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Old 05-23-2018, 06:34 PM   #16
dilanesp
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Good post. I miss Roman's site. I recall Chrome was practically handed the trophy then only hit the bottom of super courtesy of a DH. American Pharoah aside, the Belmont has been extremely kind to bettors going against a Crown contender. This feels like another year to go for those boxcars.
Well, let's go through all of them in the last 30 years:

Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Sunday Silence- finished 2nd, beaten about 8 lengths, to Easy Goer, a logical horse who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Sunday Silence had an excellent career including a win in the BC Classic and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Silver Charm- finished 2nd, beaten a length or so, to Touch Gold, a logical horse who had a bad trip in the Preakness and might have been the best horse in that race. Silver Charm had an excellent career including the Dubai World Cup and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.
Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.
War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.
Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.
Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Big Brown- did not finish, as Da Tara went wire to the wire as an absolute shocking longshot winner and then never won another race of consequence. I think Big Brown came back to win the Haskell before retirement, but we have no idea how good he really was.
California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.
American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.

So usually the TC horse loses the Belmont, even if he is really good. And the Belmont upsetter is usually either a logical horse who did well in the other legs of the TC or a late bloomer. If you are looking for a bomb, Da Tara and Sarava are your precedents.
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Old 05-23-2018, 08:51 PM   #17
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Still waiting to see who else enters, but I am looking for a wire to wire win by Justify by open lengths. The track and GM dictated he distribute his energy so early. It won't happen in the Belmont.
And SMith is no stranger o the track - a huge factor.
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Old 05-23-2018, 09:01 PM   #18
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Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.
Alysheba also didn't receive Lasix, which I think was one of the excuses for his performance, although it didn't seem to be a problem later in his career.

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Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.
Real Quiet also took down the 1999 Pimlico Special over Silver Charm's arch rival Free House. That means Real Quiet won twice as many Grade 1s as Silver Charm after their respective Triple Crown bids.

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Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.
Lemon Drop Kid was a Grade 1 winner at 2 and ran in the BC Juvenile, which was a very productive race for Classic winners in the '80s and '90s.

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War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.
War Emblem had a horrendous start in the Belmont. I think Baffert got a $50K appearance fee by starting War Emblem in the Haskell later that summer.

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Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.
Funny Cide ran 3rd, eventual Travers winner Ten Most Wanted ran 2nd. I think Funny Cide worked 5f in something like :58+ a couple of days before the race. Barclay Tagg was not happy.

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Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Birdstone was a Grade 1 winner at 2 and was among the favorites for the BC Juvenile but was held out of the race by Nick Zito because he didn't want to ship to California. He was also the early winter book favorite for the Derby after the ho-hum Action This Day won the BC Juvenile.

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California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.
California Chrome got stepped on coming out the gate and had a decent heel bulb laceration as a result.

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American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.
Assault won 5 of 7 starts in top class company at 4 and developed a rivalry with Stymie while carrying weights in excess of 130 lbs.

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Old 05-23-2018, 09:03 PM   #19
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Still waiting to see who else enters, but I am looking for a wire to wire win by Justify by open lengths. The track and GM dictated he distribute his energy so early. It won't happen in the Belmont.
And SMith is no stranger o the track - a huge factor.
Don't know about wire to wire my friend but at the 3/8 "Big Money" Mike will let him go. IMO, if the track is dry he will show an unbelievable turn of foot.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:39 PM   #20
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Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:50 PM   #21
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Silver Charm did win the G1 Dubai World Cup.
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Old 05-23-2018, 11:59 PM   #22
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Don't know about wire to wire my friend but at the 3/8 "Big Money" Mike will let him go. IMO, if the track is dry he will show an unbelievable turn of foot.
I see that he took today off - 4 in a row.
Still got my thumb on the wad......
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Old 05-24-2018, 12:10 AM   #23
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Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.
Equibase has the Strub as a G2 by then.
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Old 05-24-2018, 01:00 AM   #24
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Spalding:

Didn't Silver Charm win the Strub? I think I saw him do it.

He also won a bunch of other graded races at 4. RQ just won 2.
Yes, Silver Charm ran in all 3 legs of the Strub Series, missing by a 1/2 length in his comeback in the 7 furlong Malibu before taking the other 2 legs. He won 6 of 9 starts at 4, but tailed off badly at 5 and was retired mid-season.

Real Quiet only lasted 5 races at 4 and the Hollywood Gold Cup was his last race. He was hurt in a workout before the Pacific Classic.
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Old 05-24-2018, 08:40 AM   #25
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Silver Charm - the good old days, when horses raced often, and fast.

