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06-05-2018, 10:19 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Comparing Prime Power Ratings across early Belmont & final Belmont Brisnet pp's
Early pp's: 161.9Justify 147.1Vino Rosso 144.7Bravazo 144.2Hofburg 143.3Noble Indy 142.4Tenfold 139.5Blended Citizen
Final pp's: 160.8Justify 147.3 Vino Rosso 145.2 Hofburg 144.4 Bravazo 142.9 Tenfold 140.8 Noble Indy 138.9 Blended Citizen
Regressing: Justify, Bravazo, Noble Indy, and Blended Citizen.
Progressing: Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
My bet: exacta box--> Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
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06-05-2018, 11:40 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
Early pp's: 161.9Justify 147.1Vino Rosso 144.7Bravazo 144.2Hofburg 143.3Noble Indy 142.4Tenfold 139.5Blended Citizen
Final pp's: 160.8Justify 147.3 Vino Rosso 145.2 Hofburg 144.4 Bravazo 142.9 Tenfold 140.8 Noble Indy 138.9 Blended Citizen
Regressing: Justify, Bravazo, Noble Indy, and Blended Citizen.
Progressing: Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
My bet: exacta box--> Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
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On Bris Vino Rosso "progressed" from his Wood number to his Derby Prime Power?
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06-06-2018, 12:12 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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My comparison is from the early brisnet pp's for the 2018 Belmont Stakes (downloaded 6/3) to the final version of the brisnet pp's for the 2018 Belmont Stakes (downloaded 6/5 when they have the post positions established and the M/L odds).
The prime power numbers change across time even when each of the horses have the same last race in both the early pp's and in the final pp's.
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06-06-2018, 01:27 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
My bet: exacta box--> Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
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My Belmont checklist came up with those as the top three (along with Bravazo tied for third spot).
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06-06-2018, 01:31 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
My Belmont checklist came up with those as the top three (along with Bravazo tied for third spot).
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Great minds think alike,
OR
Misery loves company!
Good luck!
Bill C
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06-06-2018, 05:20 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Cool angle. 
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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06-06-2018, 05:36 PM
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#7
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Domo Arigato
Join Date: May 2018
Location: Louisville
Posts: 54
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What happened to create the different numbers? Better calculators? 
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06-06-2018, 05:43 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Cool angle. |
Thanks.
There a similar earlier post that used the same approach for the K. Derby and picked out four horses improving on the prime power and two of those were Justify and Good Magic.
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06-06-2018, 05:45 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ribot Roboto
What happened to create the different numbers? |
I would assume it's mainly from the impact of the change in the RR and CR ratings.
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06-06-2018, 05:51 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
Early pp's: 161.9Justify 147.1Vino Rosso 144.7Bravazo 144.2Hofburg 143.3Noble Indy 142.4Tenfold 139.5Blended Citizen
Final pp's: 160.8Justify 147.3 Vino Rosso 145.2 Hofburg 144.4 Bravazo 142.9 Tenfold 140.8 Noble Indy 138.9 Blended Citizen
Regressing: Justify, Bravazo, Noble Indy, and Blended Citizen.
Progressing: Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
My bet: exacta box--> Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and Tenfold.
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What races Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, and Hofburg's based on?
If the Derby, they are meaningless.
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06-06-2018, 06:07 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon
What races Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, and Hofburg's based on?
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On their current prime power ratings in the final version of the Brisnet pp's for the Belmont stakes as compared to their former prime power ratings in the earlier version of the Brisnet pp's for the Belmont Stakes.
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06-06-2018, 06:18 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,012
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What do you do with Free Drop Billy , Restoring Hope and Gronkowski?
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06-06-2018, 06:51 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brooklyn, New York
Posts: 1,726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bennie
What do you do with Free Drop Billy , Restoring Hope and Gronkowski?
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Free Drop Billy and Restoring Hope both regressed.
Gronkowski had no prime power rating at all.
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06-06-2018, 06:55 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
On their current prime power ratings in the final version of the Brisnet pp's for the Belmont stakes as compared to their former prime power ratings in the earlier version of the Brisnet pp's for the Belmont Stakes.
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Bill, yes, I remember reading your post which had the bris power ratings analysis for the KY Derby.
Last edited by clicknow; 06-06-2018 at 06:56 PM.
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06-06-2018, 06:58 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Cullen
I would assume it's mainly from the impact of the change in the RR and CR ratings.
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So basically, weight adjustments for horse and jockey?
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