Justify Beyer 101

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Equilize" is the wrong word to use in this context...as far as I am concerned. I don't subscribe to the theory that the figures of the best dirt horses must be equivalent to those of the best turfers...nor that the best routers must necessarily run equal figures as the best sprinters. At any point in time...a group of grass horses might be better than their dirt-running counterparts...or vice versa. That's the true nature of things... IMO. I, for one, don't need "equilization". I want ACCURACY.

I understand what you are saying and agree. I wasn't clear enough about what I am saying. By equalize I mean if we had a truly versatile horse he should run the same figures at 6F on the dirt, 12F on the dirt, 6F on turf, 12F on turf, 6F on synthetic etc..

It would be hard to find a horse that versatile, but there are plenty of horses with some versatility across distances and surfaces. On average those versatile horses should be earning similar figures across distances and surfaces. If they aren't, something is wrong with the charts or methodology.

I think a case can be made that changes in breeding have made it less likely to find as many 9F dirt horses that ares equally good at 12F now than years ago. On the flip side, the surfaces have changed. They are deeper. So that matters.

When I see a horse that has been very good at 9F and 10F stretch out to 12F and watch him draw off full of energy with a good closing time (American Pharoah), it's seems pretty likely to me he's also good at 12F. If his figure is noticeably lower than I expected, that suggests either a problem with the 12F chart or the figure for that race.

As to your point, turf Beyer figures at the top are a little lower than on dirt. I think that's probably sensible because dirt racing in the US is still #1 and we see many foreign turf horses come to the US and dominate the locals. That suggests they aren't as good as our dirt horses.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you believe that the country's best sprinters should be running the same speed figures as the best routers...and that the best dirt horses should be running the same speed figures as the best turf horses? THAT'S the sort of equalization "inaccuracy" that I am talking about. Does this "smoothening out" serve a useful handicapping purpose?

The best sprinters trend to be a little slower. The purses are also lower. The lower purses tend to prompt the owners and trainers of the best versatile horses to route instead because the purses are bigger.

For example, I have no doubt Justify would be a major contender in the BC Sprint, but no way he's going in that race when he can win a lot more in the Classic. That general thinking makes the Grade 1 routes better. The figures reflect that.

However, if you looked at 10k claimers with equal purses in sprints and routes, they should tend to be very similar.

[Tom]

However at the group level, I would buy that the top class horses collectively would run figures similar to the top class horses at 12 furlongs.

The distinction that is made is that the top class horses at 9 furlongs are not the same group as the top class horses at 12 furlongs.

This!

[Prioress Ply]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Justify

Beyer 103 - 97 - 101 for the Triple Crown.

As a little, but very important, reminder here are Derby Beyers 1997-2007

1997 Silver Charm 118
1998 Real Quiet 111
1999 Charismatic 107
2000 Red Bullet 109
2001 Point Given 111
2002 War Emblem 109
2003 Funny Cide 114
2004 Smarty Jones 118
2005 Afleet Alex 112
2006 Bernardini 113
2007 Curlin 111

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Prioress Ply

As a little, but very important, reminder here are Derby Beyers 1997-2007

1997 Silver Charm 118
1998 Real Quiet 111
1999 Charismatic 107
2000 Red Bullet 109
2001 Point Given 111
2002 War Emblem 109
2003 Funny Cide 114
2004 Smarty Jones 118
2005 Afleet Alex 112
2006 Bernardini 113
2007 Curlin 111

Those look like Preaknesses

[dilanesp]

Here's a monkey wrench that I remember from when I made my own figures. Due to the limited use of the turf course, the bottom of the barrel was often a much higher claiming price than on the dirt. For instance, SoCal, back then, had $10k dirt claimers, but the lowest turf claimer was $40k. As a result, a lot of those turf claimers were filled with horses who weren't worth $40k. And I had to end up making adjustments to par times to reflect that.

So if your goal is to make a dirt race equivalent to a turf race at the same class level, that may be impossible / inaccurate.

There's a lot of this that is just art and not science.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Here's a monkey wrench that I remember from when I made my own figures. Due to the limited use of the turf course, the bottom of the barrel was often a much higher claiming price than on the dirt. For instance, SoCal, back then, had $10k dirt claimers, but the lowest turf claimer was $40k. As a result, a lot of those turf claimers were filled with horses who weren't worth $40k. And I had to end up making adjustments to par times to reflect that.

So if your goal is to make a dirt race equivalent to a turf race at the same class level, that may be impossible / inaccurate.

There's a lot of this that is just art and not science.

In NY they run 25K maiden statebreds on dirt. The lowest level on turf is 40k.

It gets very tricky. One way to figure out what's going on is to track the performances of horses and see how they are actually running compared to what the figures and class designations suggest.