Noble Indy in the Belmont...thoughts

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He was the only horse sans Justify to be up front in a hot pace and hold on.

what race are you talking about, he was beat 45 lengths in the derby, in fact promises fulfilled finished ahead of him.


While he can be a problem I suppose for Justify pending the draw I see no scenario where he can be up front and win.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

what race are you talking about, he was beat 45 lengths in the derby, in fact promises fulfilled finished ahead of him.


While he can be a problem I suppose for Justify pending the draw I see no scenario where he can be up front and win.

Most folks are perfectly happy drawing a line through the Kentucky Derby, particularly an E/P7 type coming out of the 19 hole. Many good horses have tanked that race. I'd recommend looking at the Louisiana Derby. The Brisnet E1 and E2 ratings were the 2nd best of all dirt preps. Only cheap speed Promises Fulfilled had higher in FL Derby. Noble Indy won his 9F race going fast early while holding off a couple decent closers suggesting he is not cheap speed. TimeformUS also rated the LA Derby a 143 quarter and 140 half and 126 three-quarter which are respectable figures that approximate the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, he got slow at the end but so did Justify his last two outings. I only illustrate Noble Indy can carry this field for a mile or more if that is the tactic. It's not a terrible Belmont strategy. A win wouldn't be all that shocking but I figure he's Belmont's version of Good Magic helping set the stage for Vino Rosso or Blended Citizen who seem like the types that can keep grinding or a Hofburg who can outright close.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

gUyS I hAcKeD into the laptop of the world's greatest handicapper and got his kentucky derby profile for Noble Indy
…….
this message will SeLf DeStRuCt !!

Before this message goes poof, could you hack that expert's computer again and tell us what he thought of this horse?
Thanks

[boys at tosconova]

make no bones about it. if justy isn't spent from the preakness he lays over this field in a big way.

but if he is the grouping of 8-10 horses look to be fairly matched for the most part imo. do i think noble is as fast as justy,..no. but he looks just as good +/- as every other horse for xyz reasons.

i mean, outside of justy the top third of the derby horses aren't even in here. bravazo being 2nd choice is weak as well.

look at all the probable closers going to the belmont.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Most folks are perfectly happy drawing a line through the Kentucky Derby, particularly an E/P7 type coming out of the 19 hole. Many good horses have tanked that race. I'd recommend looking at the Louisiana Derby. The Brisnet E1 and E2 ratings were the 2nd best of all dirt preps. Only cheap speed Promises Fulfilled had higher in FL Derby. Noble Indy won his 9F race going fast early while holding off a couple decent closers suggesting he is not cheap speed. TimeformUS also rated the LA Derby a 143 quarter and 140 half and 126 three-quarter which are respectable figures that approximate the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, he got slow at the end but so did Justify his last two outings. I only illustrate Noble Indy can carry this field for a mile or more if that is the tactic. It's not a terrible Belmont strategy. A win wouldn't be all that shocking but I figure he's Belmont's version of Good Magic helping set the stage for Vino Rosso or Blended Citizen who seem like the types that can keep grinding or a Hofburg who can outright close.

Nice post, informative.

Looks like we've got ourselves a hoss' race then!

~

Pletcher finds himself in a few interesting positions these past few days. With Audible, horse runs third in the Kentucky, Pletcher explains the horse is not at his best, pulls him from the Belmont; likely some unknown conversations going on there considering Justify and Audible have similar connections.


Enter Repole and Noble Indy, horse fiinished up the track in the Kentucky; works in 47, Pletcher explains horse is ready off that one work. It would have been interesting to listen in on the conversation between Repole / Pletcher and their race strategy against Justify . . .

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Before this message goes poof, could you hack that expert's computer again and tell us what he thought of this horse?
Thanks

Creator was a stone-cold closer who could run all day.

The more pace and the more distance, the better.

Vaguely similar to Vino Rosso.

Had a dream trip in the Arkansas Derby and got a better trip(and a very nice ride by Irad Ortiz) than Destin to win a mediocre edition of the Belmont.

