the previous PP had Free Drop's May 28th work noted as sharp with a bullet.

On the newest PP, the bullet went away for that work

but the bullet for the most recent work bullet on June 3rd is there.


Yet for Restoring Hope, the previous bullet of May 22nd is listed on both the older and newer versions of the PPs---and ditto Noble Indy, he got to *keep* his bullet work from May 25th.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by clicknow

So basically, weight adjustments for horse and jockey?

Click, you are right: weight is one of the factors that Brisnet considers when computing the prime power ratings.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Why not just ask BRISNET?

It's there right on their site. By using dozens of factors including Brisnet CR, Brisnet Speed, Brisnet Pace, etc. based on a sample size of tens of thousands of races, just one number gives you predictive power roughly equal with favorites on dirt (31%).

The lowest M/L gives you about the same win percentage.

[clicknow]

bris also has noseda as gronk's trainer.

So far, workout mistakes (bullets missing) and wrong trainer listed.

[soonboomer]

I think that their class numbers and race ratings, which are part of the Prime Power number calculation, change as the horses they competed against progress or regress in future races. If a horse that horse A ran against last out ran a race after the early PP's came out, it could change horse A's prime power from the early to the current PP's. Clear as mud.

[Tom]

Does PP include PP and RS compared to current track profile?
How about works, or the other actual entrants in the race?

Just guessing.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by soonboomer

I think that their class numbers and race ratings, which are part of the Prime Power number calculation, change as the horses they competed against progress or regress in future races. If a horse that horse A ran against last out ran a race after the early PP's came out, it could change horse A's prime power from the early to the current PP's. Clear as mud.

in the case of the prime power stuff we are talking about, it's the advance PPs versus the latest ones, once post positions were assigned. The horses haven't raced at all in last 2 weeks.

[Ribot Roboto]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

It's there right on their site. By using dozens of factors including Brisnet CR, Brisnet Speed, Brisnet Pace, etc. based on a sample size of tens of thousands of races, just one number gives you predictive power roughly equal with favorites on dirt (31%).

The lowest M/L gives you about the same win percentage.

That’s just telling us some of the stuff that goes into figuring out their power rating. It doesn’t tell us what secret ingredient actually [I]changed[I] when the horses haven’t even been running. I’m sure whatever it is is objective at any rate, and actually pretty insignificant in my view. Of course if you win using it everyone’s going to want to know what they’re doing.

[Bill Cullen]

THE REASON THE ANGLE MIGHT HAVE LEGS IS THAT SEEING THE PROGRESSION OR REGRESSION IN THE EARLY PRIME POWER RATINGS TO THE LATEST ONES MIGHT GIVE SOME INDICATION OF AN ONGOING TREND THT IS STILL CONTINUING.


IF YOU ONLY LOOK AT THE FINAL PRIME POWER RATINGS, YOU HAVE NO SENSE OF THE TRAJECTORY ACROSS TIME OF THESE PRIME POWER RATINGS.


IF YOU COULD ALSO DETECT A MOVEMENT IN A CR AND/OR RR COMBINED WITH MOVEMENT IN THE PRIME POWER RATING, SO MUCH THE BETTER.


ONLY FOCUSED RESEARCH CAN ANSWER THE QUESTION ASSUMING SOMEONE HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY.

[clicknow]

It's an interesting angle.

Just don't know how much regression/progression can be depended on when using races that were run in utter slop and at shorter distances than the Belmont Stakes will be, esp. if it is on a dry track.