Questions about Firenze Fire/Jason Servis

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

The fact is that there are jurisdictions that don't allow this, and I thought NYRA was one of them and shocked to find out they aren't.

Shocked he was! If you follow racing and are on a racing board such as this one all the time, how you could have been shocked or even surprised is the real shocking element to all of this.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Justify would have lost badly to Firezne Fire had he been in that race.

Secretariat would have lost badly had he been in the race

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

What does this have to do with anything?

The point is that Mott was suspended yet his barn continued normal operation. Now, to most people, they don’t see that as much of a punishment, instead it looks more like a vacation.

I thought NYRA was smarter than this.

If the ceo of google or ibm or aapl go to jail , do you expect the companies to stop doing business.



Presumably, any monies earned go to the sub trainer during this period. That's the punishment, along with the stigma, such as it is.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If Justify is not retired he is very likely to run faster speed figures when he returns..

The pace of the Derby was very fast and all the chasers other than Good Magic collapsed.

The pace of the Preakness wasn't as fast, but it was very competitive and got pretty hot in the middle against another high quality 3yo.

I personally think the Belmont Beyer was a few points light, but even if not, 12F doesn't tell us much.

I think his entire Triple Crown series is a bit better than it looks. He's also going to benefit from the rest and development process that FF just went through. I'd really like to see him come back just to see if can make a solid jump. I'd have to think he can handle a horse like the improved Firenze Fire (who got a nice setup Saturday).

I dont think that large of a bet was made if there was any doubt that horse could lose, not sure it mattered who was in the field. The horse wasnt even all out really. My point was more about the over the top nature of the "sure thing" than anything specifically about Justify.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Shocked he was! If you follow racing and are on a racing board such as this one all the time, how you could have been shocked or even surprised is the real shocking element to all of this.

There has been a move towards disallowing this from happening anymore. Who was it who was suspended and it was a big deal because the trainer was complaining on behalf of his employees who had no work when his horses moved barns?

It was only a week, so I’m fine and all should be ok for the horses to stay in the barn, but they shouldn’t have been able to run during that time. And I really doubt the assistant paid all the employees that week from her own money, and she billed all the horse owners for that week’s training fees and other bills, etc.

[SaratogaSteve]

where can you access this tote data that Finley quoted, and shown in the twitter reposts?

Thanks

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Secretariat would have lost badly had he been in the race

But we would have gotten 5-1 on him!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by SaratogaSteve

where can you access this tote data that Finley quoted, and shown in the twitter reposts?

Thanks

The host track's audit trail.

Good luck.

[RunDustyRun]

So the DRF "believes" all bets were made by computer without any supporting evidence...yea that's the ticket...hide behind the computer syndicate excuse all you want but the only thing that adds up is that some insiders knew the horse WOULD NOT LOSE and unloaded accordingly on both the win end and on the exacta...crooked as hell!

[cj]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

So the DRF "believes" all bets were made by computer without any supporting evidence...yea that's the ticket...hide behind the computer syndicate excuse all you want but the only thing that adds up is that some insiders knew the horse WOULD NOT LOSE and unloaded accordingly on both the win end and on the exacta...crooked as hell!

I believe it is NYRA that "believes it, not DRF.

Though NYRA would not supply information on where the wagers were made, it is believed that all came in via computer.

NYRA didn't provide the where but I read it as they did provide the type, i.e. computer.

[RunDustyRun]

I read it as the opposite but it really doesn't matter...i would guess whoever knew the fix was in would rather bet online as to guarantee the bet goes through seconds before post

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

I read it as the opposite but it really doesn't matter...i would guess whoever knew the fix was in would rather bet online as to guarantee the bet goes through seconds before post

Also a large rebate, on a large bet. Simple. Only suckers bet at the track

[papillon]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I read metro's earlier post...but the proof isn't there that the 60K late wager was placed by a computer group. If metro is right, and the computer group had a betting interest in 3 horses in that race...then, why did the late-late money avoid the other 2 horses?

There is good discussion on this over at Thorograph.

The $60k was 12 $5k bets made at the track at 0 MTP.

One of the guys over there has been in touch with NYRA and apparently the gaming commision is looking into it.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by papillon

There is good discussion on this over at Thorograph.

The $60k was 12 $5k bets made at the track at 0 MTP.

One of the guys over there has been in touch with NYRA and apparently the gaming commision is looking into it.

At the TRACK? Wasn't it reported that the money was bet by computer?

[Track Phantom]

I've read as much as I can on the FF subject. My conclusion is now this:

* Computer programs came in and did their thing in the last 30 seconds knocking FF down to their expected 7-2 odds based on other pools
* Someone on track, most likely someone affiliated with Servis, put twelve $5,000 bets through the window in the final 20 seconds.
* The combination of the two knocked FF down dramatically, more than what the computer programs would of/could of predicted

Identifying the on-track $60,000 win bettor is the key component here. While it's not illegal to bet $60,000 on a horse at the last second, it is illegal if it is part of a bigger betting coup with drug aided advantage given to FF. The fact that the trainer, Servis, said in an interview after the fact that he had "no idea" FF would run like that means he should not be part of the betting coup in anyway. Would seem highly improbable that the trainer didn't know the horse was going to run that way but some random bettor did.

Oddly, two of the most detrimental things crippling the game collided on one horse last Saturday. Computer batch betting and performance enhancing drugs. The cosmic blast it created in the industry is a perfect time to address both. However, if you've followed this game, you'll know that most that could do something will wait out the noise and not expose the problem.

BAU in a week or so.