Wagering Strategies for Derby Day

[pktruckdriver]

I am back and well I was just curious in the different types of wagers you will be doing during Derby days, yes Friday and Saturday.

There are the small 100.00 bankrolls

the 500.00 bankroll

the 1000.00 bankroll

Anything above this is well way above this poor minions abilities, but you can still put it out there if you want to share with us.

With the various wagers , pick 3 , pick 4 , pick 6 and of course the Exacta , Tri and Superfecta , having the right strategies can make for a better chance of a hit than having the wrong strategy.


some ideas are as follows

Pick 3 3x3x3 for a 1.00 = 27.00 say 10 races is 270.00 for the day

Superfecta ABCDE/ABCDE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ 1.00 = 112.00

( Now even if we changed this 4th leg in 1st position , etc.. would be up to a few more 112.00 say 224.00 per play)

Exacta ABCDE/FGHIJ 1.00 FOR 25.00 reversed 25.00
(this wager could have top 5 odds over top 5 lowest odds and reversed)


Just a few ideas, anybody have any other please....

Patrick

[SecretAgentMan]

1/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 cost is $56 for a $1 triple

One horse over 8 in 2nd & 3rd

I always only play one horse on top.

A $1 super with same 8 horses in bottom 3 spots cost a bit over $300

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

1/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9/2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 cost is $56 for a $1 triple

One horse over 8 in 2nd & 3rd

I always only play one horse on top.

A $1 super with same 8 horses in bottom 3 spots cost a bit over $300

This year I don't think eight is enough.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

This year I don't think eight is enough.

You're probably right, & a better method is to puck horses by names, or whatever to put underneath. My question is, will both Mohaymen & Nyquist both be in the money?

There's a chance only of of those makes it in, & if both are out, the exotics will light up the tote board.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I am back and well I was just curious in the different types of wagers you will be doing during Derby days, yes Friday and Saturday.

There are the small 100.00 bankrolls

the 500.00 bankroll

the 1000.00 bankroll

Anything above this is well way above this poor minions abilities, but you can still put it out there if you want to share with us.

With the various wagers , pick 3 , pick 4 , pick 6 and of course the Exacta , Tri and Superfecta , having the right strategies can make for a better chance of a hit than having the wrong strategy.


some ideas are as follows

Pick 3 3x3x3 for a 1.00 = 27.00 say 10 races is 270.00 for the day

Superfecta ABCDE/ABCDE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ 1.00 = 112.00

( Now even if we changed this 4th leg in 1st position , etc.. would be up to a few more 112.00 say 224.00 per play)

Exacta ABCDE/FGHIJ 1.00 FOR 25.00 reversed 25.00
(this wager could have top 5 odds over top 5 lowest odds and reversed)


Just a few ideas, anybody have any other please....

Patrick

Before deciding about your betting strategy (whether for the Derby or for a Monday afternoon) you need to specify your objectives.

The vast majority of bettors do not have a realistic and direct answer to what the their goals as bettors are. We can separate them to two very broad categories: Those who are betting solely for "fun" and those who are focusing on making a profit.

If you are viewing the game like some sort of a consuming product trying to maximize the duration of your bankroll until you get broke, you belong in the former category while if you are trying to maximize your expected value in the latter.

Specifically talking about the Derby, although one of the most prestigious races it does not necessary present a great betting proposition. The large size of the field and the increased possibilities for many of the starters to run the best race of their lives, usually convert its outcome to an extremely unpredictable event that is very difficult to extract some EV out of it.

Since you are restricting your bankroll to only $1K, I believe that your best strategy is simply to pass the Derby and focus on some of the other good quality races of the weekend, trying to find a few horses that will present an optimal ratio of positive over negative angles. Find them and take your chances with them.

Stay far from complicated bets and refuse to spread. A very simple approach, like betting your picks TO WIN and possibly run some WIN parlays is your best approach. To do so, you need to fight against your addiction to make a lot of "action" bets and be prepared to loose you full $1K mini bankroll just be betting two or three races.

