Derby handicapping approach-no race like it.

[pktruckdriver]

Steve Byk, great radio show, pretty darn good handicapper too, sorry not too sure of his Derby record, but 1 things is for sure he can handicap Saratoga very well. His insight and guests are extremely informative and have resulted in many great wagers that cashed at great prices, thank you Steve!!

As for the Deby everyone knows my obsession with this race, and now-a-days having OCD is kinda the in thing, so it doesn't bother me to be here this year playing the race and the undercard too.

The Pools and the opportunities speak for themselves, the payouts can be life changing for us minions, but the real fun is trying and playing it each year it comes around.

patrick

[AndyC]

Just wondering how all the uninformed money did yesterday. With the first 4 favorites finishing in order it would seem that the bettors were very informed.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Just wondering how all the uninformed money did yesterday. With the first 4 favorites finishing in order it would seem that the bettors were very informed.

LOL yeah.

For a race that is "unlike any other race", it sure seemed to turn out like a typical three year old stakes.

EDIT: To make a more substantive point, what has happened to Derby favorites really shows how invalid it is to make conclusions based on the small Derby sample size.

Before 2000, something like 20 straight Derby favorites lost. This became part of the folk wisdom of the race. "Don't bet the favorite!". (Two corrollaries were "don't bet the 2 year old champion" and "don't bet the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. Those went out in 2007.)

In recent years, we've seen plenty of favorites winning the Derby. I'm sure that the small sample guys will start coming up with all sorts of theories why the favorites do so well. Maybe the breed has changed, too many horses are being entered with weak preparation, the gap between the top 3 year olds and the rest of them has widened, whatever.

But the obvious thing that has happened here is NOTHING. It's just statistical variance. Noise. There will be periods when lots of favorites win and periods when lots of favorites lose. And it doesn't necessarily mean ANYTHING.

Stop trying to see the pattern in the inkblot. Just handicap this thing using fundamentals. That would have gotten you to Nyquist, although the price was too short.

[horses4courses]

All the best handicappers were highlighting a lack of speed
which was likely to make the start of the race less hazardous
than most years. They were completely correct about that.

Hard to imagine a 20 horse field so well behaved running to the first turn.