2018 Preakness Post Positions & ML Odds

[SecretAgentMan]

1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 12-1

2. Lone Sailor, Tom Amoss, Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1

3. Sporting Chance, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

4. Diamond King, John Servis, Javier Castellano, 30-1

5. Good Magic, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 3-1

6. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 20-1

7. Justify, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 1-2

8. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 20-1

[Hoops McCann]

lucky number

again

[Fightingirish51195]

Sporting chance is going to gun

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Sporting chance is going to gun

That would be the ideal thing for the favorite, he can then track him and not have to work to much about being pushed, I guess Bravazo could move up 3 wide early, a death move but you never know.

[ldiatone]

i like QUIP

[clicknow]

Only way to play this is as part of a pick, but I don't play Pimlico and don't really feel like capping the whole card.

I'm going to make 2 really cheap wagers.

One exacta where Good Magic plays Exaggerator and Bravazo plays Oxbow (keys). (lightning stiking in same place twice deal).

The other is a pedigree wet track angle I'm playing around with: box justify, quip, tenfold and good magic, and hope the 2nd horse isn't chalky.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Making 1 bet, and 1 bet only playing against the 1/2 chalk with a bad hoof and the 3/1 second choice who has been near max effort in back to back races. Looking for chaos with a small bet.



$4 Ex / ($24)

[f2tornado]

I’m betting the race light. On paper it’s a race I should hammer but I have a knack of screwing up the Preakness. I’ll start with $4 tri // =$24. Maybe a $1 version flipping the place and show horses =$6. I’ll add to bottom of 50 cent super play =$12. I will take one mild $8 swing at the Hi5. Maybe play small exacta with under the chalks. I could see that one pop at this distance and could be there if one of the favorites misfires. I’ll also play $4 Sara Street over the BES/Preakness double =$8. Cap it off with a $10 win bet on the which is refundable if he comes in second couresty of TwinSpires promo.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Sporting chance is going to gun

Or, more likely he sits in the gate after it opens and refuses to run.

[Tom]

1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 12-1

Shades of Deputed Testamony?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ex/Tri/Super

over

I want Justify to win so it will make the Belmont more interesting.

[MadVindication]

I like Bravazo at 8. Bravazo did well covering ground in the derby. Justify will be out of the way.

I like Tenfold at 6.

I'm liking DK for his E/P running style and post between sporting chance and GM. I'm going to bet him in some way. I think he's a better chance than Quip. I don't like the rail spot and early runners in this race with this field. And I looooove E/P long shots with a good late pace figure. I think DK could thwart LS from hitting 3rd or 4th. But Tenfold has the better late pace rating. So with TF and DK I'm leaning toward LS not hitting the super.

Going to narrow down some tri and super bets and have my favourite ones as at least $1 bets. Spending less than 40$ on this.

Not personally sold on Good Magic getting 2nd but it's high chance so will bet some exacta boxing him with Justify but want to figure some tri's and supers with the long shots to place as well.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

I like Bravazo at 8. Bravazo did well covering ground in the derby.

I remember the reasoning I used to pick Oxbow, watching race replays ---and esp. his rounding the last turn at CDX in the Derby. I should have hit the ATM that day for the Preakness, I was quite sure that he would run 1st or 2nd.

So that's why I have Bravazo playing Oxbow in this race as posted above....similar pedigree, similar campaigns, etc. But again, it's lightning striking same place type of wager. In other words, a real reach.

One thing I give OP horses is that they are pretty fit after coming off that track whether they win there or not.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

Or, more likely he sits in the gate after it opens and refuses to run.

I like his inconsistencies. If he fancies running that day he will beat Quip and Lone Sailor

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by clicknow

So that's why I have Bravazo playing Oxbow in this race as posted above....similar pedigree, similar campaigns, etc. But again, it's lightning striking same place type of wager. In other words, a real reach.

Yes, good reason to bet him as any others. Better reason to bet him as an upset pick to beat GM or, for the hell of it, Justify. At least we've seen he can significantly improve, unlike more consistent runners. Hopefully his odds don't shorten much. It's funny to me that Quip is the mid odds horse here.