and it onto the Preakness... - Page 4 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

storyline · 05-06-2018, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Why do you care about this? When comparing a matchup to another horse next time is all I care about as a player. Why is this a disservice? Why are you so emotionally invested in a single horse? You must not be a player because only teenage girls act this way towards things. Cry some more for me pumpkin!

Are you seriously that obtuse?

storyline · 05-06-2018, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

Beyers are based on final time only, take into account the pace and that number is solid, if not impressive.

Historically 104 beyer is the benchmark for derby winners - personally I don't subscribe to them but they're a great variable to use when calculated either too high or too low.....

CincyHorseplayer · 05-06-2018, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by storyline

Are you seriously that obtuse?

Yes. I love the horses. I don't bet anything else, the horses are the appeal. But I'm a player and I don't get into the state of mind you are in regarding the horses. You are taking a figure for a horse personally. I think the public butthurt just shows you are not much of a player but definitely fanboy emotional teenage girl mentality central!

dilanesp · 05-06-2018, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Yes. I love the horses. I don't bet anything else, the horses are the appeal. But I'm a player and I don't get into the state of mind you are in regarding the horses. You are taking a figure for a horse personally. I think the public butthurt just shows you are not much of a player but definitely fanboy emotional teenage girl mentality central!

Yep.

I would also say this. If a player really thinks a Beyer is inaccurate, that's good information! Identifying inaccurate Beyers is a valuable skill, not a reason to be upset.

CincyHorseplayer · 05-06-2018, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Yep.

I would also say this. If a player really thinks a Beyer is inaccurate, that's good information! Identifying inaccurate Beyers is a valuable skill, not a reason to be upset.

Exactly. I occasionally get emotional about horses. I cried watching American Pharoah win the Triple Crown, especially because I was born in 1973 and Secretariat after a drought and my grandson was born in 2015! I loved Rachel Alexandra and it was painful to watch her as a 4yo. I'm not randomly emotional about the horses though. Especially when it's just a fig assigned. That's over the top to me!

f2tornado · 05-06-2018, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Yep.

I would also say this. If a player really thinks a Beyer is inaccurate, that's good information! Identifying inaccurate Beyers is a valuable skill, not a reason to be upset.

Funny. I got barked at in this forum for suggesting the Santa Anita Derby figure was a little inflated now there's an argument for figure deflation. I question figures all the time. I disagreed with Chrome's weak figure in the Derby. No use getting wound up over it. I can make my adjustments in subsequent race. I think the 103 this year is fair but certainly with a margin of error. The raw time was about the same as Super Saver who grabbed a 104. Equibase rated this year's renewal a 110. Both ratings pretty par for the race. Also how I viewed the results.

CincyHorseplayer · 05-06-2018, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Funny. I got barked at in this forum for suggesting the Santa Anita Derby figure was a little inflated now there's an argument for figure deflation. I question figures all the time. I disagreed with Chrome's weak figure in the Derby. No use getting wound up over it. I can make my adjustments in subsequent race. I think the 103 this year is fair but certainly with a margin of error. The raw time was about the same as Super Saver who grabbed a 104. Equibase rated this year's renewal a 110. Both ratings pretty par for the race. Also how I viewed the results.

F2 just want to say for the record I always enjoy your company during the chase. We might land elsewhere on bets but the passion is the same. I dig it!

dilanesp · 05-06-2018, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Exactly. I occasionally get emotional about horses. I cried watching American Pharoah win the Triple Crown, especially because I was born in 1973 and Secretariat after a drought and my grandson was born in 2015! I loved Rachel Alexandra and it was painful to watch her as a 4yo. I'm not randomly emotional about the horses though. Especially when it's just a fig assigned. That's over the top to me!

I can get emotional at the really big stuff. I saw the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer BC Classic at Gulfstream. That was something. I really didn't care how my bets did that day.

And more generally, when two horses hook up at the 3/16th pole and dig in and duel through the stretch, that is tremendously exciting, even if they are $20,000 claimers and I don't have either one.

f2tornado · 05-06-2018, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

F2 just want to say for the record I always enjoy your company during the chase. We might land elsewhere on bets but the passion is the same. I dig it!

Did you hit? I did play the favorite with GM and Vino. Collected enough on the exacta to make a couple car payments. Wife said I should have played the super but I would have had a hard time putting the 15 in there.

Preakness is probably mostly a watch and enjoy race unless I can play some cold gimmicks or have a bomber under play. Belmont is often more interesting.

PowerUpPaynter · 05-06-2018, 03:36 PM

the Preakness is gonna be the worst betting race of the year... Pick 4 or bust

clicknow · 05-07-2018, 03:40 AM

Best horseplayer i ever knew, who was a pro and supported wife and 4 children IN STYLE with horse betting, was both a player and also able to be emotional about many of the horses. Didn't cloud his judgement at all.

The idea that emotions, combined with mathematical/analytical prowess, are somehow mutually exclusive makes no sense to me, but having both together is something not everyone can pull off.

Rain Man was quite deficient on "feeling emotions" side. That is a pretty serious deficiency, unless the only thing you do in life is crunch numbers and facts.

Arguing for a horse, even a single horse, is something that I find gallant. Since figures assigned them follow them in history, I would want them to reflect an accurate picture, not somebody else's picture.

What constitutes "really big stuff" is in the mind of the beholder.

upthecreek · 05-07-2018, 06:10 AM

6 probables so far

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._taking_shape#

sammy the sage · 05-07-2018, 07:09 AM

Question...since jinx's are being broken...or streaks....ect...

How Many Derby winner;s ran on a SLOPPY Churchill track came back to win to win the Preakness...and how many did NOT???

Very interesting....and if you watched the Video of Justify & Bob Baffert on Sunday....day after....showing him off to the crowd....things might get interesting after all...

video already posted in THIS thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144730

letswastemoney · 05-07-2018, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Question...since jinx's are being broken...or streaks....ect...

How Many Derby winner;s ran on a SLOPPY Churchill track came back to win to win the Preakness...and how many did NOT???

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With Always Dreaming, I think it was more Todd Pletcher not being able to wheel back a horse in 2 weeks than a sloppy track. He already ran a top race in the Florida Derby, so there was no reason for Always Dreaming to fail at Pimlico on dry dirt.

Grits · 05-07-2018, 11:14 AM

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/h...ify-preakness-