Unlike today, when we get excited over a stinking 107 Beyer.
Take a look at the cover of Joe Cardelo's book - Speed to Spare.
That tells you what racing has become today.
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Old 05-24-2018, 10:22 AM   #26
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It is hard to detect declining form. The one time I used it successfully was Lost In The Fog's Breeder's cup loss at Belmont in 2005. Lost In The Fog was a pure speed demon. Up to this loss he had won 10 straight sprints. He always took the lead and nearly always had a bullet work prior to the race. He was the favorite in every race he attempted. His work out before the Belmont race was much slower than normal. As you probably know he died a few months later with massive cancer tumors.
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Old 05-24-2018, 10:33 AM   #27
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When the crown is on the line, there is no coronation when there are more than 8 entries.
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Old 05-24-2018, 10:51 AM   #28
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I see that he took today off - 4 in a row.
Still got my thumb on the wad......
He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:54 AM   #29
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He had a suspension to serve, two days this week I think.
No, Justify took the day off.
They kept him in the barn.
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Old 05-24-2018, 11:57 AM   #30
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One need not need a bomb on top to get paid well in the Belmont but one does typically need the chalk to fall out of the exacta, or better, miss the board entirely to get the boxcar. The payouts have historically been decent even with the logical second choice on top. I have noted the payouts for $2 in bold. Some are certainly better than others. In several cases the trifecta yielded exponential results. I'm sure the horizontal wagers follow suit.

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Well, let's go through all of them in the last 30 years:

Alysheba- finished 4th, beaten something like 14 lengths. The winner was a logical horse, Bet Twice, who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Alyhseba proved to be a tremendous racehorse and would have been a worthy TC winner.

$77.80 Exacta $472 Trifecta

Sunday Silence- finished 2nd, beaten about 8 lengths, to Easy Goer, a logical horse who had finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Sunday Silence had an excellent career including a win in the BC Classic and would have been a worthy TC winner.

$8.80 Exacta $152 Trifecta

Silver Charm- finished 2nd, beaten a length or so, to Touch Gold, a logical horse who had a bad trip in the Preakness and might have been the best horse in that race. Silver Charm had an excellent career including the Dubai World Cup and would have been a worthy TC winner.

Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $23.80

Real Quiet- finished 2nd, beaten a nose, to Victory Gallop, a logical horse who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness. Real Quiet did win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 4 but would have been a bit of a thin TC winner.

Exacta $17.60 Trifecta $275

Charismatic- finished 3rd, beaten a couple of lengths, to Lemon Drop Kid, who hadn't done much before the Belmont but was a late bloomer. Charismatic was injured in the race and retired. We don't know how good he would have been.

Exacta $1537 Trifecta $5343

War Emblem- finished up the track to Sarava, a huge longshot who never did anything of note before or after the Belmont. War Emblem was kind of a fraud and I am glad he didn't win the TC.

Exacta $2454 Trifecta $25209

Funny Cide- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Empire Maker, a logical horse who had beaten him in the Wood Memorial, was one of the favorites in the Derby, and finished in the money before being freshened. Funny Cide was a gelding and had a fairly long career but didn't really distinguish himself.

Exacta $44 Trifecta $67.50

Smarty Jones- finished second, beaten a length or so, to Birdstone, who was a late bloomer like Lemon Drop Kid was and who went on to win the Travers. Smarty Jones was retired for an alleged injury / for breeding value after the Belmont, so we don't know if he would have turned out any good or not.
Big Brown- did not finish, as Da Tara went wire to the wire as an absolute shocking longshot winner and then never won another race of consequence. I think Big Brown came back to win the Haskell before retirement, but we have no idea how good he really was.

Exacta $139 Trifecta $1589

California Chrome- finished 4th in a blanket finish, won by Tonalist, another late bloomer type like Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone. Tonalist turned out to be a nice New York stakes horse. California Chrome would have been a deserving TC winner and turned out to have a long career including a win and a second place finish in the Dubai World Cup, 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the BC Classic, and a smashing win over Beholder in the Pacific Classic. Probably going to the Hall of Fame.

Exacta $348 Trifecta $6781

American Pharoah- won the Belmont wire to wire. Not in the first tier of TC winners, but he won the BC Classic and was better than Sir Barton, Omaha, and Assault.

Exacta $13.60 Trifecta $285

So usually the TC horse loses the Belmont, even if he is really good. And the Belmont upsetter is usually either a logical horse who did well in the other legs of the TC or a late bloomer. If you are looking for a bomb, Da Tara and Sarava are your precedents.
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