I have no idea of Creator's physical issues and conformation but based purely on his pedigree, physical appearance, and his racing form(even with the lack of speed), he's interesting as a stallion. I think he's only like $17,500 or something so he could be a budget Tapit style stallion, but he's in Japan. Our Belmont stakes seems really open to foreign invaders most years. It 'seems' like a decent idea for someone over there to bring along say three or four sons of Creator in a crop over there while pointing the most interesting to an eventual run at a piece of the Belmont Stakes. But, maybe it's a dumb idea.

Anyway that's my take on Creator.

[classhandicapper]

I thought Noble Indy was a lot better than the consensus view going into the Derby. The Louisiana Derby was not the strongest field, but Bravazo was also near that fast pace and he collapsed. He has since proven to be a pretty good horse. Noble Indy kept running in that race and was very game coming again. I think you should just draw a line through his Derby. It was a sloppy track and he was hung out 4 wide the entire race chasing that very fast pace from post 19.

Of course there's a difference between that and saying he can win the Belmont going 12F, but I think he's a good horse.

[boys at tosconova]

speaking of repole. remember when stay thirsty finished 2nd at pretty big odds in the belmont?

he still couldn't beat the bigger head scratcher in ruler on ice....even that turf horse brlllant speed ran well

that was a painless defeat.....lol

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

speaking of repole. remember when stay thirsty finished 2nd at pretty big odds in the belmont?

he still couldn't beat the bigger head scratcher in ruler on ice....even that turf horse brlllant speed ran well

that was a painless defeat.....lol

I think it goes back to the Belmont not always being the best race to judge talent and ability. Sometimes it does but percentage wise the race can produce some very poor winners (and runner ups I suppose).

[PoloUK6108]

I look for him to run big, if not pull the upset. His Fairgrounds win just sticks with me for whatever reason. Lost a few bucks on him Derby day, but drawing a line through it. Seems to be working very well. Hopefully Geroux can ride again, I cant think of many who are riding better. Plus, he fell out of the irons last year, I doubt he's forgotten haha.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

my thoughts are that is is the booby prize to audible.

what i really want to know is the juicy kickbacks going to and from for not running audible

Kickbacks from who? Themselves?

I know I'm late to this, so I probably missed something.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Kickbacks from who? Themselves?

I know I'm late to this, so I probably missed something.

Yes PA, they had a ultra secret meeting somewhere in Kentucky, that had two pointy things and a green and brown oval in the middle. They voted to give give each other $1,000,000,000.00 not to run Audible.

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

go toe to toe all the way around the race track and lose by a length or so?

If he goes all out with Justify he will need oxygen at the QP. How does he win, whats the scenario?

I think the scenario for him to win would be Justify on the lead with him sitting just off of a slow pace, and justify stopping on his own and NI being able to go all the way.

Im going to take a chance with him.

[Blenheim]

I don't believe he is the race to win the race, rather he is in the race to do the best he can to prevent Justify from winning. He is training right up to the task. The horse already possesses speed, I believe someone posted 5 speed points which is good early speed augmented by his last 4fl work in 47 flat; that's fast.

What makes him more compelling as the wabbit is his last work on the training track. The tr.t are deeper than the main so his mile work in 1:42 or thereabouts is actually 1:40 or thereabouts, 12.5 seconds a panel. So not only is he gonna pressure Justify early, but he is fit to pressure him for I figure for at least 9 maybe 10 furlongs; whatever it takes to get Justify to start backing up.

Interestingly, Noble Indy possesses the qualities of class not found in some of others in this race: stamina, endurance, courage, determination and late drive. W/those qualities and some of the others lacking, I think he might hold on to get a piece of it.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

I think the scenario for him to win would be Justify on the lead with him sitting just off of a slow pace, and justify stopping on his own and NI being able to go all the way.

Im going to take a chance with him.

Well I agree that is the only sensible scenario but I think I was replying to him being a rabbit type runner.