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12-31-2020, 10:44 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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HONG KONG SHA TIN FRI -1/1/21
Good evening & Happy New Year to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Ill be posting my pre-race as well as some of the live updated selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 11 races at Sha Tin with All races on Turf .
Post Time Race #1 11:30 PM THURS EST
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, Ill also be posting some live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis can certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I cant make a Dutch Win bet Ill generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.
For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).
Good Luck if youre playing!
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12-31-2020, 11:23 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Preliminary Selections for ALL 11 races w/ some Updates to Follow:
R#1-1200M C4 (6F)T
.............8-12-2 W/ 14-3-9
R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T
....1-6-2 W/ 3-11-5
R#31000M C3 (5F)T
..1-4-2 W/ 5
R#4- 1800M C5 (9F)T
....1-3-11 W/ 14-9-2
R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T
....1-12-7 W/ 5-9-11
R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T
..3-4-8 W/ 10-13-12
R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
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1-2-7 W/ 5-4-6
R#8- 1400M GR3 (7F)T
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..
.7-8-4 W/ 3-2
R#9- 1200M C2 (6F)T
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3-2-5W/ 7-6-14
R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T
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13-3-5 W/ 8-7-12
R#111600M C2 (8F)T
...2-8-3 W/ 12-9-7
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12-31-2020, 11:37 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
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R#1-1200M C4 (6F)T
.............8-12-2 W/ 14-3-9
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8-10-14-6 Dutch WIN 13% Profit Margin - PASSED / No action on the HUGE LS Placer
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12-31-2020, 11:55 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE---R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T
.1-6-2 W/ 11-3-4
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01-01-2021, 12:08 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE---R#2-1400M C4 (7F)T
.1-6-2 W/ 11-3-4
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6-11-4-7 Dutch WIN 42% Profit Margin - PASSED / $16.20 Quinella & $211.40 Triple BX
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01-01-2021, 12:37 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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R#31000M C3 (5F)T
1-4-2 W/ 5
5-4-2-3 Dutch LOSS 1% Profit Margin - PASSED / $19.30 Quinella & $259.20 Triple BX
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01-01-2021, 12:56 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE---R#4- 1800M C5 (9F)T……1-8-9 W/ 14-11-3
Last edited by Nitro; 01-01-2021 at 12:57 AM.
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01-01-2021, 01:08 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE---R#4- 1800M C5 (9F)T
1-8-9 W/ 14-11-3
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3-14-7-1 Dutch LOSS 183% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $48.90 Quinella
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01-01-2021, 01:25 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE--- R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T
1-5-11 W/ 7-9-2
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01-01-2021, 01:39 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE--- R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T
1-5-11 W/ 7-9-2
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11-1-9-12 Dutch WIN 34% Profit Margin - PASSED / $13.40 Quinella & $649.60 Triple BX
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01-01-2021, 01:55 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE--- R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T
3-8-10 W/ 12-4-1
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01-01-2021, 02:17 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE--- R#6- 1200M C3 (6F)T
3-8-10 W/ 12-4-1
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12-14-7-3 Dutch LOSS 34% Profit Margin - PASSED / No action on the LS Placer
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01-01-2021, 02:30 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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UPDATE--- R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T……1-4-7 W/ 5-13-6
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01-01-2021, 02:47 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
UPDATE--- R#7 1200M C3 (6F)T
1-4-7 W/ 5-13-6
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7-13-5-1 Dutch WIN 33% Profit Margin - PASSED / $53.90 Quinella & $560.60 Triple BX & ($2,088.00 Quartet Bx) All of that one!
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01-01-2021, 03:11 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,949
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Quote:
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R#8- 1400M GR3 (7F)T
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...
.7-8-4 W/ 3-2
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5-8-4-3 Dutch LOSS 11% Profit Margin - PASSED / Lots of very late action on the LS Winner
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