Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-20-2017, 12:07 PM   #1
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
Preakness undercard play along

Race #4

confederate is third off a layoff and in his second back, he matched his top from last year. Ready to move ahead. and he run two 9 furlong races to build stamina and his works are good - a five furlong and a bullet 3f this week.

The has better figures, and he just set a new top, but around 1 turn on a moist track.

NO brainer at the odds.


5W15P
Ex box $5
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 05-20-2017 at 12:08 PM.
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 12:11 PM   #2
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,269
Greetings from Pimlico y'all! Cool and breezy overcast day. Track is currently muddy but they're working the hell out of it and we should be good soon and then fast later on. Good luck to all and I'll try to post some updates later in the day
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 12:19 PM   #3
rsetup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,037
Race 4

, Jamminwithbrandon

, Dharmaster
rsetup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 12:33 PM   #4
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Race #4

5W15P Bet $20 Ret $54
Ex box $5 Bet $10, Ret $0

+24 on the day
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 12:40 PM   #5
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
Race #5

My odds line

5-1
7-1

Tough race - looking for either the 6 to speed pop or the 5 to pick them off late.


If either makes the cut, 5W15P
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:01 PM   #6
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
Not sure anyone riding harder than Saez this year. Would have preferred the 7 win race 4.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:21 PM   #7
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
6th race Box and to win
to start the P4
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:24 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
everyone but 8 and 13 for this pick3 in race6

not sure if I think it's a chaos race, or if I just was clueless.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:28 PM   #9
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
Pass R#6 - no good opinions
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:35 PM   #10
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
Rest of P4 goes as follows.







Exacta box

Exacta box

to win.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 05-20-2017 at 01:42 PM.
Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 01:53 PM   #11
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
R#7

Beyer-wise, it is a two horse race with one who could have an outside chance.

Paired up 95 tops last tow off a short freshening.
My rule of thumb is two and through, ala Point Given. But the short layoff might be a plus rather than a negative. My odds line says 1.6 is fair, but I want 5-2 minimum.

Show the second best figs at 6 and 7 furlongs, has been in routes and I love cut backs with competitive sprint numbers. TFUS pace figures for his last two routes have towering over this field. I'll take 3-1 even though my odds line say I need 5-1

A forging horse on the edge of the top two in figs.
Beyer of 66-70-72-83-89. Four or five points more is not out of the questions today. this will be faster race than he won last time. Odds line says 5-1

I actually bet Three rules in the FOY. His 94 in the Swale set him up to move ahead. His pace figures in the two routes confirm that he did and is now on a higher level.

I am not going to get my odds on Three Rules, so I will take who is 7-1 right now. His big win last out followed by a trip here today is enough to make 7-1 look good. The jovk change is a good thing, too.

5W15P

Add an x box.../ for $5
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 05-20-2017 at 01:57 PM. Reason: added a bet
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 02:08 PM   #12
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
i think will run better today /theory
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 02:10 PM   #13
johnhannibalsmith
Registered User
 
johnhannibalsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
I don't know how good or bad Proforma is, but at 7 or 8-1, I might be willing to pay to find out.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."

-Robert James Smith, 1989
johnhannibalsmith is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 02:15 PM   #14
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,810
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
R#7

5W15P Bet $20

Add an x box.../ for $5 Bet $10
+$24 going in, -$6 coming out. Just like last night t the bar.

Did Irad ride both 1 and the 2? Both lost the race 100 yards out of the gate

7 was the only one who was an overlay on my odd line. You Make lines for a reason. At 5-2, that would have been $20W on the 7.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 05-20-2017 at 02:18 PM.
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2017, 02:24 PM   #15
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
8th at Pimlico. Betting to win

Andy Asaro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:55 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.