Holy u know what

[ultracapper]

End of the month. Time to take account.

1/1/2018 to 7/31/2018

My ROI is

tada

.58

ULTRACRAPPER

I knew I was having a hard time of it this spring and summer, but I've gone from .93 end of April to THIS. There was a reason I haven't looked since 4/30/18.

Hope some of you have better news than this.

[jay68802]

July 1-31


Wagered:

$1844.00

Returned:

$1841.20

So close yet so far away.

[ultracapper]

Since 5/1/2018 to today, for every dollar I've bet, I've gotten a return of 27.8 cents. Gawd-almighty.

Believe me, this is the only place on earth I could admit this. I know you all understand. The rest of the world would tell me I'm insane continuing to play this game.

Maybe you all will too. I don't know.

I'm freakin' stunned. I never thought I'd see a run like this again. I bet I haven't had a 3 month run like this in a decade.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by jay68802

July 1-31


Wagered:

$1844.00

Returned:

$1841.20

So close yet so far away.

$2 show on that nice 10/1 and you're starting from scratch.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Since 5/1/2018 to today, for every dollar I've bet, I've gotten a return of 27.8 cents. Gawd-almighty.

Believe me, this is the only place on earth I could admit this. I know you all understand. The rest of the world would tell me I'm insane continuing to play this game.

Maybe you all will too. I don't know.

I'm freakin' stunned. I never thought I'd see a run like this again. I bet I haven't had a 3 month run like this in a decade.

I once played a pick three (4x5x2). There was a total of 25 horses in the three races. Did not have 1 horse on my ticket finish in the top 4. Two weeks later hit 8 of 9 races on one card at CD.

[ultracapper]

I normally wouldn't do this, but it's so comical, I'm going to lay it out there.

This will make a lot of stomachs hurt, but it will also give you a lot of hope since a guy like me is actually out there.

Since May1, I have placed $25,360 of bets and cashed $7,057.70 of tickets.

For those of you that would like to take advantage of this free money, you will find me in the win and place pools in SoCal, playing maidens and N2Ls.

"If you want it, here it is, come and get it."

WOW!! I'm just rocked.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I once played a pick three (4x5x2). There was a total of 25 horses in the three races. Did not have 1 horse on my ticket finish in the top 4. Two weeks later hit 8 of 9 races on one card at CD.

The game has it's flows, that's for certain.

It'll straighten out. I know that. But this is beyond any luck variances or anything like that. This is just straight up POOR PLAY.

[Robert Fischer]

First thought was you are in a cold spell reaching for multis (p4, p5, p6)
However, I read that you are W/P SoCal player.

Is this your W/P?

ROI should be higher than $0.59 or -$0.41 simply randomly betting a contender.

If that ROI is from betting Win & Place, and I work backwards...

f ⁻¹ How can I win W/P? = How can I lose (or underperform) W/P

brainstorm;
i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶c̶h̶o̶o̶s̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶o̶r̶s̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶?
e̶x̶t̶r̶e̶m̶e̶ ̶e̶x̶a̶m̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶b̶a̶d̶ ̶l̶u̶c̶k̶?̶
money management needs tweaking?
betting every race?

Probably can safely eliminate the first two ideas. Have you been over-betting, or have your losses been disproportionate(usually from increasing wagers to chase a loss)?

On the year I am $1.09 win and I don't wager to place. I'm a low-stakes player, not a 'whale' or 'shark' or whatever. July was a solid month, renewed my interest in the game and top circuits a bit. Planning to increase the stakes a little and move from nickel-and-dime ADW play to an OTB.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

End of the month. Time to take account.

1/1/2018 to 7/31/2018

My ROI is

tada

.58

ULTRACRAPPER

I knew I was having a hard time of it this spring and summer, but I've gone from .93 end of April to THIS. There was a reason I haven't looked since 4/30/18.

Hope some of you have better news than this.

Let me give some advice based on being a successful, winning horse player for the last 10 of my 40 year career.

Start Over !!

[ultracapper]

Seriously, it's been a lack of attention and effort. If you would have asked me how much I had bet over the past 3 months, I would have said probably half that. I just let a bunch of $X bets here and there pile up, making way more than I thought I had. Took my eye off the ball really. Last week I put $50 on a horse because of some stupid remark Todd made just as I flipped on TVG. That kind of mindless stuff adds up when you're not paying attention.

Really, it's like you couldn't lose at that pace if you tried, but I did.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Seriously, it's been a lack of attention and effort. If you would have asked me how much I had bet over the past 3 months, I would have said probably half that. I just let a bunch of $X bets here and there pile up, making way more than I thought I had. Took my eye off the ball really. Last week I put $50 on a horse because of some stupid remark Todd made just as I flipped on TVG. That kind of mindless stuff adds up when you're not paying attention.

Really, it's like you couldn't lose at that pace if you tried, but I did.

My sense is you're going to be fine. Rare is the day when someone has the self awareness and introspection to admit to what we've all done.

That's the way I tend to bet sports.

Needless to say I suck at it.

[098poi]

This is interesting. I decided to like at my Twinspires history. I normally don't bet. I go in and out of funding my account. My history only goes back to the beginning of the year. I was surprised. My total wagers were $1417.00. It looks like I deposited about $660.00 and I can't tell if I had some in from last year. My Win% was 23 but I usually bet 2 horses to win and occasional exacta so that doesn't tell me much.


My return was terrible so I too had a big loss on the dollar.
My current balance is $.90.



The good news is when I sort by wager I made 25 Show bets and won 12 for 48%. Wagered $61 and returned $56.90.

8 wins were over $3.00 and 2 of those were $11.60. I don't know what my method was at those times but if I was a little more discerning on the odds I might be on to something.


(I had no idea I made so many Show bets!)



Keeping records is a must I guess but the truth hurts sometimes.

[TrackingTVG]

My 2018 mountaineer stats:

2018 Mountaineer stats:

Pick 5: Risk $1286.50, ret $90.50
Pick 4: Risk $191, ret 0
Win: Risk $400, ret $564
Exacta: Risk $78, ret $0
Tri: Risk $8, ret $0
Super: Risk $12, ret 0
Show: Risk $50, ret $80

Total: Risk: 2025.50, ret $734.50




Absolutely horrible, especially considering it’s a track I just play at night for action

[WP1981]

Martingale time. Keep doubling and hammer away.

Only problem will be lowering the base back down when you hit..which could come 3 times in one card.

I am with Vic in theory. Trust the process.

[martini]

I don't play much, but had a decent weekend. From checking my Twinspires data on the year, it's 131 bets, $1500.60 wagered, $2709.42 payoff, and a $1 ROI of +0.81. Before the weekend it was +0.38.

I'm losing about 4 of 5 bets that I've placed: 19.85% win percentage. I think anyone who is keeping their head above water in this game should feel happy.