Having said these, I believe that following the described approach is extremely difficult for the average horse bettor, who refuses to learn from hist mistakes and keeps on repeating the same weak betting execution over and over, trying to satisfy his addiction for action.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The daily double, I think, is a decent wager provided it pays more than a simple parlay.

[jtschmidt]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

The daily double, I think, is a decent wager provided it pays more than a simple parlay.

I think the Double takeout is higher the Win takeout which sometimes makes it harder to pay more than the parlay.

[AirNate012]

I do wish I could play a 5x5x10x10 $1 super for $112 though. I think you meant $.10 cents? And we can't play $.10 centers in the Derby.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by jtschmidt

I think the Double takeout is higher the Win takeout which sometimes makes it harder to pay more than the parlay.

Is twice 17% more than once 20%?

[dballard125]

I'll be betting the Oaks/Derby double.

Keying Nyquist over 4-5 in an exacta, as a saver bet...contingent on him drawing decent.

Then firing on tri's and super's that I think have a shot at serious payoffs.

I look at the Derby as an annual horseracing lottery. I'm either going to lose $300 or make thousands. There is no in between.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Before deciding about your betting strategy (whether for the Derby or for a Monday afternoon) you need to specify your objectives.

The vast majority of bettors do not have a realistic and direct answer to what the their goals as bettors are. We can separate them to two very broad categories: Those who are betting solely for "fun" and those who are focusing on making a profit.

If you are viewing the game like some sort of a consuming product trying to maximize the duration of your bankroll until you get broke, you belong in the former category while if you are trying to maximize your expected value in the latter.

Specifically talking about the Derby, although one of the most prestigious races it does not necessary present a great betting proposition. The large size of the field and the increased possibilities for many of the starters to run the best race of their lives, usually convert its outcome to an extremely unpredictable event that is very difficult to extract some EV out of it.

Since you are restricting your bankroll to only $1K, I believe that your best strategy is simply to pass the Derby and focus on some of the other good quality races of the weekend, trying to find a few horses that will present an optimal ratio of positive over negative angles. Find them and take your chances with them.

Stay far from complicated bets and refuse to spread. A very simple approach, like betting your picks TO WIN and possibly run some WIN parlays is your best approach. To do so, you need to fight against your addiction to make a lot of "action" bets and be prepared to loose you full $1K mini bankroll just be betting two or three races.

Having said these, I believe that following the described approach is extremely difficult for the average horse bettor, who refuses to learn from hist mistakes and keeps on repeating the same weak betting execution over and over, trying to satisfy his addiction for action.

Betting strategy:
$2 win a/b $4
$1 ex a/b $1
$1 ex box a/b $2
$1 tri a/b/c $1
$1 tri a/b/cd $2
$1 tri ab/ab/c $2
$1 tri ab/ab/cd $4
$1 super a/b/c/d $1
$1 super a/b/cd/cd $2
$1 super ab/ab/cd/cd $4
------------------------------
$23 Good luck, win big!

[burnsy]

Oaks/Derby Double

Focus on the under cards each day. Its the easiest path to a profitable weekend. For all the hype, talk and "fluff" given to the two features.........there will be overlays abound. My key bets are exactas, doubles and pick 3's with a couple tri's. If I really like anything that's 5-2 or over, I bet win and place too.

Tying yourself to the obvious races and obvious favorites is usually a good recipe for losing even if you cash a ticket or two. I'm looking to cash one good ticket and kicking back a few.....along with a good meal. That's how I play the game, if I hit one, I'm probably in the black for the day.

[barahona44]

I only place Al Davis type bets:

"Just win, baby"!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Superfecta ABCDE/ABCDE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ 1.00 = 112.00

If you like some long shots , this pyramid structure works fine

If you are zeroed in on a couple chalky horses or 1 big longshot that you think can only run 3rd or 4th - then you're better off doing a double key or something and betting it multiple times for the same cost

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I'll be betting the Oaks/Derby double.

Keying Nyquist over 4-5 in an exacta, as a saver bet...contingent on him drawing decent.

Then firing on tri's and super's that I think have a shot at serious payoffs.

I look at the Derby as an annual horseracing lottery. I'm either going to lose $300 or make thousands. There is no in between.

See this my thought also