a lot to like about Vino Rosso here...

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

step 2 toss the bums B̶A̶N̶D̶U̶A̶, F̶R̶E̶E̶ ̶D̶R̶O̶P̶ ̶B̶I̶L̶L̶Y̶

Leaving Free Drop Billy off trifecta/superfecta would be a mistake, IMHO. I guess I am one of the few people (if there are any at all!) who like him.

I don't think Bandua is coming, so no comment on him for now.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Leaving Free Drop Billy off trifecta/superfecta would be a mistake, IMHO. I guess I am one of the few people (if there are any at all!) who like him.

FDB should be a nice price, so if you like anything about him have to use him.

[GMB@BP]

Shows you how much I know everytime FDB runs I keep thinking he should turn back, yet they keep sending him further. gotta trust Romans I guess.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶

Hofburg scares me a little.

His 'price' is going to be really bad. He may even be 3rd choice in here. Not as bad as My Boy Jack, but he's kind of going to be the 'My Boy Jack' of the Belmont betting action. Thank goodness his name isn't a little bit more catchy.

But there's a reasonable chance that he's thriving.
He was a key for me in the Florida Derby. I had him running better than Promises Fulfilled on Fountain of Youth day. I REALLY liked that win from the wide post vs. Just Whistle. His value was supposed to be 'ripe'. Then Hofburg's price in the Florida Derby was worse than I had hoped. He was fifth-choice but only about 9/1. Exacta and Superfecta were just 'OK'.

He got a DREAM trip in the Florida Derby and didn't really move forward. Yet, now everyone was singing his praises.

Traffic in the Derby, but he got a belated trip into closer-friendly late flow. He did show good energy. He won the gallop-out but part of that was jockey frustration from being bottled up while having enough horse to finish 4th or 5th.
Now his value is very poor. Hes the horse casual players are going to gravitate to from the new faces. I've already seen Bob Neumeier picking him on top, and Jeff Sigel, John White, and Dick Jerardi picking him 2nd in the early wagering guide.

He's logical and he has 'trouble' lines on form, but we don't really know that he's any better than say Tenfold, Blended Citizen or Seahenge, but he'll be a lower price.

Usually the type of horse I exclude.

Have to consider grudgingly including Hofburg if I'm not willing to sacrifice hit% for value.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hofburg scares me a little.

He's logical and he has 'trouble' lines on form, but we don't really know that he's any better than say Tenfold, Blended Citizen or Seahenge, but he'll be a lower price.

Usually the type of horse I exclude.

Have to consider grudgingly including Hofburg if I'm not willing to sacrifice hit% for value.

I like him but totally agree with you. The most skittish thing for me about him is that he hasn't won a legit (graded) race.

I was talking to Roman the other day and he has always liked the pedigree, but he doesn't necessarily like 3x3 for him here out of AP Indy. Maybe it's too close of a genetic convergence? Not sure.

Right now the most interesting horses for me are:

Hofburg, for reasons above, and I also don't like the wise guy type odds we'll see, like you

Vino Rosso, because of Pletcher, G1 win and the Preakness skip

Blended Citizen, for many reasons, including rest and track

Noble Indy, for forward placement or pace reasons, as well as 40-1+



Horses like Bravazo seem like a fade the public classic

[metro]

Originally Posted by clicknow

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

Thomas' comments about the filtration process and how the longer distance races will allow him to "filter and dial in" were what I found interesting. Agree that he's not a win type but if we get an American Pharoah type performance from Justify, Vinno Rosso could be the Keen Ice plodding type to help fill out the exotics.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by metro

Thomas' comments about the filtration process and how the longer distance races will allow him to "filter and dial in" were what I found interesting. Agree that he's not a win type but if we get an American Pharoah type performance from Justify, Vinno Rosso could be the Keen Ice plodding type to help fill out the exotics.

I guess I have to stick him on my ticket somewhere---I'll be kicking myself for doing it and kicking myself for not doing it.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Vino Rosso, because of Pletcher, G1 win and the Preakness skip

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶

Vino Rosso will be an underlay pretty shortly once the talking heads start in with their predictions.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot.

My mistake, I meant a major graded stakes race (Wood)

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hofburg scares me a little.

His 'price' is going to be really bad. He may even be 3rd choice in here. Not as bad as My Boy Jack, but he's kind of going to be the 'My Boy Jack' of the Belmont betting action. Thank goodness his name isn't a little bit more catchy.

He has "Giacomo" kind of name. It would be humorous to hear the annoucer call his name in the same fashion, out of nowhere. "Aaaaand it's Hofburg"

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Wood is a G2.

Vino won a G2 and 2 maiden races at short distances. He ran 3rd in a G3.

Neither Pletcher horse has won a G1. That puts them in about the same place as most everyone else in the field (belmont is a very weird race isn't it).

There are only 2 horses in the field who have won G1 races. One of them is one of Robert's designated "bums" that I like a whole lot.

I don't trust the Graded race ratings for 3 year-olds. Have to look at those races very specifically IMO. Good horses lost to lesser horses, all those races are mixed bags with horses with capabilites that were/are just showing.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

He has "Giacomo" kind of name. It would be humorous to hear the annoucer call his name in the same fashion, out of nowhere. "Aaaaand it's Hofburg"

I can picture that.

"Justify in the lead, he's going to have to DIG DEEP!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLOSING THE GAP,
Bravazo 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG! HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD!!!"

[Robert Fischer]

I like Vino Rosso, but I have to be honest. I don't know for sure.

He's got some of the most ambiguous form.

The Tampa races were both extremely slow paces/forward-favoring-flows that hurt him.

The Wood was a dream trip that exaggerated his ability.

The Derby looks like a race you draw a line through.

He works in the morning like he's the best 3yo in the TAP barn, but I'd take all the money I've lost on workouts, over all the winnings I've had on workouts, in a heartbeat...

[jay68802]

It could be this:

"Justify in the lead, he's going to have to DIG DEEP!
(announcer completely misses Hofburg closing up the rail)
"Vino Rosso is 2nd, grinding down the middle of the track,
CLOSING THE GAP,
Bravazo 3rd, then it's Tenfo Aaaaand it's HOFBURG? HOFBURG HAS TAKEN THE LEAD???"