Justify’s Form Cycling Downward

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Obviously, you have not looked at Blended Citizen's works as of late.

He has one work since his last race.

He is not "breezing".

Every work he's recorded in the past 60 days has been designated "breezing" by the clockers (at 4 different race tracks).

He has been doing what is basically interval training.

How's that? He has one timed workout per week on average.

[Blenheim]

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

[RunForTheRoses]

YouTube

[cj]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by cj

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I found Justify's BRIS E1 and LP in the Baltimore interesting compared to his previous three races. Generally, for most horses, when the E1 goes up the LP goes down and versa vice. In the Baltimore, he ran slower than ever early and late.


Did he hit rock bottom w/the LP 83?


Baltimore - 98/107/83
Kentucky - 100/102/92
California - 100/105/117
OC75 - 107/117/88

maybe he wants a fast track?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Just food for thought, the last fraction for the Derby is only two furlongs, while the last fraction for the Preakness is 3.5 furlongs. On the TimeformUS adjusted fractions, which take into account things like track speed and the different track configurations, they look like this from the mile point to the wire:

Derby: 25.22
Preakness: 19.34 (25.79 converted to 1/4 mile)

If you go from the 6f pole to the wire:

Derby: 51.08
Preakness: 43.90 (50.17 converted to a half mile)

I post this to point out comparing those late ratings is apples to oranges, far apart in distance.

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

Yeah, I use pace figures in some sprints, and calculate my own sustained pace numbers for turf routes. And while I do the best I can with those numbers, the reality is that my pace numbers would work best if every sprint race were a 6 furlong sprint and my sustained pace numbers would work best if every turf route was a mile.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is part of the problem for Sartin and Brohammer style velocity ratings, the distance changes are like you said sometimes apples and oranges.

I'm assuming that the LP numbers are scaled so that a 92 LP at 1 1/4 at CD is comparable to a 92 LP at 1 3/16 at PIM. Now that doesn't mean that a horse that is capable of running a 92 LP at one track and distance is capable of the same feat at another track and distance. You have to make subjective judgements. That is why it is called handicapping.

I will say that I don't trust the Brisnet numbers for Justify from the SA Derby. They seem artificially inflated to me (it seems to happen every year with a few of the 3yo Derby prep races, especially AQU). As far as the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are concerned, on the average, sloppy tracks tend to lead to races that go out faster than normal and slow down in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

maybe he wants a fast track?

Someone whose opinion I respect a lot believes he's been winning by overcoming the off tracks and will appreciate a fast track more.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Someone whose opinion I respect a lot believes he's been winning by overcoming the off tracks and will appreciate a fast track more.

Unlike perhaps Bravazo... romps on mud when horse hasn't accomplished much in career are very suspect. I hope he takes a lot of money but I doubt there is a win in there anywhere.

[Robert Fischer]

he'll win easier in the Belmont mostly because of his hoof issue being well-controlled and being closer to 100% physical condition than he was leading up to the Preakness.

but yes, the narrative will be that he loved the fast track


adding: And lol, yes, maybe Bravazo who was 4th best in the Preakness (1-Justify, 2-GM, 3-Tenfold, 4-Bravazo)... will flatten-out and finish 6th or whatever, and his narrative will be that he's a mudder

[Blenheim]

Can't take nothin' away from Justify, he earned his right to run for the Triple and as a fan of the game, I like the idea as it is always good to have a run for the Crown and no doubt the Park will fill to capacity . . . NY, NY.

That 4fl work in 46.80 was sweet, but please show me the statistics and where it is written that one work will reverse a downward trending form cycle. Furthermore, he did that work at CD, lickety split fast track particularly on that day as Baffert thanked the trackman for settin' it up for him and Justify's suspect left rear - kinda bouncy I think the track was; he ran his last two on wet fast and as a speed horse he has caught all the good breaks, but now he is headed to NY, NY and Big Sandy . . . read Repole's NY, NY isn't particularly kind to strangers and that racetrack surface is kinda tiring and known to take a few good horses down.

Downward cycle, tiring surface couple that w/a NYorker who is bent on sending Baffert packin' and I think we've got ourselves a hoss race! Did I mention Repole was sending Noble Indy on a kamikaze mission? The draw is absolutely critical in this one as game over should Justify draw to the inside of Noble Indy.

The drama continues to thicken . . . nothin' like the Belmont Stakes.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Downward cycle, tiring surface couple that w/a NYorker who is bent on sending Baffert packin' and I think we've got ourselves a hoss race! Did I mention Repole was sending Noble Indy on a kamikaze mission? Safe money bet that he will.

With a setup like this I am thinking its second mortgage time!!!!!!

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

With a setup like this I am thinking its second mortgage time!!!!!!

I wouldn't go that far, but ya' gotta figure if those two go, they both flame out, leaving the board wide open.